Subject: Y2K, you decide.
Some of you may recall that I expected that large companies would lose sight of their bottom line, have problems with back-room batch systems, inventory, and such. I also expected that the problems would take 6 to 9 months to surface.
A couple pollies in c.s.y2k used to hoot at my theory that a large company could possibly forget and natter about it's revenues, "are we making money, I sure don't know, do you?"
Well, guess what. I was wrong. It didn't take 6 to 9 months. It turns out that it can take a year or longer. Here's the story from Reuters. I've clipped in the whole thing rather than just including the link because this is big breaking story and not a manifesto. Please keep
using links for the various manifestos.
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[Fair Use: Educational & Research Purposes]
Dollar General probing accounting irregularities
(UPDATE: adds closing share price)
By Anna Driver
CHICAGO, April 30 (Reuters) - Dollar General Corp. (NYSE G - news) on Monday said it is investigating accounting irregularities and possibly fraudulent behavior and will need to delay its fiscal first-quarter earnings report and restate prior results, which sent the discount retailer's shares down 31 percent.
Dollar General said it expects to restate financial statements for fiscal years 1998 and 1999 as well as unaudited financial data for the fiscal year 2000. The company has also postponed the publication of its annual report and its annual meeting.
Shares of Goodlettsville, Tennessee-based Dollar General ended off $7.38 at $16.50, a decline that shaved about $2.5 billion off its market capitalization. The stock was the second most actively traded on the New York Stock Exchange with volume of more than 19 million shares.
A company spokesman would not comment further on the investigation and said the company has not scheduled a conference call with investors and analysts. The lack of details from Dollar General contributed to the stock's weakness, analysts said.
``These things never have a good impact on the stock,'' said Mark Mandel, retail analyst with Robinson-Humphrey. ``How severe an impact it has depends on the nature and the severity of these issues, and most of us don't know what they are right now.''
Based on the company's preliminary investigation, management estimates a reduction in aggregate earnings of about 7 cents per share over the three-year period, from the previously reported three-year total of $1.81 per share.
One fund manager characterized the stock's decline as an overreaction.
``I think the punishment far exceeds the mistake,'' said Frederic Russell, chief executive and president of Frederic E. Russell Investment Management Co. ``Sure there may be other revelations that may not be savory or appealing, but I believe the chance of that is small.''
Russell, whose fund has a Dollar General stake valued at about $2.3 million, said he bought an additional 15,000 shares after news of the investigation was released.
Dollar General said the restatements are not expected to have a material effect on future earnings. It said it still backs its previous forecast for operating earnings per share of 71 to 73 cents for the current fiscal year. Analysts on average had expected a full-year 2000 profit of 73 cents a share, from a range of 70 to 75 cents a share, according to Thomson Financial/First Call.
The company's audit committee hired the law firm of Dechert Price & Rhoads to assist with its investigation and accounting firm Arthur Andersen LLP was retained as well, Dollar General said.
Dollar General and the audit committee are reviewing allegations of fraudulent behavior in connection with certain of the accounting irregularities and are reviewing the company's internal accounting controls and financial reporting processes.
Analysts speculated that the irregularity may have something to do with the way Dollar General accounts for its inventory.
``This action is unprecedented in the history of our company and is certainly regrettable,'' Cal Turner, Dollar General chairman and chief executive, said in a statement.
``I am confident that our investigation of these matters will result in a thorough review of our previously released financial statements for each period and will also establish the leadership and processes that will prevent these accounting irregularities from recurring,'' he said.
After the announcement, Moody's Investor Service said it may cut Dollar General's debt rating, affecting about $200 million in debt securities. S&P then said it may also cut the company's debt rating.
In February, Brian Burr, the company's chief financial officer, resigned and was replaced by parking industry executive James Hagan. At that time, the company described Burr as a ``management generalist'' who took on financial responsibilities.
Dollar General's annual meeting was originally scheduled for June 4, and its first-quarter earnings report was slated for May 14. Neither event has been rescheduled.
Dollar General operates more than 5,000 stores in 25 states.
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This one is fascinating for several reasons. These problems happened so early that it could be a Jo Anne Effect. The JAE was the idea developed by Jo Anne Slaven, an accountant and not a programmer, who speculated that there would be accounting errors pre-Y2K as the code attempted to slot Fiscal Year 1998 or 1999 transactions by comparing the transaction date against the end bound of either the calender year or the fiscal year.
If you had an inventory transaction for March 1999, which might be Fiscal Year 1998 (it's just a name and not a real year), the code has to compare March 1999, 9903 against the end bounds, one of which might be January 1, 2000, 0001.
Is 9903 less than 0001? No, it's not. So that inventory transaction is "lost". The pollies didn't believe that this would happen, and if it did, they thought that these problems would be uncovered in a few hours.
Even if this isn't Y2K, tell me again why it happened and why it took so long to uncover.
Dang pollies. Some kind of obscure, can't possibly happen, accounting problem just shaved 2.5 billion dollars off the value of one company. Somewhere out there, there are a bunch of poor old geezers and geezettes who just dropped from the canned tuna to the canned cat-food diet.
Dang pollies. A few more companies have problems like this and pretty soon, we'll be talking some real market losses.
When only a few JAE's surfaced, the nasty stinging pollies called Jo Anne names. Little did any of us realize that it can take years for accounting discrepancies to surface.
Why am I going on about this? Isn't Y2K over? Didn't the market keep going up, up, up? Isn't gas $.879?
Lock down time, gang. Toss a twenty into a coffee can. Roll your change. When you have 50-60 bucks, slam that into a savings account. When you get up to a grand or so, buy a six month CD. Every now and then, take the 50-60 bucks and buy some silver rounds.
Make a nice meal of pasta and that beef with red wine and cilantro recipe, I make it a buck a person for a passing-out size serving. That'd be 6 oz of meat, carrots, and a heaping plate of pasta.
We're gonna get through this. No matter how it plays out, we'll do fine and will be in a stronger position.
Take care.
Cory Hamasaki
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Message: 7
Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 00:40:52 EDT
From: vipper5555@aol.com
Subject: Re: Y2K, you decide.
Cory,
Sounds like the same problem with the construction companies I told you about yesterday if ya ask me.... Nothing noticed until end of year audits.......
Kath
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End of quoted material from Cory H.'s list
-- Paula Gordon (pgordon@erols.com), May 01, 2001