If we do nothing about Taiwan, what do we lose?

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If we (the US) decide to stand by while China takes Taiwan, what do we lose, other than some credibility for not honoring the arms-supply treaty we wrote? I ask this primarily to gain different insight into the issue. Right now, the issue is interfering w/ my family life as my wife is Chinese, and for whatever reason (personal belief, indoctrination in school) she believes that Taiwan is still a province of China, and therefore it is China's business alone how to deal with Taiwan.

-- Anonymous, April 25, 2001

Answers

We need to defend Taiwan per our agreements.

Kip

-- Anonymous, April 25, 2001


Kip: Our treaty with Taiwan only stipulates that we provide them with the weapons to defend themselves, not with our own troops. I am asking this to find out what we would lose (specifically) by staying out of that dispute. I'm not asking what would we lose as in "we have nothing to lose" but rather "what is there about Taiwan that makes it valuable to the US specifically".

-- Anonymous, April 25, 2001

IMHO Taiwan is a pain in China's butt. They practice a thing called democracy.

Kip

-- Anonymous, April 25, 2001


I'm thinking 'proximity to China.' I wonder if we have a base there as well?

Then, possibly shipping lanes that we use, or maybe our suppliers use.

-- Anonymous, April 25, 2001


China need to be knocked down a peg. If I were president I would supply Taiwan with nukes.

Kip

-- Anonymous, April 25, 2001



1) PHYSICALLY: a) Computer hardware by the bushel b) Electronic equipment suppliers c) CNC Machines (iirc) the above would be sufficient to toast the economy.

2) META-PHYSICALLY: a) Face, a LOT of it. b) Our credibility around the world (what little is left) c) We would GAIN the unfortunate reputation as CONSUMATE OATH-BREAKERS and THIS would have repercussions FAR beyond anything people could immagine (without referring to Abby or Iona).

Chuck, who figgers any discussion of the national karma of this kind of action would be sorta out of place hereabouts.

-- Anonymous, April 25, 2001


****and therefore it is China's business alone how to deal with Taiwan.**** WRONG! Its Taiwan's business how to deal with China and if they want us to help keep them a democracy, then we should. I KNOW there are a lot of wonderful Chinese people, but as long as they tolerate their gov't's actions toward the rest of the world, they must suffer the consequences. I still am boycotting China and its products. How about you? Its not easy but it can be done.

-- Anonymous, April 25, 2001

Little Pig, my understanding is that different Asian nations have near monopologies on different computer components, and that most of our mother boards come from Taiwan. It would be devastating to that industry, similar to the repercussions from the large earthquake there in 1999.

-- Anonymous, April 25, 2001

Of course, if we stand back and don't piss China off, then our access to Taiwan's products would probably continue. For that matter, we also need whatever computer components China is manufacturing.

-- Anonymous, April 25, 2001

Tiawan is a test case for Beijing. The long term view of Beijing is that they are the natural rulers for the far east. If/when they successfully retake Tiawan, they will set sights on South Korea, Japan, and the Phillipines next. Now if the USA abandons Tiawan for fear of LA getting nuked (as a PLA General has threatened) Beijing will figure that bluff will work for Japan also. Please remember that the Japanese Imperial Army killed maybe 30 million Chinese, many by biowarfare. I'll guarantee you that Chinese have NOT forgotten the "Rape of Nanking" and the rest of the Japanese Army occupation.

The real battle will come over oil. It is likely that mainland China has only rather meager oil reserves, but no one really knows but Beijing. Beijing has said it wants to establish a large strategic oil reserve. The only reason they would need this is in the event of a war with the USA. Watch the Sprately Islands conflicts very carefully, there is likely to be a lot of oil under the sea there, and it is claimed by many SE Asian nations. Watch over the next decade how aggressively Beijing fights for the offshore oil fields.

Remember that Beijing thinks in terms of hundreds of years, whilst we think only of the next Congressional Election (from a comment by Mao Tse-Dong).

-- Anonymous, April 25, 2001



Well, LP, the chinese gov considers us their enemy, and are working to neutralize our economy and military. If you have not read The Art of War, please do so. Many of China's actions become very sensible when viewed in the context of The Art of War.

Their gov wants to see how much influence they can exert on our gov. I'm glad Bush isn't letting them bully him. In the meantime, boycott Chinese goods until they learn to play nice.

Garryowen

-- Anonymous, April 25, 2001


for all their wanting to be independent, they still use China's stamps on their mail.

-- Anonymous, April 26, 2001

I was discussing this last night w/ my (chinese) wife. The reason I asked this question in he first place is her insistent belief that Taiwan has always belonged to china, and only with the US's help were they able to make any pretense at independence at all. She claims that many of the residents of Taiwan _want_ to be reunited with China, and it is only the Government who does not (because they would lose everything if they did). She does not believe that China has designs on anyplace else in Asia, that they only want to resolve this issue (which I can see would be a nagging irritant for the current regime, regardless of their ideology). Based on that article OG posted about the guide to a collapsing society, I do think that fairly soon, market forces will overcome communist ideology in China to the extent that it will render the governemnt harmless. However, in the interim, they do still pose a danger, all the more for their (not entirely misplaced) animosity at the US for infiltrating their culture with western ideology. Now, I do believe she will change her tune if China shows overt signs of having interest in territory that is _not_ traditionally theirs, but right now I think it is a delicate situation for everyone involved, simply because Taiwan _was_ originally part of China (given how close they are to the China coast, it is hard to believe they would be anything but). Our involvement traces back to the 50s and the rabid anti-communism of the time. I think with some history behind us, we can see that communism for the most part does not allow any nation to become dangerous for any great length of time, due to the inherent weaknesses of the system. China will be no different, except that unlike the soviets, who never had anything like Taiwan happen, china is going after an artificial "democracy" that we helped set up and therefore have an interest in.

Later this year, we plan to go to China, so I can meet my inlaws for the first time, although my wife and I have been together over 3 years already. Indeed, they are waiting for us to give them a date, so they can set up my wife's sister's wedding so we will be there for that too (they also want us to go through the ceremony again there for all of them) If things continue they way they seem to be, it may be too dangerous to go back, assuming they even let us. Obviously I hope for the best, but I am obviously torn between supporting my country, and wishing to meet my new family, and more to the point, I am torn between supporting my country and not wanting for my new family to get caught on the wrong end of a US MX missile.

-- Anonymous, April 26, 2001


Taiwan is not the only piece of land that used to belong to another country. Just because it used to be "owned" by China is not, by itself, a good reason to support its return. Hell, using that reasoning, do we turn over California, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, etc., to Mexico? Do we turn over Northern Ireland to Eire, even though two-thirds of the population want to stay with the UK? What about the various bits of land that have been shuffled back and forth as a result of World Wars I and II, not to mention numerous previous European wars? And do we turn back the US to Native American tribes?

China wants Taiwan back primarily because it represents an enormous loss of face. The US and Taiwan itself want Taiwan to stay independent for the same reason. You can add in other reasons if you like, but even if Taiwan didn't produce crucial materiel China would still want it back. Always bear that in mind when hearing arguments about the subject.

Little Pig, I don't envy you. I experienced discrimination in my own town because I married an American. And I experience discrimination here because I'm a foreigner! When I've been back to visit that small town, I've experienced a different kind of discrimination--I look like an American so I'm discriminated against in a slightly different way! During my first marriage, half the family wouldn't speak to me because I married a Catholic and half his family wouldn't speak to me because of my religion! In fact, they frequently conversed in Spanish, I language I didn't know. Leaving aside the obvious dangers an escalation in tension could bring, your visit to China is going to be fraught with cultural landmines. Luckily, you've had three years to learn some of the traps from your wife!

Yes, I can understand why and how your wife feels as she does. Cultural norms, set in the Hungarian and myself in our younger days, still pervade our respective values systems decades later. Luckily, Sweetie is well-read and traveled and understands us both pretty well.

I hope you get to go to China and I believe you'll have an exciting time. You'll want to go back, I'm sure. My bits of oriental art and frou-frou don't substitute for the knowledge you have, but I think I can understand some of the nuances of Chinese culture. What an adventure!

-- Anonymous, April 26, 2001


LP the history of US involvement goes back a bit further than the 50's. More like the 30's and 40's with US supporting the losing side in Sun Yat Sen and Chaing Kai Sheck [AWK can't spell them too well] (If I recall correctly). A dear family friend has an interesting Tiger tatoo on one of his shoulders and a war commendation signed by Sun Yat Sen personally.....

Chuck

-- Anonymous, April 27, 2001



Little Pig, your wife is absolutely right.
She has the advantage of knowing the history
of this conflict. Most Americans only read
the distorted views of their own media and
never venture out into the real world.
Nationalism also clouds the issue. Taiwan is
and has always been a part of China. If the
US changes its policy of accepting the One
China rule then China will have no recourse
except to invade.

-- Anonymous, April 27, 2001

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