BPA: Power grid is close to failure Vice president says network needs hundreds of miles of new lines

Bert Caldwell - Staff writer

The Northwest's transmission grid has been pushed close to failure by increased demand for power, the Bonneville Power Administration's vice president for transmission operations and planning said Tuesday.

Vickie VanZandt told the Northwest Power Planning Council that use of the grid has become so intense that operators can do maintenance only at night -- or when wires remain "hot" with electricity.

"Not to be alarmist," she said, "but the likelihood of system failure is increasing."

Bonneville owns more than 15,000 miles of transmission lines, almost 80percent of the Northwest's high-voltage capacity.

The federal agency has $5 billion invested in the system and collects $540 million in revenues annually for its use.

VanZandt said Bonneville has added almost no new wire to the grid in 14 years. And much of the system is more than 30 years old, she said.

She said operators have kept up with additional demand for transmission by adding other equipment that boosts capacity.

Patches will no longer work, VanZandt said.

To demonstrate the grid's fragility, operators used three models to predict the impact of a disruption somewhere above the California-Oregon border. All models indicated the disturbance would disappear in less than a minute.

But last summer, when lightning hit a transmission line linking Alberta and British Columbia, power fluctuations were recorded for more than two minutes.

Sensors in Phoenix detected the fault, she said. "Minor things that happen hundreds of miles away can have an impact."

VanZandt said a fault this summer in an overwhelmed California grid could trigger an event that collapses voltage all over the West.

Two similar events that did not originate in California had just that effect in 1996, she noted.

VanZandt said the region must invest in 700 miles of new line at a cost of $775 million. on a proposed RTO for the Northwest.

Memo: VanZandt said planning has been complicated by a flood of applications for generating plants in the region. Although there is little chance all 27,000 megawatts of proposed capacity will be built, each must be accommodated as transmission plans evolve, she said.

She said Bonneville estimates 5,500 megawatts of new generating capacity brought online will cover investment in new transmission. More would lower rates, she said.

Some construction is under way, VanZandt said, but Bonneville will need authorization from Washington, D.C., to borrow money that would cover expenditures for more line.

"It's essential that the Northwest get that," council member Tom Karier said after the meeting.

VanZandt's report, though grim, at least shows Bonneville has a plan for bringing the system up to date, he said.

Karier said the transmission problems have been overlooked while the region focused on the lack of new generation plants.

-- Anonymous, April 25, 2001

Answers

I wonder what they mean by "grid". The entire western grid? If not, how do they propose to segregate the area so a sudden demand or failure doesn't cascade into farther reaches?

The transmission infrastructure is missing because whoever was responsible didn't feel like spending the money, for no other reason. Actually, pretty much the answer for the rest of it as well.

-- Anonymous, April 25, 2001

Brooks, IMHO I think they mean the entire wester grid. It covers 11 states. A major failure of any one part brings down the entire grid. Domino effect if you know what I mean.

Kip

-- Anonymous, April 25, 2001

I have got to get some of that foil insulating stuff for the attic. You know damn well if that entire grid goes down--or even a part of it--there'll be a ripple effect.

-- Anonymous, April 25, 2001

Git. Do you mean tinfoil? LOL

Kip

-- Anonymous, April 25, 2001

Kip, the electric utility industry was mildly terrified of a y2k- related cascading or common mode failure that would bring down the entire grid. Much of the preparation at that time was to back off energy demands so that one section of the grid wouldn't be as likely to pull in another section. Of course, that assumes you can reduce demand to the point that this can be pulled off.

It was interesting watching the evolution of NERC's contingency plan. This basic issue stayed in the plan, but any reference to common mode failure was taken out. However, it clearly remained an issue for them.

-- Anonymous, April 25, 2001

Brooks, Unfortunatly I think it will become a major issue for the 11 western states.

Kip

-- Anonymous, April 25, 2001