SCUD - Russia marketing new one in Damascus

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Middle East Intelligence Bulletin

A monthly publication of the United States Committee for a Free Lebanon

Vol. 3 No. 4

April 2001

Russia Marketing New Scud in Damascus

by Ziad K. Abdelnour

Syrian Foreign Minister Farouq al-Shar'a must have felt an acute sense of déjà vu upon his arrival in Moscow earlier this month. The red carpet treatment he received was mirrored in the words of Russian President Vladimir Putin. "Russia and Syria are linked by bonds of long-standing friendship," said Putin on March 16. "Previously, the level of these bonds was very high. I and the Syrian president think it would be correct not only to restore the old contacts, but also to broaden them even further."1

As Putin strives to reassert Moscow's political influence in Damascus, Russian arms manufactures have begun actively marketing upgraded weapons systems to Syria. Although no shipments have been reported, the new generation of arms being peddled by Moscow could significantly enhance Syria's ability to threaten its neighbors with weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

Most notably, Moscow has offered to sell Damascus a new optically-guided Scud missile that is ostensibly capable of penetrating US and Israeli-made missile defense systems. According to Victor Solunin, the director general of Russia's Central Scientific and Research Institute of Automatics and Hydraulics, the upgraded Scud has an optically-guided warhead that disengages in the terminal phase of the missile's flight, averting incoming defensive missiles.

Solunin, whose institute has been building Scud missiles since 1968, also said that the upgraded Scud is much more accurate than its predecessors, "with a miss distance not exceeding 10 to 20 meters, irrespective of the range." The missile's optical system has a matrix photo receiver and digital mapping system, enabling it to scan terrain based on pre-programmed target information during its final approach, as well as a mid-course correction device to avoid obstacles. It is supposedly immune to signal jamming and other electronic countermeasures.

Solunin added that the missile can destroy underground bunkers and silos. "Owing to an increased weight of the explosive charge and steep approach angles, the Russian missile system is capable of destroying hardened targets," he boasted. "The number of Russian missiles required for guaranteed destruction of such targets is several times less than that of similar missiles made by other countries' manufacturers." The missile has a maximum range of only 300 km (190 miles), but this can potentially be increased to 450 km (285 miles) by adding an additional rocket stage.2

According to Russian sources, Syrian officials were given a detailed briefing on the missile in February, but there is no word yet of any purchases.3 Although Russian-Syrian arms negotiations in late 1999 fell through due to Syria's credit problems, the recent rise in oil prices has bolstered its purchasing power.

Russia has also offered to sell the Syrians an upgraded version of its ZSU-23-4M2 quadruple 23mm self-propelled anti-aircraft gun system, now designated as the ZSU-23-4M5. This new system, produced jointly by Russian and Belarus defense firms, features radar, fire-control, auxiliary power, automotive and combat compartment improvements.4 The ZSU-23-4M5 could significantly bolster Syria's ability to defend its missile arsenal from Israeli air strikes.

Defense officials in Damascus have prioritized expanding and improving the country's missile arsenal as a means of compensating for the rapid deterioration of Syria's aging air force. On paper, the Syrian air force consists of 20 MiG-29s, 35 MiG-25s, 85 Su-22s, 21 Su-24s, 44 MiG-23BNs, 90 MiG-23s and 150 MiG-21s, but the number of operational aircraft is believed to be considerably lower due to maintenance problems and a lack of spare parts.

Syria's arsenal of medium range ballistic missiles consists of around 115 Scud-C missiles (range 500 km; payload 500 kg) 190 Scud-B missiles (range 300 km; payload 985 kg). It's inventory of short-range missiles and rockets consists mainly of 90 Frog-7s (range 70 km; payload 450 kg) and about 210 SS-21s (range 120 km; payload 480 kg).

Damascus test launched two indigenously-maunfactured Scud-D (range: 700 km) prototypes in late September 2000, but it is not clear whether the missile is in production yet.

Its stockpile of chemical weapons consists of several thousand aerial bombs and 50-100 missile warheads, mostly containing Sarin nerve gas. Last year, Jane's Defence Weekly quoted American officials as saying that Syria's WMD programs, initiated by the late Syrian President Hafez Assad, "as far as we know continue under the son." The officials added that, in addition to its existing stocks of Sarin nerve gas, Damascus is close to producing weapons-grade VX nerve gas. "If they haven't already weaponized a VX warhead, they are pretty close."5 Although Syria has pursued the development of biological weapons, it has not advanced beyond the research and development phase.

Notes

1 Interfax (Moscow), 16 April 2001.
2 Space & Missile, 29 March 2001.
3 Ibid.
4 Jane's Defence Upgrades, 1 March 2001.
5 Janes Defense Weekly, 11 October 2000.


-- Anonymous, April 23, 2001


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