ET ISSUE 2155 Thursday 19 April 2001

Foot and mouth is under control, says chief scientist

THE foot and mouth outbreak is now "fully under control", the Government's Chief Scientist said today.

Professor David King delivered the news after reporting a significant drop in the daily number of cases during the past two weeks. He said at the end of last month the daily tally stood at an average of 43 new cases a day, while that had fallen to 27 by Sunday.

He said: "On the basis of the fall in the number of cases being reported, the epidemic now is fully under control. If 14-days ago we had 40 infected premises then today we should have 20 and in two more weeks we should have 10."

Prof King said the optimistic outlook could now also be applied to the worst-hit area of Cumbria. Both there and elsewhere, he said, the nationwide policy of culling infected livestock within 24 hours and animals on neighbouring farms within 48-hours, was working.

He said: "In Cumbria, the rate at which the number of cases is dropping is also a little faster than we had predicted. The disease is not spreading quite as rapidly through livestock as our model had originally shown."

The decision to slaughter those infected and healthy animals was taken after experts at both the Ministry of Agriculture and Imperial College, London, concluded it would be the best way to contain the disease.

Prof King previously warned that any delays in culling could ultimately have ended in up to half of the national herds being lost to the disease.

Prof King said the so-called "R Factor" - the number of new cases for every old case - was now 0.7. He said: "It's well below one and this is why I can confidently say this epidemic is under control. Of course, the situation is strongly regionally dependent. Devon has been a particularly difficult case all along. It's not coming down as quickly there."

He speculated that one reason for this may be because the policy of culling healthy animals on neighbouring farms had not been implemented as fully as in other areas. Prof King said: "I have now made a rather bold statement which is that it's under control but I want to say it's in the nature of epidemics that it's a bumpy ride."

He said both the weather and the very nature of statistics could still introduce some blips into the recovery. Cattle currently in barns for the winter being let out to pasture was a particular concern. He added: "I'm not predicting that it's going to be a smooth ride downwards. The risk of people not involved in livestock farming spreading foot-and-mouth disease is low.

"It is perfectly safe to visit country pubs, village tea shops, stately homes, craft fairs, country museums or anywhere else in the countryside where there is no livestock. To sum up, the evidence for optimism is growing, but we must all keep up the effort. We must not be complacent."

-- Anonymous, April 19, 2001

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ET - ISSUE 2156 Friday 20 April 2001

Foot and mouth 'has cost £20bn in lost business'

By David Brown and Charles Clover

FOOT and mouth has cost the economy £20 billion and the figure could double if the epidemic drags on until July, the Institute of Directors said yesterday.

It was the institute's bleakest assessment yet, as cases of the disease rose by 15 to 1,400. But Prof David King, the Government's chief scientist, pronounced the epidemic "fully under control". He said there had been a significant drop in the daily number of cases over the past two weeks and forecast that this would be down to one or two a day by the likely date of the election on June 7.

Leading vets and farmers' leaders disagree. They expect the epidemic to last far beyond July and perhaps until the end of the year. The institute, which represents 54,000 businesses, said the Government faced a huge demand for assistance across a wide spectrum of industry and commerce.

Agriculture apart, the worst hit sector was hotels, restaurants and distribution companies, with transport and communication enterprises, it said. The worst affected areas were the North East and Wales; least affected were London and the South East.

The institute's survey attacked the Ministry of Agriculture's handling of the crisis, particularly the long delays between diagnosis and culling. Ruth Lea, the institute's policy director, said that many of its members were seeking substantial Government aid.

"Support should include payment deferrals and rebates on VAT, rates and taxes, as well as direct compensation for lost earnings and interest-free loans." The Institute of Chartered Accountants called for a Government means-tested hardship fund for affected businesses.

Giving his confident prediction, Prof King said: "On the basis of the fall in the number of cases being reported, the epidemic now is fully under control. If 14 days ago we had 40 infected premises, then today we should have 20 and in two more weeks we should have 10."

The disease was not spreading quite as rapidly through livestock as four computer models built for the ministry had originally shown, he said. In the worst hit county of Cumbria and elsewhere, the policy of culling infected livestock within 24 hours and animals on neighbouring farms within 48 hours was working.

Prof King said the "R factor" - the number of new cases of the disease for every old case - was now 0.7 in all the worst hit regions. A factor of more than one would mean that the epidemic was growing. However, there was bound to be a "bumpy ride" when cattle in barns were put out to pasture.

"I am not predicting that it is going to be a smooth ride downwards." Prof King said that, as the epidemic came under control, it was imperative that curbs remained on the movement of people and animals. "We have to keep very, very vigilant."

Vaccination was still being considered as an option to reduce the number of cattle which had to be slaughtered in Cumbria and Devon, but Prof King stressed that this was to complement and not replace the cull policy.

The Government has placed an advertisement in today's Farmers' Weekly, seeking to reassure farmers that there is no risk to human health through vaccine entering the human food chain. The advertisement says that milk and other products produced where vaccination has taken place can be marketed under certain controls and that the Government is "listening very carefully about how vaccination might affect trade".

Prof King said that vaccinated livestock would not be allowed to enter the food chain for 30 days after the first inoculation. Such a scheme would most likely concentrate initially on cattle in Devon, where the grass grows earlier. Prof King ruled out the vaccination of fell sheep, saying that the process of rounding up the sheep increased the risk of spreading the disease.

Prof King said he had advised Tony Blair that vaccination of cattle should go ahead only if it did not interfere with the cull policy and if the farming community agreed to it. He indicated that there was some movement among reluctant farmers: "The misunderstanding of both sides over vaccinations has now been removed."

Elliot Morley, the agriculture minister, said: "Vaccination is more in the frame than it was, but we are dealing with a mindset with vets and farmers." Tim Yeo, the Tories' agriculture spokesman, said: "We hope very much that Prof King turns out to be right. However, if you are a farmer with some of the 570,000 animals currently awaiting slaughter on your farm, you may doubt whether the crisis is yet under control."

The campaign against the disease suffered a major setback when the Welsh Assembly said that 15,000 sheep buried on an Army firing range would have to be dug up and burned because they had caused pollution.

The mass burial of sheep at the Epynt range near Sennybridge in mid-Wales was stopped by Carwyn Jones, the rural affairs minister, after Ministry of Agriculture scientists found evidence of blood and body fluids in a test borehole 100 yards from the disposal site 10 days after it became operational.

The site, the focus of protests by residents, has been used for burying the carcasses of animals culled from farms adjacent to infected properties, sometimes more than 80 miles away. Cattle have always been burned at the site because of the risk of BSE, but sheep and pigs have been buried.

The Epynt site sits on the catchments of the rivers Usk and Towy, two of the cleanest rivers in Europe and both renowned as fisheries for salmon and trout. Ammonia was found in a stream that feeds into the Towy, but the Environment Agency said there had been no detectable effect on the river.

Last night, parts of Northamptonshire and Leicestershire had their "infected areas" designation lifted. These were the first infected areas where this had happened, a Maff spokesman said.

-- Anonymous, April 19, 2001

http://www.boston.com/dailynews/110/world/Disease_restrictions_ended_i n_:.shtml

Disease restrictions ended in two English counties

By Associated Press, 4/20/2001 06:22

LONDON (AP) The government said Friday it has lifted foot-and-mouth disease restrictions in two British counties the first such move since the epidemic broke out in February.

The Ministry of Agriculture said it had lifted infected-area restrictions around two farms in Leicestershire and Northamptonshire.

Restrictions ended Thursday night, hours after the government's chief scientific adviser, Professor David King, said the epidemic was ''fully under control.''

Though King said Britain had turned the corner in beating the epidemic, veterinarians are still confirming two dozen or so new cases daily about half the peak level.

Fifteen cases were confirmed in the 24 hours ending Thursday evening, raising the national total to 1,397 since the first case was confirmed on Feb. 20. Foot-and-mouth disease poses no danger to humans but it has effectively closed export markets for British livestock.

Northamptonshire and Leicestershire remain subject to general controls on livestock movement imposed on the whole country, though the stringent restrictions for designated ''infected areas'' have ended.

''Whilst our number one priority remains combating the disease in the most heavily infected areas, it is right that in areas where there have been few or no new cases we do what we can to lift restrictions,'' said Countryside Minister Elliot Morley.

Only one case of foot-and-mouth disease had been confirmed in Northamptonshire, 65 miles northwest of London, and four in Leicestershire. Restrictions were ended around a farm in Oakham, 100 miles north of London, but remained in effect around three other farms in Leicestershire, about 20 miles west of Oakham.

Regulations require two-mile protection zones and six-mile surveillance zones to be placed around infected premises.

Animals are slaughtered at the infected premises, and all susceptible livestock in the protection zone are inspected regularly for three weeks.

After that, sheep and goat herds in the protection zone are given blood tests. If all tests are negative, restrictions can be lifted no less than 30 days after the slaughter of infected animals.

In Denmark, veterinary authorities were investigating another suspected case of the disease Friday, in northwestern Denmark, and the farm was sealed off as a protective measure. Denmark, the world's largest pork meat exporter, has had four previous suspected cases that turned out to be false alarms.

-- Anonymous, April 20, 2001