Sad Statto Attackgreenspun.com : LUSENET : Unofficial Newcastle United Football Club BBS : One Thread |
Thanking you kindly macbeth.I spent much of my holiday tinkering with my spreadsheets to see if I could prove that Gullit wasn't as bad as so many of you think he was. I failed miserably, as did Ruud, but I did discover all kinds of fascinating stuff out anyway and will share this with you in manageable chunks.
First up is a really simple proportional comparison between our last four managers over the last 5 seasons.
All Competitions Manager HW NW AW HD AD HL NL AL Total Won Drawn Lost Kevin Keegan 29 0 14 3 10 4 0 15 75 57% 17% 25% Kenny Dalglish 21 1 7 6 15 11 1 14 76 38% 28% 34% Ruud Gullit 11 1 6 7 6 8 1 11 51 35% 25% 39% Bobby Robson 23 0 12 9 11 7 1 20 83 42% 24% 34% Premiership Manager HW NW AW HD AD HL NL AL Total Won Drawn Lost Kevin Keegan 24 0 11 3 7 3 0 11 59 59% 17% 24% Kenny Dalglish 14 0 5 6 12 7 0 11 55 35% 33% 33% Ruud Gullit 7 0 4 6 6 7 0 10 40 28% 30% 43% Bobby Robson 18 0 8 6 9 7 0 16 64 41% 23% 36% FAC Cup Manager HW NW AW HD AD HL NL AL Total Won Drawn Lost Kevin Keegan 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 3 0% 67% 33% Kenny Dalglish 3 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 8 63% 13% 25% Ruud Gullit 3 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 7 71% 14% 14% Bobby Robson 2 0 2 1 1 0 1 1 8 50% 25% 25% League Cup Manager HW NW AW HD AD HL NL AL Total Won Drawn Lost Kevin Keegan 2 0 3 0 0 0 0 2 7 71% 0% 29% Kenny Dalglish 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 3 67% 0% 33% Ruud Gullit 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 50% 0% 50% Bobby Robson 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 5 40% 20% 40% European Competitions Manager HW NW AW HD AD HL NL AL Total Won Drawn Lost Kevin Keegan 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 6 50% 17% 33% Kenny Dalglish 3 0 0 0 2 2 0 3 10 30% 20% 50% Ruud Gullit 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 50% 0% 50% Bobby Robson 1 0 2 2 0 0 0 1 6 50% 33% 17% It's pretty clear that the drop in quality from KK to KD is the most pronounced slide but that Gullit undoubtedly took us a bit lower before YBR provided a partial recovery. However, when you break this information down season by season the picture is rather more enlightening, but we will come to that another time. Next up will be a comparison of how often points were dropped or gained during matches under our two riders and two donkey-drovers of the apocalypse.
It is the player information which is causing me an almost continual Roger Moore expression but this info has not been completely compiled yet so there will be a delay until the closed season. Suffice to say that flabbers will be gasted and howls of protest forthcoming :-)
-- Anonymous, April 17, 2001
Very interesting Softie - a wordsmith with a spreadsheet is a very dangerous animal!Your results are broadly what I would have expected intuitively - KK was the dog's; RG was a loser.
Did you look at the stats including all of KK's tenure as Team Manager? Would looking at the entire period served by each Manager not provide a more realistic assessment of their impact? It would prove to be advantageous to KK I would think, even though he lost a few when he first came in.
Looking forward to future installments.
-- Anonymous, April 17, 2001
Softie, you wanna get out a bit more, Spreadsheets are for accountants man.
-- Anonymous, April 17, 2001
Now with added arbitrary scoring system:
All Competitions Manager HW NW AW HD AD HL NL AL Total Won Drawn Lost Score Kevin Keegan 29 0 14 3 10 4 0 15 75 57% 17% 25% 189 Kenny Dalglish 21 1 7 6 15 11 1 14 76 38% 28% 34% 142 Ruud Gullit 11 1 6 7 6 8 1 11 51 35% 25% 39% 131 Bobby Robson 23 0 12 9 11 7 1 20 83 42% 24% 34% 151 Premiership Manager HW NW AW HD AD HL NL AL Total Won Drawn Lost Score Kevin Keegan 24 0 11 3 7 3 0 11 59 59% 17% 24% 195 Kenny Dalglish 14 0 5 6 12 7 0 11 55 35% 33% 33% 136 Ruud Gullit 7 0 4 6 6 7 0 10 40 28% 30% 43% 113 Bobby Robson 18 0 8 6 9 7 0 16 64 41% 23% 36% 145 FAC Cup Manager HW NW AW HD AD HL NL AL Total Won Drawn Lost Score Kevin Keegan 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 3 0% 67% 33% 67 Kenny Dalglish 3 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 8 63% 13% 25% 200 Ruud Gullit 3 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 7 71% 14% 14% 229 Bobby Robson 2 0 2 1 1 0 1 1 8 50% 25% 25% 175 League Cup Manager HW NW AW HD AD HL NL AL Total Won Drawn Lost Score Kevin Keegan 2 0 3 0 0 0 0 2 7 71% 0% 29% 214 Kenny Dalglish 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 3 67% 0% 33% 200 Ruud Gullit 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 50% 0% 50% 150 Bobby Robson 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 5 40% 20% 40% 140 European Competitions Manager HW NW AW HD AD HL NL AL Total Won Drawn Lost Score Kevin Keegan 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 6 50% 17% 33% 167 Kenny Dalglish 3 0 0 0 2 2 0 3 10 30% 20% 50% 110 Ruud Gullit 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 50% 0% 50% 150 Bobby Robson 1 0 2 2 0 0 0 1 6 50% 33% 17% 183 Clarky, having to hold fire on the earlier seasons for now since I need to get hold of goal times to work out the more entertaining part which is who dropped the most bollocks or turned around the most sticky situations. I'll just stick with these 5 until all the info can be quantified the same way.
-- Anonymous, April 17, 2001
This seems to prove to me that KEEGAN WAS A FANTASTIC MANAGER and that we should try to persuade him to come back to newcastle next season. A BR / Keegan Partnership would win us the title.
-- Anonymous, April 17, 2001
Very interesting Softie. Perhaps YBR should be given more credit considering the dross he has had to work with? So far my flabber has not been gasted.
-- Anonymous, April 17, 2001
You na what would be also really interesting, bar playing billiards after a great session of dominoes?? ;-)Comparing the Opta data of certain players?
Seriously like comparing Solano, Beckham and Kilbane; Or Hutchinson, Speed and Lee etc. To see who is the most productive?
You could try and find patterns between a good sides back four and a bad sides back four etc.
-- Anonymous, April 18, 2001
I'm comfortable with most of what you've come up with. The only niggle would be the arbitary rating on the European games. Dalglish was manager in the Champions League all the other in the EUFA Cup. There should some sort of recognition made of that. This would also be the case if we'd played in the First Division and you tried to compare it with Premiership.
-- Anonymous, April 18, 2001
Agreed mac, hence the "arbitrary" tag. However, it's not for me to grade the different levels of Euro competition as this sector is simply checking totals of results in competetive games. Therefore the Charity Shield has not been included but the Champions' League Qualifiers against Croatia Zagreb have, despite them being excluded from most stats sources as they were preliminary to the actual Competition itself. Likewise I will include Intertoto results if we go there next season. Obviously Gullit having only 2 Euro games doesn't help for a fair comparison and I tend to concentrate on the League as an indicator of true managerial competence or lack of it - just ask Tranmere Rovers. However, the other data is interesting in a pointless way in itself.The qualitative comparisons will be coming later (when we have this season's final positions to give BR's section more meaning). These will be restricted to the Premiership and only an extremely dubious weighting system provided for Europe and the domestic Cups.
The qualitative comparisons between the players is where you can expect the most umbrage to be taken, and the stuff I'll post later which shows comebacks and games thrown away for each manager and then a season by season comparison to show rises and slumps in the stock of each manager.
-- Anonymous, April 18, 2001
The updated tables after including the results from Keegan's first 2 Prem seasons.
All Competitions Manager HW NW AW HD AD HL NL AL Total Won Drawn Lost Score Kevin Keegan 65 0 33 15 21 9 0 36 179 55% 20% 25% 184 Kenny Dalglish 22 1 7 6 15 11 1 14 77 39% 27% 34% 144 Ruud Gullit 11 1 6 7 6 8 1 11 51 35% 25% 39% 131 Bobby Robson 23 0 12 9 11 7 1 20 83 42% 24% 34% 151 Premiership Manager HW NW AW HD AD HL NL AL Total Won Drawn Lost Score Kevin Keegan 52 0 26 13 17 7 0 28 143 55% 21% 24% 185 Kenny Dalglish 14 0 5 6 12 7 0 11 55 35% 33% 33% 136 Ruud Gullit 7 0 4 6 6 7 0 10 40 28% 30% 43% 113 Bobby Robson 18 0 8 6 9 7 0 16 64 41% 23% 36% 145 FAC Cup Manager HW NW AW HD AD HL NL AL Total Won Drawn Lost Score Kevin Keegan 3 0 1 2 2 1 0 2 11 36% 36% 27% 145 Kenny Dalglish 4 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 9 67% 11% 22% 211 Ruud Gullit 3 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 7 71% 14% 14% 229 Bobby Robson 2 0 2 1 1 0 1 1 8 50% 25% 25% 175 League Cup Manager HW NW AW HD AD HL NL AL Total Won Drawn Lost Score Kevin Keegan 5 0 5 0 1 1 0 3 15 67% 7% 27% 207 Kenny Dalglish 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 3 67% 0% 33% 200 Ruud Gullit 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 50% 0% 50% 150 Bobby Robson 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 5 40% 20% 40% 140 Europe Manager HW NW AW HD AD HL NL AL Total Won Drawn Lost Score Kevin Keegan 5 0 1 0 1 0 0 3 10 60% 10% 30% 190 Kenny Dalglish 3 0 0 0 2 2 0 3 10 30% 20% 50% 110 Ruud Gullit 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 50% 0% 50% 150 Bobby Robson 1 0 2 2 0 0 0 1 6 50% 33% 17% 183
-- Anonymous, April 18, 2001