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Revised forecast says six hurricanes coming in 2001

By Associated Press, 4/6/2001 11:11

FORT COLLINS, Colo. (AP) Hurricane forecaster and Colorado State University professor William Gray is no longer predicting a quieter storm season for 2001.

The nation's pre-eminent forecaster updated his forecast on Thursday to include 10 named storms, six hurricanes and two intense hurricanes from June 1 to Oct. 30, with a good chance that a hurricane will hit the U.S. coastline.

''In general, the more active the seasons are, the greater landfall probability there is,'' Gray said.

Gray's previous report, made in December, had one less tropical storm and one less hurricane for a forecast he termed below average. The long-term average from 1950 to 1990 is 9.3 named storms, 5.8 hurricanes and 2.2 major hurricanes per year.

Gray's team typically issues forecasts four times a year.

There is a 65 percent chance a hurricane will hit the U.S. coast in 2001, Gray said. The average for the century is 52 percent. The Gulf Coast has a 37 percent chance of getting hit, compared with 30 percent for the century.

Gray said his team has seen signals for and against a strong storm season.

Signs this season are that El Nino could cause strong westerly winds that work against hurricanes, but warmer water temperatures and barometric pressures in the Atlantic Ocean suggest a more forceful season.

Except for a calm year in 1997, the last six years have been the most active on average that the Atlantic has recorded, with Hurricanes Opal, Floyd and Bret all reaching land, Gray said.

Wind patterns have kept other storms from hitting the coast.

''We've been lucky,'' Gray said. ''There were not many landfalling major storms during this very active period. It's these major storms that do 80 percent of the damage along the U.S. coast.''

With population continuing to grow in the southeast United States, hurricanes could become the biggest natural hazard to strike the country, Gray said.

''I'm quite sure that in the next 15, 20 years, we're going to see hurricane damage worse than we've ever seen it,'' he said.

-- Anonymous, April 06, 2001

Answers

Response to WEATHER: Revised hurricane forecast for 2001

Thanks, Brooks, Gray has an excellent prediction record and I start actively looking for his press releases around midsummer. The Hungarian and I check our respective emergency supplies and make sure we're as prepped as possible.

-- Anonymous, April 06, 2001