I'm a keen follower of means of giving money to bookies but I have genuinely found some wrong odds.

One of the spread bookies has expected number of points for each side in the Premiership.

We currently have 38, how many do you think we'll finish up with. Please bear in mind you have to actually score to win a game, and score 2 to win if you let the opposition score themselves.

Now we have 9 games left and having seen more than enough of the lads recently I can't actually see them ever scoring again, ever. (I keep hoping this is tempting fate but it doesn't seem to work). William Hill Index have us down to get 12 more points from our 9 games. 12 !!!!! That means winning 4 games or three wins and three draws, tee hee, what are they on. Tomorrow morning my mortgage descends on us getting less than 12 points.

-- Anonymous, March 27, 2001

Answers

Bet you I can get this on to the answers page

-- Anonymous, March 27, 2001

don't do it!

The only time in my life i put a bet on a football match was the 3-3 with Man City in 95/96 which was probably the beginning of the end...

i bet that we'd lose - we'd won the last four/five straight and i thought it had to end. I still haven't forgiven meself...

-- Anonymous, March 27, 2001

Have you seen the odds on Andy ("he's hit the corner flag again") Cole, scoring against Albania?

Will it be 13th. time lucky (even the munchkin's better than him!)?

I suppose he'll get a bag full, now I've said that!

;7)

-- Anonymous, March 28, 2001

I agree with you Mac that we aren't gonna get 12 points for the rest of the season, how do I bet on it....what the hell would I be betting on? I don't understand spread betting AT ALL... :))

-- Anonymous, March 28, 2001

I fancy us for 4 more points (one win,one draw) - and I'll be bloody delighted and immensely relieved when we get them!

-- Anonymous, March 28, 2001

4 points? i'm still not even convinced that'll be enough to be honest. I just hpoe they can pull something special out of the bag somewhere along the line - preferably against the makems...

-- Anonymous, March 28, 2001

I think we'll get 11 points from our last 9 games and I'm prepared to put my money where my mouth is. Any takers?

-- Anonymous, March 28, 2001

What's the spread Mac? Are u selling at 12? What is the buying price? Sounds like a canny bet although you'll be the only one in a bad mood on here if we suddenly put a run together!

-- Anonymous, March 28, 2001

Jonno,

isn't part of the problem that we are on a run..........?

-- Anonymous, March 28, 2001

Jonno

It's William Hill Index on 0800 300 320. They take Switch. This means they take out of your account the maximum loss (their definition, which probably means 15.5 times your unit stake) and then credit you with the winnings when you close the bet, or the final result is known.

They are offering final points totals for all sides in the Premiership on P359 on Sky Sports. We have 38 from 29 and the spread is 49.5 to 50.5 or them saying 12 as their expectation. (This is exactly the same number of extra points they expect Sunderland to get as well)

Technical bit ...... The 'problem' bookies have is that at the beginning of the season they set an expectation of number of points. Now in the First Division this may have been say 75 for Fulham, or about 2 points per home game, one per away game. As they kept on winning they had to keep upping the expectation. They do this on a game by game basis, not by standing back and saying 'oh Fulham are running away with this'. For us they have just assumed that if we get 38 from 29 we'll get the same ratio over the rest of the season.

Our extra bit of knowledge is that we know Newcastle are hopeless at the moment and that the chances of us getting three or more wins is negligible. (We've only beaten Leeds, Coventry and Bradford since November).

Note ..... In spread betting the worst possible scenario happens surprisingly often !!

-- Anonymous, March 28, 2001

Like min, I just couldn't bet on the Toon failing. Knowing my luck, they wouldn't get another point, I'd make a killing from the bookie, but it wouldn't cheer me up one little bit - in fact, I'd feel I'd caused it!
Having said that I'm certainly not stupid enough to bet on us getting more than 50 points.

-- Anonymous, March 28, 2001

Did you ever bet on the Mac? I can't believe that we've somehow managed to get 9 points since this?? bloody hell, that's loads more than I thought!

We've still got to get another 3 to match the bookie's predictions though....

-- Anonymous, May 02, 2001

Interesting. I hadn't seen this thread till just now. Mac - on Boxing Day, before the Leeds game, our spread was 53.5-55.5. Being the pessismist you know and love, I sold at 53.5, reckoning we'd get nothing from the Leeds and Man U games for starters. Of course we then went on our best run of the season, and the spread went up to,I don't know, something like 56-58. Having sold at £20 a point this was putting me in potential mini-shit. However, sticking to my guns and knowing we were still shit (you may recall Dan's Cold Water Thread) I kept the bet open and sure enough about three weeks ago we were 48- 49. I wanted to close the bet but decided to wait till after the Sunlin game (insurance) and eventually took out a 3.5 point win. How have you got on?

-- Anonymous, May 02, 2001

I never did, it's better to just tip these :0)

I've got a free bet (£250) that I have to take before the end of the season. It's a supremacy bet on either a live Premiership game, or the Cup final. Any suggestions ? I feel the best I can hope for is for Ipswich to stuff Man City, or will it be the other way round and Man City rise to the occasion and win unexpectedly ?

-- Anonymous, May 03, 2001

Man City are gonna win...

I didn't understand a thing that Dan said there :))

-- Anonymous, May 03, 2001

What didn't you understand, Gav? I'd've thought you'd be good with figures...


-- Anonymous, May 03, 2001

Seriously, if you want a Spread Bets explanation, I'm happy to oblige..? :@)

-- Anonymous, May 03, 2001

Oblige Dan, oblige. I'm completely bamboozled. I once won a tenner on Andy Cole scoring first against Leeds and was so chuffed I've never bet since.

-- Anonymous, May 03, 2001