CRISIS 2001: Yourdon was right - 10 year depression now starting

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NASDAQ down from 5100 to 1800 level. Energy drying up. Environmental catastrophes lining up. Yourdon was right.

-- Vinny deCation (yourdon@yourdon.com), March 16, 2001

Answers

Yourdon was and still is a fucking idiot.

-- Manny (No@dip.com), March 16, 2001.

Hey:

I am new here. Who is Yourdan. *<)))

How about a bio?

Cheers,,,,

Z

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), March 16, 2001.


"This opens the door on another chapter of history." -- Walter Cronkite

-- Debbie (dbspence@usa.net), March 16, 2001.

Yourdone wasn't right, he said it would be caused by Y2K.

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day, that doesn't mean the clock runs right.

-- Cherri (jessam5@home.com), March 16, 2001.


I remember a lost of posts warning of a Market crash, especially bubble.com. True, the Y2k threat was a big deal. But a lot of GI's were also looking at irresponsible investing behavior when everyone else was surfing high on the bubble. Let's give credit where it is due.

-- John Littman (LITTMANNJOHNTL@AOL.COM), March 16, 2001.


But a lot of GI's were also looking at irresponsible investing behavior when everyone else was surfing high on the bubble.

I don't think so. I was saying that people were being stupid for investing in high tech start-ups, but I don't remember anyone in the Y2K doomer area that used that reasoning for a market dump. I will apologize if I am wrong. Show me anywhere on the old TB2K were a GI or Ed Yourdon done used used that reason instead of the Y2K "crash" for the market going down like it is.

I have no problem giving credit where it is due, if, indeed it is due.

-- Cherri (jessam5@home.com), March 16, 2001.


Cherri, I see you haven't changed during my absence. Still the same ol commie cunt.

-- Manny (No@dip.com), March 16, 2001.

Well, the economy was supposed to tank because of our inability to overcome a year's worth of computer-glitch-inspired disruption. We didn't get ANY such disruptions. Then it was supposed to take us a decade to recover from what didn't happen the first year. So that's already moot. By now, we were supposed to be in a depression so deep it would take 10 years to get out. Oops, missed that one too.

If Yourdon had predicted a market correction during a period of reduced growth, despite perfectly functioning computers, he wouldn't have been alone, but he'd have been accurate. As it is, he was simply selling his soul. I hope he got a good price for it.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), March 16, 2001.


"Well, the economy was supposed to tank because of our inability to overcome a year's worth of computer-glitch-inspired disruption."

I also said the economy would tank because of the enormous expenditures required to prevent such disruptions, and the alteration in the normal business cycle which occurred in anticipation of possible disaster.

Many companies borrowed way too much money to prepare, more than they could afford. In addition to spending way too much on fixing their systems, they also spent way too much gearing up production to build their inventories in case of failures. This gave the illusion of a tremendous economic boom from 1999 through first quarter 2000. Then the bills showed up, and these businesses realized all their excessive inventory wasn't flying out the door as they had hoped. Over the last several quarters, businesses have gradually come to grips with what they did, and finally began to announce profit warnings. The weaker businesses had no choice but to face reality last year, whereas the stronger businesses had hoped they could overcome it. We've begun to see this year that even strong businesses could not overcome it so easily. Y2K caused a fairly drastic alteration in the normal flow of business activity. It started as a ripple, but is now building into a tidal wave which will devastate our economic cycle well into the future. I would say that 10 years is still a realistic estimate before things get back to normal.

-- Ed Yourdon (TB2K@yourdon.com), March 17, 2001.


Cool.

My puts are money.

-- J (Y2J@home.comm), March 17, 2001.


Numbers I've seen spent by biz & gov in prepping for y2k ran from 600 to 900B worldwide. No economist here, but that seems a pretty pitiful amount to have triggered a recession/depression that would take ten years to climb out of.

-- Carlos (riffraff@cybertime.net), March 17, 2001.

Sorry Carlos, way off. The actual amount spent worldwide was closer to $3 Trillion. Of course most of that was American companies.

-- Ed Yourdon (TB2K@yourdon.com), March 17, 2001.

Part of the economic crisis is due to the spread of Mad Cow / hoof and mouth disease in Europe. Of course, those were caused by Y2K also. Goddamn non-compliant cows.

-- (moo@moo.moooo), March 17, 2001.

Ed, of that $3 Trillion how much do estimate was, in retrospect, spent unnecessarily?

-- Carlos (riffraff@cybertime.net), March 17, 2001.

In retrospect, if they had waited to fix upon failure, any problems might have been resolved for less than $1 Billion worldwide. But there was the possibilty that $billions of business activity could have been lost if that approach had been chosen. Guess they figured it's better to be safe than sorry. Oh well, live and learn.

-- Ed Yourdon (TB2K@yourdon.com), March 17, 2001.


Regarding the bad times which are probably ahead:

We have enormous Japanese banks in huge trouble because of their awful lending.

We have in the U.S. an awakening from the (not merely irrational) insane exuberance in the Internet/telecommunications sector.

We have an end to the blab, repeated over and over in history during booms, that this time new technology has changed the economic rules.

And I could go on. My point is that Y2K caused none of these things. It's just stupid humans screwing up again, just like they did in 1929. Humans never seem to learn anything.

-- Peter Errington (petere@ricochet.net), March 17, 2001.


That's the rub Ed. The "fear" became selffulfilling and in that my friend you played a role. I for one think you acted honestly but the result as you best describe above we'll all live with. Funny how shit turns out.

-- Carlos (riffraff@cybertime.net), March 17, 2001.

Many companies borrowed way too much money to prepare, more than they could afford. In addition to spending way too much on fixing their systems, they also spent way too much gearing up production to build their inventories in case of failures. This gave the illusion of a tremendous economic boom from 1999 through first quarter 2000.

Bull Shit. The money they spent was did not break them, they did not overstock and end up with too much inventory and cause a false economic boom.

People thought they were going to get rich quick and bought into the idea that every new tech offering would be the one that would skyrocket like microsoft and make them rich.
After too many of them failed to turn a profit, the experienced, knowledgeable stockbrokers pulled out and left the "instant millionaires" sitting there holding the worthless stock. It was nothing more then a lot of people and their greed thinking they would get something for nothing and paying the usual price for it.

It had nothing to do with Y2K, neither from breakdowns bringing a market fall or from having spent too much money remediting Y2K problems. Y2K did not have the ability to influence the market.

Ed, it is amazing how you can manipulate and twist things around to fit your need to have Y2K be a factor in the market or anything else that has happened because of the rollover.

Get over it, Y2K just was not as important to the rest of the world as it was to you. It's kinda sad watching you struggle so hard to find something to validate your obsession with Y2K.

-- Cherri (jessam5@home.com), March 17, 2001.


not Ed, nowhere close, silly imposter

-- gull nibble (not ed@sucker.con), March 17, 2001.

No, not even a very good imposter. The current estimates for y2k fixes of all kinds, *including* PR to convince the public and customers there was no problem, and *including* upgrades to new hardware and software just in case, worldwide, is no estimated at about $200 billion, of about 20% of American corporate IT budgets for one year. In perspect, this is a drop in the bucket.

In some sectors, the buying ahead did cause a bit of an unusual buying spike followed by a bit of a lull. But even this is nearly noise lost in the economic fortunes of the past year, none of which were y2k related at all.

In hindsight, the y2k problem was a matter of ordinary code maintenance, treated that way (except for the PR), and handled in stride. The worries (yes, I had some as well) were the result of active imaginations combined with insufficient data.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), March 17, 2001.


"Ed" emails Alan Greenspan immediately. This is news to the Federal Reserve, and Greenspan frantically dials the phone. The president and his cabinet are awakened. Armed with this new insight into the actual cause of the worldwide economic slowdown, the Executive branch and the Federal Reserve formulate a tailored strategy and will it to action.

Over the next several quarters, the U.S. markets recover, then the Asian markets. 401K's begin to swell again. The major automakers start designing SUV's the size of garbage trucks. Sammy Sosa hits 75 home runs before the all-star break.

The world is so greatful to "Ed" that they appoint him Pope, U.S. President, U.N. Secretary General, and Commissioner of Baseball. He appears on the cover of Teen Beat.

All the scattered Yourdonite refugees flock back to the Greenspun forum, vindictive, strengthened. Milne reappears, like Sauron in the third age of Middle Earth. Flint, Decker, Cherri, and Poole are cast into the fire pit of obscurity and ridicule. A new Golden age dawns.

-- Bemused (and_amazed@you.people), March 17, 2001.


The obscurity and ridicule are just normal everyday experience. But the fire part, that's bad news.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), March 17, 2001.

Flint, Decker, Cherri, and Poole are cast into the fire pit of obscurity and ridicule.

Damn, I always miss out on the fun, no matter which side I take I just don't seem to get cast into anything.

Poop.

-- Uncle Deedah (unkeed@yahoo.com), March 17, 2001.


y2k or no, it really doesn't matter.. this economic upset is not going to be fixed in oh two or three hours... :)

-- Will (righthere@home.now), March 17, 2001.

Bemused, it isn't the first itime I have been burned at the stake *grin*. It happened about 3 1/2 years ago elsewhere on the web.

Burn, Baby, Burn.

****A small town nestled within the hills of a lush green landscape, peppered with the majesty of the rose and the scent of the lavender bush. The wind is fresh and sweet, the soil always rich and moist, the trees always lush and full of delicious fruits. But as fresh as the wind is, it is always cold. The soil holds onto more secrets buried within it's depths than from the depths of a single human soul, rotting secrets that once walked as the vessel of one such soul. The trees have killed children who topple from the branches and snagged travelers, pulling them from their horses so they fall and break their bones upon the ground. The fruit is so good as to become the home for all variety of wriggling thing and growing insect known to man. And the sweetest fruits poison most who taste them.

Today in town a pyre has been erected and the good townsfolk have gathered about it carrying the pitchfork and burning torch, useful tools when applied in the field and the dark. In the middle of the pyre a woman is bound to an upright pole, and she watches as her fellow men cover the wood at her feet with oil from their lanterns and paper from their studies, useful tools when applied in the home. The crowd screams for the destruction of evil from their midst, and hug their children close to watch them burn the evil one.
Her ghost will haunt their sleep once the flesh has melted and peeled from her. How evil she is! More wood! More oil!

The crowd rants and raves, spills the darkness inside upon her and all others like her. They spit at her. Her friends wave their fists at her. Many don't know exactly what's going on and simply do the same. She is evil, they have been told, let her burn!

Venkman is one of those who is silent and glum, however, and there are others. Few, for some just decided to follow the crowd anyway, takes away the confusion and the silence. Makes them feel good. Venkman walks to the front of the crowd with his hands linked behind his back, his long coat blowing in the sweet, chilly breeze, the sun reflecting of his sunglasses. He looks out of place amongst the others dressed in the clothes of old, but they don't seem to notice him or his strange clothes.

"So it's come to this then, *sigh*..." he addresses the woman bound before him as the crowd screams for her skin to blister and her bones to blacken and split,
"...it's unfortunate, bound to happen I suppose, but all the same unfortunate". A man drops a bundle of wood onto the pyre right at Venkman's feet and then runs off through the crowd to get more.

"So, woman, shall ye be reborn? Shall a phoenix arise from the ashes or will you perish forever?
You can't rock the boat it seems *sigh*, for those traveling on the river styx don't like being splashed with those dark waters, for it stains their white robes. They want to arrive at Hades in the purest of white, clean, untouched. Maybe the robes help them to forget how gray it is there". The sky begins to grow darker as the horizon bleeds and black, swollen clouds start to swallow the sky.

"It won't rain on their party..", Venkman says, looking at the sky "...it can't. They simply won't allow it *he sneers*....perhaps you made it rain to often?! Hmmm?" The torchbearers are bought forward.

"Suppose I should get used to this shouldn't I...." looks around at the wood as it glistens with oil, which looks like blood in the sunset, "...only a matter of time before I'm here again...perhaps where you are now". Venkman looks the woman straight in the eyes and removes his glasses, his eyes are sorrowful. "This needs to be done....for them...after all, practicing as you did....it was quite a pagan thing, close to nature as it was though". Venkman gestures for the torchbearers to stop with a wave of his hand and finally the angry crowd stops there taunts and insults, their spitting and crying, their calls of "witch" and "devil" to watch as he climbs the pyre and kisses the woman on the lips.

"Seeya Cherri....." he whispers in her ear. And then climbs down and walks away as the torches are thrown. As he walks off he looks at the ground, his shoulders are hunched, his step slow. He passes one, pauses, sizes him up and ever so briefly looking the stranger in the eyes questioningly before continuing on into the bloody horizon, a happy crowd with faces dancing in the glow of the fire behind him.



-- Cherri (jessam5@home.com), March 18, 2001.


Damn I hate it when I don't close my tags!!!

-- Cherri (jessam5@home.com), March 18, 2001.


For what offense did you burn at the stake, Cheri?

-- Bemused (and_amazed@you.people), March 19, 2001.

She exaggerates because she has a persecution complex. She only has wear an "A" on her front and back.

-- (Setting@the.record straight), March 19, 2001.

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