OTECON] Dot - to - dot - to - dot - to - dot Posted By: Chuck a Night Driver (Administrator) Posted At: 3/15/01 5:37:53 am From IP: Reply Dot to dot dot to dot vatch de vatch vatch de vatch ...

Was a long slow night tonight (got home an hour ago, 0500 est) and I got to connecting some dots. NOT sure I like the picture. (rephrase: I DO NOT like the pic that emerged).

Currently there are untold MILLIONS of people (insert Carl Sagan.wave "Millions and millions...") who are of the opinion that they don't have to worry about Wall Streeet and Stocks because they don't own any. I am afraid they are going to learn the error of their ways in the relatively near future. They each have at least ONE BANK and boy howdy do the BANKS have stocks...

DOT: MOST BIG BANKS IN THE US ARE AWASH IN WHAT are referred to as "derivatives". These are highly convoluted, carefully structured transactions which may use as many as 5 currencies, 7 banks or other entities, forward positions, puts, calls, etc. and be truly Byzantine in their structure. (numbers for illustration purposes)

DOT: THE YEN has lost at LEAST 20% of its value in the last couple weeks. a 120 Y:1$ ratio is NOT good from arbitrageurs point of view. The above derivatives are an arbitrageur's HEAVEN. (See below)

DOT: YEN CARRY TRADE has GOT to have a LOT of people sweating over this current Yen-$ and Yen-Euro valuation.

DOT: US banks are SERIOUSLY in bed with Japanese Banks, through their derivative positions, as well as directly in $denominated investments. ONE side of this relationship is VERY SHAKEY (Guess which???)

DOT: there are at least 3 japanese banks which could SINK the Treasury (purchaser of Last Resort for US Treasuries) if they repatriated their $ denominated paper

DOT: Japanese Banks have been playing in the US Stock MArket and are NOW reaping some of what they might have sewn, in that their ASSETS ($denominated STOCKS) have lost INCREDIBLE value (from 30 to 60% and more). In order to stay afloat they need MORE assets...

DOT: The Japanese Gov seems (from a post hereabouts plus or minus a thread here) to be of several minds on how to work this out but SOME are willing to run the printing presses. (Which would LOGICALLY cause a further devaluation of the Yen, but when you are throwing TRILLIONS of ANYTHING around LOGIC seems to be the first thing to escape out the window.)

DOT: COMMUNICATIONS is INSTANTANEOUS nowadays, so there won't be the reaction contemplation time there was in 1929. LOTS more people will be able to react in REAL TIME instead of Newspaper time.

DOT: the CURRENT MIND SET in a MAJORITY of the folks out in YUPPIE HEAVEN (Houses with Great Rooms and 5 car garages) is IMMEDIATE GRATIFICATION OR BUST (OR If you can't get it to me NOW I'm gonna just kill myself, or words to that effect.) which is WAY different from the attitude in the 20's and 30's (Use it up, make do, make IT do, do without).

DOT: NOBODY UNDER 40 knows what a REAL HARDSHIP looks like. Nobody under 40 knows that the market CAN GO DOWN FOR A LONG TIME. And may take DECADES to go up again.

.... .... ..... ..... .... ....

All of these DOTS draw a REAL NIGHTMARE. the scenario I saw this evening was one where the decline in NY, causes Banks in Japan to crash, taking out US banks due to derivatives. Large companies fall due to the thrashing of the large banks trying to support themselves by calling paper that may be "underperforming" (a polite way to hide corporate bankruptcies).

All of which happens so fast as to make peope's heads spin.

Suddenly you have no place to go to work.

And yadda yadda yadda ad disasterium.

THIS is a recipe for unrest and a REAL need for the HAven Lessons. Y'all MIGHT want to review the [Farm]Safe Haven thread(s), the Exercise in Preparedness thread(s), and the Lessons Learned thread.

Chuck

-- Finder (finder@found.it), March 15, 2001

Answers

SAY WHAT?!?!

A doomer that didn't mention at least *ONE* "dot" as relating to y2k????

The stinkbum crowd needs to revoke *ucks tinfoil memebership.

-- (doomers@re.losers), March 15, 2001.

That dip-shit wants the world to re-enter the dark ages. When is he going to GI?

-- TEOTWAWKI (disasters-R-Us@anything.will do), March 15, 2001.

Chuck the fright driver is a big fat joke. He gets off on the power trip he gets by conjuring up fear among the doomzies. The ironic thing is that he really believes he is smart, when in reality he is just a fucking delusional imbecile.

-- (fuck chuck @ what. a joke), March 15, 2001.

I'm no Chuck fan, but you can't argue with his facts. In fact, he left out the two biggest:

- the unfolding "gold carry trade" fiasco

- the now very apparent end of cheap fossil fuel.

-- (@ .), March 15, 2001.

DOT: NOBODY UNDER 40 knows what a REAL HARDSHIP looks like. Nobody under 40 knows that the market CAN GO DOWN FOR A LONG TIME. And may take DECADES to go up again.

.... .... ..... ..... .... ....

Chuck knows real hardship? He must be talking about looking in the mirror every morning.

-- Up Chuck and die (anti fright driver@Chuck give it up.already), March 15, 2001.

To "@" ...... Chuck is not the brightest bulb on the string, but when you consider that the string he's on is about 3/4s burnt out, he's one of the ones lighting up the bunker. Chuck's main problem is one of perspective. He can see significant pieces of the puzzle, but he lacks the education and experience to see the finished puzzle itself. You, "@", have pointed out two significant aspects that he missed. You'll find additional gaps in his "survival" writings.

May we move on now, Finder? I hang at this board rather than TB to avoid the often painful rantings of Mr. Driver and the Entity Called Zog. I clicked on this thread for old times' sake. This blast from the past wasn't pleasant. I won't repeat it.

-- (MrTimeh@s.come.foryou), March 15, 2001.

If you don't like what you read stay the fuck off the thread asshole. Hi folks I'm back. Miss Me?

-- Manny (No@dip.com), March 16, 2001.

"NOBODY UNDER 40 knows what a REAL HARDSHIP looks like."

Chuck's idea of real hardship is having a couple of cops beat him to the donut shop and buy the last dozen of fresh jelly donuts.

-- (chuckie@fat.dumb.piggie), March 16, 2001.

Chuck never met a donut shop he didn't like. If the fucking idiot is so smart why does he drive an ambulance for a living? Could it be he is over qualified for anyother fucking posistion?

-- Manny (No@dip.com), March 16, 2001.

Manny I dont know if he is qualified for any other field, but I know you are now dis-qualified for your spelling.

moron.

-- big mouth frog (dip@this.moron), March 18, 2001.