Canada faces cyber-threat

DND warns Forces must develop ability to counter new forms of attack Electronic warfare more likely than conventional battle, strategy paper says

Jim Bronskill The Ottawa Citizen

The Canadian military should take on new roles that include the ability to launch cyber-attacks and better defend overseas troops against terrorist strikes, says an internal Defence Department strategy paper.

The newly obtained report says the enhancements are needed to prepare the Armed Forces for episodes such as the release of biological weapons, a crippling attack on Canada's power grid or a psychological campaign aimed at swaying public opinion.

Canada is more likely to face these scenarios -- known to analysts as "asymmetric threats" -- than a major conventional war in the foreseeable future, warns the paper.

"The future is uncertain, but international instability, fractured states, weapons proliferation and asymmetric threats will make the world a volatile and unpredictable place."

A draft version of the paper, dated last July, was obtained by the Citizen under the Access to Information Act.

An asymmetric threat is one that circumvents or undermines an opponent's strengths while exploiting his weaknesses -- often employing a very small effort that yields dramatic results.

A classic example occurred in 1983 in Mogadishu when the Somali militia shot down a U.S. helicopter and ambushed the rescue forces, killing 18 American soldiers.

"The Somalis realized that the U.S. centre of gravity was the unwillingness of its politicians to accept casualties in a humanitarian operation," notes the paper. "This action resulted in the U.S. and the United Nations withdrawing from Somalia."

It says similar types of actions against Western forces might include:

- Information operations, or computer network attacks and electronic warfare, against military command posts, as well as psychological operations, or PSYOPS, to disorient leaders.

- Attacks on space assets needed for surveillance, communications and navigation.

- Use of chemical, biological or even nuclear weapons against key structures such as ports, or the dispersal of narcotics as a weapon of war to incapacitate Western soldiers.

- Conflict in novel terrain, such as urban, mountain or jungle settings.

- Technology such as ballistic missiles, miniature submarines, unmanned aerial vehicles or robotics and machine soldiers.

- Terrorism, including hostage taking and assassination of commanders.

The paper, relying on intelligence estimates, says there is a high probability of an information operations assault against Canada, either domestically or on deployed forces. "An attack on Canada's information infrastructure would be very damaging and inadequate measures have been taken to protect ourselves."

There is a "medium likelihood" of an event involving weapons of mass destruction. "Our civilian population and our deployed forces are relatively undefended against biological attack, which could have wide-ranging effects."

The strategy paper recommends the Canadian Forces adopt new roles including the ability to mount offensive computer operations, improve defences against nuclear, chemical or biological attacks against troops, and guard against terrorism directed at military installations.

It also proposes enhancing existing roles, such as strategic intelligence gathering, defence of computer networks and support to other departments in defence of an attack involving weapons of mass destruction.

Defence officials were not immediately available to comment on the proposals.

The paper says asymmetric threats are emerging, have significant potential to affect Canadian security and "may move into the foreground in the next 5-10 years."

It is anticipated that the ability to handle information will become increasingly important to military operations, underscoring the need for methods and policies to deal with information attacks, adds the paper.

One possibility is the creation of small, specialized teams to quickly counter the new threats.

The strategy paper says in the long term, foreign states may launch computer warfare or ballistic missile attacks against North America. "In the shorter term, the line between terrorism and traditional conflict will become increasingly blurred."

For instance, disputes over land claims, the drug trade and human smuggling, which are currently considered law enforcement problems, could become military conflicts because of the "sophistication and power" of some of the actors involved.

"These new threats target not the Armed Forces, but the nation itself."

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/national/010311/5079388.html

-- Martin Thompson (mthom1927@aol.com), March 11, 2001