'It's the worst of the worst': Power shortage looms with no relief in sight

by Lynda V. Mapes Seattle Times staff reporter MIKE SIEGEL / THE SEATTLE TIMES

As winter eases into spring and the usually drippy Northwest continues to bask in the sun, forecasters are starting to plan for the driest water year ever in the region.

"It's the worst of the worst," Mike Hansen, spokesman for Bonneville Power Administration, said yesterday.

In a critical water year, power planners assume at least 60 million acre feet of water will flow past The Dalles dam between Jan. 1 and July 31. In 1977, the region's record low-water year, 53.8 million acre feet of water flowed past the dam.

This year, the top volume forecast so far is only 58 million acre feet, and that's assuming normal rainfall after mid-March.

The region's usually wettest months are gone. And snowpack, at a measly 55 percent of normal, won't be getting a boost this week. Forecasters are calling for sunshine at least through Saturday, with near-record high temperatures today and a record-shattering 64 degrees predicted for tomorrow afternoon.

Low water means a low fuel tank for the region's hydropower system.

If current weather conditions continue between now and August, the region will be 4,000 megawatts short of average generating capacity, a nearly one-third reduction, according to the Northwest Power Planning Council.

The council this week will discuss management of the hydropower system in a shortage that could affect not only power users but recreation on reservoirs; threatened and endangered salmon in the rivers, and farmers who depend on affordable power and adequate water supplies for irrigation.

Gov. Gary Locke is expected to convene a news conference today to reiterate a call to conserve electricity and water. Locke also will toast four utilities that have created 1,500 megawatts of new power generation, more than enough to light Seattle at any given time.

The sources include a new gas-fired power plant in Chehalis; installation of more efficient turbines on Columbia River hydropower facilities; and longer than normal hours of operation at a Spokane gas-fired plant.

Locke also is expected to announce successful negotiations with the federal Environmental Protection Agency to allow Avista power plant in Spokane and a BP refinery in Skagit County to fire up gas generators without the usual environmental review.

The expedited permits are being granted in return for cash payments from both companies for low-income energy assistance and commitments to offset increased pollution down the road.

A Northwest power shortage has implications across the West Coast. California relies on Washington for 11 percent of its power during the course of the year, with most of it imported in the summer months. But this year the Northwest probably won't have it to give.

Washington dam operators already have faced white-knuckle days managing flows so low they must continually triage the competing needs of fish, power and recreation.

On Riffe Lake near Morton, Lewis County, frequented by more than 100,000 boaters at lakeside campsites every summer, the lowest boat ramp is more than 80 feet in the air.

Instead of policing the lake for errant boaters, Tacoma Power officials are watching for rowdies four-wheeling through the muddy lake bottom or scavenging for Native American artifacts.

Some would-be boaters already have sent in deposits for the coming season. The utility has had few cancellations so far despite the possibility people could be camping on the shores of a large mudflat.

Managers for Tacoma Power also have had to eke out enough water to keep 475 salmon redds, or nests, covered in the Cowlitz River. Meanwhile they must also store enough water to help migrating juvenile salmon later in the year, and keep water in side channels where the young salmon rear, said Debbie Young, natural-resources manager for Tacoma Power.

Reservoir levels in Riffe Lake are 125 feet from full and water managers have no idea how fast the reservoir will refill. "That's the problem with hydropower," Young said. "You can't exactly call up and request a fuel delivery."

On the Lewis River, dam managers for PacifiCorp already are struggling with the driest year on record. The water year beginning in October usually brings 81 inches of rain to that area but so far only 34 inches have fallen since November.

That's a problem for Terry Flores, entrusted with managing flows for PacifiCorp on the Lewis River, which produces more than 80 percent of the wild fall chinook in the Lower Columbia, a federally protected threatened species.

When flows are this low, calling a single weather event right or wrong can effect the survival of the fish for the entire season.

For Flores, it was a rainstorm on Nov. 15.

He knew a big rain was predicted that day and he faced a choice: Generate power with the increased flow, or bank it for later and force the fish to spawn in lower areas in the riverbed that would be easier to keep wet.

It meant guessing what kind of weather would be coming later in the year. Playing it safe or counting on more rain.

Flores said he played it safe, adding that not a single chinook redd has dried out so far this winter.

"We really would much rather be running turbines and generating power," Flores said. "But we have to bite the bullet."

On the Skagit River, threatened chinook salmon have faced the best and worst of fates.

Puget Sound Energy had to turn off its generating plants when the reservoirs behind its dams ran dry last week. The reduced flow into the Baker River will desiccate salmon nests on the middle reach of the Skagit.

Seattle City Light said it was able to keep all of the salmon nests in the Upper Skagit safe.

Puget Sound managers operate under a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission license that dates back to 1956 and requires no minimum flows for fish.

City Light, with a 1995 license, sets its minimum flow wherever it must to keep salmon nests wet. So far the utility says it has protected all of the 4,000-plus chinook salmon nests in the Upper Skagit.

Dam mangers for City Light, with 20-mile-long Ross Lake, also have much greater water-storage capacity than Puget.

City Light managers are sweating the lake's blue-ribbon trout fishery. It's unknown whether lake levels will be high enough come June for trout to reach all of their spawning streams.

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"There are consequences for every action we take," said Dave Pflug, biologist for City Light.

-- Martin Thompson (mthom1927@aol.com), March 06, 2001