1/30/01 12:53:19 PM PT)

WASHINGTON -- A lack of new power plant development, drought-diminished hydropower supplies, and constrained natural gas and electric transmission capacity will cause California's power problems to reverberate throughout the U.S. West at least through 2003, a study released Tuesday concludes.

'A lack of infrastructure investments in both power plants and electricity and natural gas transmission capabilities that is unique to California is at the root of the blackouts that have occurred,' said Robert Sansom, president of Arlington, Va.-based Energy Ventures Analysis Inc.

'The fact that most of the blackouts have occurred to date only in Northern California is clear evidence not only of deficient capacity, but also a lack of infrastructure to get the power to where it is needed,' Sansom said.

Sansom is one of three co-authors of the consulting firm's report, 'The California Energy Crisis: A Multi-Year Electricity and Natural Gas Problem for Western States.'

The report contrasts California's 6,200 megawatts of new power generation capacity under development with the nearly 30,000 megawatts in Texas; 23,000 megawatts in Illinois; and 11,200 in New England of new generation either in place or under development.

The study warns the 6,200 megawatts expected to come on line by 2003 won't be enough to meet California's needs, given surging demand from rapid economic growth in the state and surrounding region.

Further, the report says that the region's electric-supply problems have been worsened by light precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, which has lessened hydropower output.

But the report says that 'the worst may be just on the horizon' as hydropower output in 2000 was higher than the levels recorded during the drought years 1990-1994, while 2001 snow pack is below average.

(This story was originally published by Dow Jones Newswires)

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