What are your views on Y2K, from 2001?

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I'm being interviewed tomorrow on my views of Y2K, from the perspective of 1/31/2001. I welcome reading your thoughts on this, too, and sharing them as time allows in the interview. Thanks

-- Jan Nickerson (JaNickrson@aol.com), January 30, 2001


On the brink

Do you mean Y2K as in Year 2000 or do you
mean Y2K as in Y2K computer bug? Well after
the last roll over the software problems should
be just the ones that have already started.
January 01, 2001 brought in about a dozen leap
year glitches and the crash of Nordbanken computers.
There are still many business', local governments
and state governments that have yet to recover.
There was a drop in refinery capacity and crude
oil stocks at the Y2K rollover and it has not
recovered. The effect on the economy and energy
infrastructure is evident today and will increase
into the coming years. Record oil and gas
expolosions cost
, airport infrastructure failures,
record bankruptcies and a regional power chaos
has put us "on the brink."

-- spider (spider0@usa.net), January 30, 2001.


You may find the postings at the following two URLs useful.

http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=004Vzv http://pub5.ezboard.com/fyourdontimebomb2000.showMessage? topicID=21122.topic The former includes postings about what is going on now.

The latter includes many interesting points of view concerning where we are on the Y2K impact scale.


-- Paula Gordon (pgordon@erols.com), January 30, 2001.


I find the data on the near doubling of oil and gas pipeline explosion costs in the year 2000 particularly significant. Thanks so much for the link. I had not seen this before. I hope you will crosspost this information on the EZ Board thread noted above (the one about where we are not with respect to the Y2K impact scale).


-- Paula Gordon (pgordon@erols.com), January 30, 2001.

That should be "where we are now with respect to the Y2K impact scale."

-- Paula Gordon (pgordon@erols.com), January 30, 2001.

It is cascading. Nat as dramatically as some expected but it is cascading. The cascading effect is geometric, not liear. It's not over yet and it's not even being fixed anymore.

Major problems this summer, very bad by next winter. It could, over the next few years, become every bit as bad some feared, just much slower developing.

-- Tom Flook (tflook@earthlink.net), January 30, 2001.

I submit, I am not in the same league as some folks, but I see it from the Ground-Up. More and more cars with "For Sale" signs, along the road, counted twenty on a five mile, two road stretch. This is not normal. Count your blessings, and give monetary and inspirational help, when you can.

-- My Story (andIam@sticking.com), January 30, 2001.

Personally I think there has been a vast Conspiricy by many in Government & Corporations as well to HIDE the TRUE amount of problems. Certainly since things are collapsing as fast as they are something must be seriously wrong. I can't imagine that people so ready to purchase & an economy so robust can just come to a screeching halt so quickly. But when Energy becomes scarse because of explosions, & Refineries going down. It begins to make some sence. I'm going Solar as fast as I can. it may not cure all the problem but will make a large dent in the energy I consume. & also give me the oppertunity to run many things when the light are out for the rest of the neighborhood.

-- Gene Snyder (headturbo@hotmail.com), January 30, 2001.

Paula, Thanks for referring me to the two other dialogues on this - invaluable and timely! And fascinating.

-- Jan Nickerson (JaNickrson@aol.com), January 30, 2001.


An additional dialogue that you might find of interest just began at http://pub5.ezboard.com/fyourdontimebomb2000.showMessage? topicID=22022.topic

Best wishes with your interview.


-- Paula Gordon (pgordon@erols.com), January 31, 2001.

The U.S. Navy War College has posted a serious Y2K scenario study report, still posted at: http://www.nwc.navy.mil/dsd/y2ksited/y2ksite.htm Four general scenarios are described: Tornadoes, Flood, Hurricaines, and Ice Storm. The outcome conforms best to the "Flood" model. But, the unfolding speed is MUCH slower than predicted, and the worst of the crisis, the "crest", is still in the future, even at T plus 400 days. The "Flood" scenario is described at Navy War College sublink: http://www.nwc.navy.mil/dsd/y2ksited/y2krep3.html There were three primary Y2K Bug failure dates, and it was the last "wave", not even discussed in 1999, that "broke the camel's back": 12/31/00. This is a variant of the Leap Year Date Bug. Some embedded systems got through 02/29/00, as it's just Day 60 of Year 00; but stumbled on Day 366 of year 00.

-- Robert Riggs (rxr.999@worldnet.att.net), January 31, 2001.

Robert, this is great info. Refreshing to read the Naval Report from this side of 1/1/00. And sobering to reflect on "flood's" key question, "what are the low lying areas" [that may yet occur]. Thanks for passing this along

-- Jan Nickerson (JaNickrson@aol.com), January 31, 2001.

Re my message in my interview, I've been thinking about this for 24 hours, hard. And it's coming down to this synthesis:

We all have beliefs. And it's human nature for resist (and resent) what threatens our beliefs. As a result, we unconsciously put blinders on. Folks not "getting" the impact Y2K could have (had) have blinders on, imo, interfering with their getting this. Ongoing Y2K impact aside, the even bigger question for me is: Where (else) does our culture have blinders on? Where do I have blinders on? What am I/we not seeing, that I/we need to be looking at?

That's the even bigger lesson/message for me, from Y2K.

-- Jan Nickerson (JaNickrson@aol.com), January 31, 2001.

Where (else) does our culture have blinders on? Where do I have blinders on? What am I/we not seeing, that I/we need to be looking at?

That's a big one. Let's start here.

-- spider (spider0@usa.net), February 01, 2001.

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