2004 Horse Race: And They're Off!
Wednesday, January 17, 2001 By David Koeppel
With George W. Bush about to assume control of the White House, the turmoil of election year 2000 will slowly begin to fade into history.
But as one campaign season ends, another immediately begins. Democrats are already gearing up for their shot at the 2004 presidential nomination.
Too early, you say? Not according to some political consultants, eager to handicap the next crop of presidential hopefuls.
Al Gore:
It might not be the equivalent of an Ali-Frazier rematch, but a rejuvenated Al Gore facing President Bush promises to be the most intriguing possibility of 2004. Some are clamoring for the return engagement, while others find the prospect less than tantalizing.
Some compare a Gore comeback to the return of Richard Nixon in 1968, after he lost a close presidential contest in 1960.
"He certainly has a shot. He needs to take a rest, and then find himself a good bully pulpit," said Democratic consultant Hank Sheinkopf.
"There are some Democrats that will see him as the answer," Sheinkopf added. "Others will see the failure in Florida as a failure of the campaign, not taking advantage of a prosperous economy and the Clinton legacy."
The thinking among some strategists is that Gore's time has passed.
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y.:
This would be another marquee matchup. Now that the cries of "carpetbagger" have subsided, all eyes will be focused on how Clinton conducts herself as New York's first-term senator.
She's rebuffed questions about a run in 2004, but undoubtedly the speculation will remain.
"We now have to assume that Hillary Clinton doesn't want to live anywhere near New York," said Republican consultant Rich Galen. "She's not a woman who likes to wait patiently."
Gov. Gray Davis, D-Calif.:
Davis' name keeps cropping up on the short list of potential presidential candidates. He is governor of the largest state in the country, a state which has a history of catapulting its governors into presidential races, but with decidedly mixed results.
Pundits say that Davis needs to build a strong national organization early and avoid the mistakes made by his predecessor Pete Wilson, whose 1996 presidential campaign barely got off the ground.
"I think he has to be considered a powerhouse in the party," said Democratic consultant Norman Adler. "The energy crisis is a high-profile issue which if he can cure, he'll look like a hero."
Galen believes the strongest indication of a Gray candidacy is the governor's recent Christmas cards sent to the Washington press corps.
Sen. Joseph Lieberman, D-Conn.:
As Al Gore's running mate, Joe Lieberman's name recognition skyrocketed — so much so that some are mentioning him as a potential candidate in 2004. But Galen views the Connecticut senator's prospects as bleak.
"I don't think anyone considers him a legitimate candidate, except maybe Joe Lieberman," he said. "The fact is he caved in on every single issue that was dear to him."
Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass. and former Sen. Bob Kerrey, D-Neb.:
Galen views both "Kerry twins" as viable candidates. He sees John Kerry as a traditional liberal who could generate some interest.
"He doesn't pretend to be a centrist," Galen said. "I think he's legitimate, smart, skilled, with a good appearance."
Adler disagrees. "John Kerry wants it. Unfortunately, I don't think he'll be able to persuade anyone else," he said.
Galen sees Bob Kerrey's move from Nebraska to New York City as a clever way to position himself at the center of the media world. But Adler thinks his move out of politics will jettison him to political oblivion.
Rep. Richard Gephardt, D-Mo.:
Skeptics wonder if Gephardt's time will ever come. He lost his 1988 bid to eventual nominee Michael Dukakis, and Sheinkopf says that congressional Republicans will hamstring the Missouri representative, at least until midterm elections in 2002.
Sens. Evan Bayh, D-Ind./Bob Graham, D-Fla./Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif.:
These three prominent Democrats have been mentioned as potential dark-horse candidates, but aren't yet considered genuine threats.
"Bayh is very popular in Indiana, but he'd be little more than an asterisk in any national poll," Galen said. "He's just not a top-tier candidate."
Galen suggests that California Sen. Dianne Feinstein has the potential to be an effective candidate, and that Bob Graham has the capabilities and the organization to be a first-tier challenger. Adler sees him as smart and telegenic, with the potential to emerge at the top of the pack.
Former Sen. Bill Bradley, D-N.J.:
Pundits agree that the former candidate who challenged and lost miserably to Al Gore in last year's primaries might run again in an effort to have a legitimate forum for his ideas. But no one gives him much chance of winning.
"I think we now know that Bill Bradley is not a good commodity," Adler said.
A Challenge to Bush?
None of the pundits can foresee a serious Republican challenge to Bush.
"I suspect the Republicans will all line up with Bush," Sheinkopf said.
Still, predicting what could happen in four years is an inexact science at best.
-- Uncle Bob (unclb0b@aol.com), January 17, 2001