10. The Internet has vastly increased the quantity of information available... but not the quality.

9. Caveat emptor.

8. Some Americans feel they understand how technology and the modern economy work... and most are wrong.

7. It's more fun to prepare for a disaster than to actually participate in one.

6. Think carefully before taking advice from a man who has buried 46 school buses for use as emergency shelters.

5. Self interest is the most reliable predictor of human behavior.

4. Nothing spices up a potential global crisis like a hard deadline.

3. Follow the money.

2. It's OK to buy cool gear without using the impending end of civilization as an excuse.

1. [Moose special effects provided by Svengaard Olafeson]

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@att.net), December 28, 2000

Answers

Lessons learned from Y2K.

http://channel.nytimes.com/2000/01/09/technology/09year.html

-- The (lessons@of.Y2K), December 28, 2000.

I really liked the "moose special effects". Who did his antlers? And wasn't there a "stunt-moose" for some of those scenes?

-- Patricia (PatriciaS@lasvegas.com), December 28, 2000.

I don't really get #3 "Follow the money" hmmm...

-- 999666333 (What@ever.huh), December 28, 2000.

I am sincerely disheartened that this one missed the top ten.

"Don't buy the cheapo TP!!!"

-- capnfun (capnfun1@excite.com), December 28, 2000.

During the Watergate investigation, an anonymous informant known as Deep Throat allegedly told reporters Woodward and Bernstein to "follow the money." At the time, this meant following a trail of illicit financial transactions back to the source.

In the context of Y2K, "follow the money" has a slightly different spin. One of my observations during 1999 was the lack of insider stock sell offs. Under the best of circumstances, it would have been difficult to conceal looming Y2K-related computer problems... particularly from people inside the company. A surge of insider selling would have sent up a red flag. Another possible use is the poor performance of Y2K remediation firms and the flat (or declining) salaries of legacy programmers, e.g. COBOL.

I'm sure there are a dozen or more other financial indicators that suggested Y2K would not be the catatrosphe some expected. "Follow the money" is simply saying look more at what people (and markets) are doing... not what they are saying.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@att.net), December 28, 2000.

Ken, Thanks!

:-)

-- 999666333 (what@ever.huh), December 28, 2000.

The markets were more nervous in the second half of 1999 than you realized, Ken--until the Fed came to the rescue.

http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001nPd

Fed's Y2K liquidity measures keep markets calm

New York Federal Reserve Bank President William McDonough affirmed on Wednesday that the Fed had ``gone a long way'' toward addressing year-end liquidity fears that peaked in August and September of this year.

Analysts, economists, market players and primary dealers -- the firms that conduct securities transactions with the New York Fed -- agreed.

``It's certainly been useful -- it's a valuable backstop to have there. The mere fact that the Fed has been so aggressive has been helpful,'' said Lou Crandall, chief economist at R.H. Wrightson & Associates.

Economists also say market interest in the Fed's new liquidity insurance scheme means investors are approaching the issue calmly rather than with panic.

Until the Fed came to the rescue, many investors said they were content to park money in safe, liquid short-term U.S. Treasuries and keep their money away from riskier assets such as stocks or debt from corporations and government-sponsored agencies. If that occurred, it might have led to a liquidity squeeze similar to what was seen last year at this time.

-- Old (m@rket.trends), December 28, 2000.

The talking heads in the financial world need something to talk about every day. This lapses into talking about "the markets" like a group of mental patients. "The markets were jittery and confused today." Bah!

At any point in time you can find nervous investors. Personally, last year I was nervous about the ludicrous valuations of "dot com" companies that hadn't a shown a penny of earnings.

With Y2K, I think the Federal Reserve overreacted. Given the hot economy and overvalued equities markets, I think increased liquidity was a bad idea. Greenspan knew this, but was caught between a rock and a hard place. Greenspan wanted to make it through rollover smoothly and then push for a "soft landing." You'll note how interest rates climbed post rollover.

Without Y2K, the Fed would have touched the brakes in 1999... or so goes my guess.

As for "follow the money," my intent was to focus on specific economic indicators that might suggest a potential problem. If we saw massive insider sell offs in blue chip companies, I would have been curious. If Y2K remediation firm stocks were through the roof, I would have been intrigued. If I saw Alan Greenspan loading a yacht with cases of Ensure, I would have gone boat shopping. (chuckle)

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@att.net), December 28, 2000.