Archived story from 08/04/99 "Beyond the Hype: likely Y2K Impacts on the U.S. Electricity Service"

greenspun.com : LUSENET : Y2K discussion group : One Thread

Power engineer and Y2K analyst Dick Mills
makes the following predictions regarding the
availability in the United States of electrical
power in the year 2000:

  1. Prepare for blackouts in the first days of January
    2000, lasting up to 72 hours.
  2. Prepare for shortages of power in the warm summer
    months of 2000.

Mills predicts that carefully regulated power
shortages eventually affecting most U.S electricity
customers is much more likely in the year 2000 than
uncontrolled localized power blackouts.
The
odds of power shortages are particularly high during
the summer of 2000, especially if the summer is hot
in most areas of the United States. Power shortages
result when power generation "margins" dip below
0%. Margins of 15-30% are standard for the industry
in the United States, meaning that generation capacity
is usually 15-30% larger than demand.

-- Anonymous, December 22, 2000


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