Let's Get Serious About 2004

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THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR ONLINE, Dec 15, 2000

The Class of 2004

by Max Schulz

OK, so we finally know it's Bush. Time's-a-wasting. We've already squandered a valuable month, and we're way behind starting Campaign 2004.

It's fair to assume that George W. will be the Republican nominee. But how about on the Democratic side? It's wide open, and there are barely three years until Iowa and New Hampshire. So before any more time slips away, let's assess the relative prospects of those rumored to be mulling a race for the White House:

Al Gore -- In his own mind, he is the natural candidate in the 2004 election. A rematch makes perfect sense. At least it does to someone who has nothing else in the world to do. Gore has had a virtually unbroken run on the federal payroll since being elected to Congress in the mid-1970s. How would he fare in the private sector? Not well. His problem is that he is fundamentally unlikable. So who's going to ask him to teach at their university? Who's going to put him on their corporate board? This problem threatens his ability to put food on the table. And it threatens his 2004 chances. Democrats don't like Gore, and they're doubly angry at him for such a poor showing this time. How in the hell did he lose West Virginia? A sitting vice president has a huge advantage in grabbing the nomination, which explains how Gore got the nod this year. But come January 21, Gore will be just one of a number of presidential wannabes. His best bet would have been to use Wednesday night's concession speech to preempt his rivals and announce his intention to square off with Bush four years from now. But he blew that, and his chance is slim. He might think it'd be fun to get the old gang back together. He'll be surprised when he sees them fleeing like rats and joining on with other candidates. And attempts to circumvent the long campaign by going to court to have the nomination declared for him are likely to be met with failure.

Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT) -- Not exactly a guy who set the woods on fire on the campaign trail, is he? But Gore didn't lose because of Lieberman, so Joe the Moralist has to be considered among the top tier candidates for 2004. And even if Liebermania didn't exactly set in this fall, he still has name recognition and should be considered among the favorites on that basis alone. His problem? No natural constituency. There are precious few Jews in Iowa, and not too many in New Hampshire. After Gore plucked him, Lieberman sold out on every issue that might have given him trouble with the Democratic Party's liberal base -- school vouchers, tort reform, etc. -- but that just brings him to par with everyone else who will be running.

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) -- The mere suggestion of Hillary Clinton in the Oval Office sends conservatives into states of apoplexy. It's not Bill who conservatives find so objectionable as it is his wife. She scares them. And while the prospect of Hillary Clinton as president might have been dismissed a few years ago, she's a lot closer now that she has her Senate perch. So does she run or not? She pledged, promised, and vowed she'd serve her entire 6-year term, which would seem to preclude a 2004 run. Translation: Bet the farm she's running. Like Gore and Lieberman, she can plausibly claim to have been through a bruising presidential campaign -- two of them, in fact. What Hillary needs to realize is that she was a big liability to her husband in those races. Hillary might be able to win in New York. But the rest of the country has quite different sensibilities from New York's. Figure Hillary to be back in the Senate come January 2005.

Bill Clinton -- Sure, the 22nd Amendment would seem to guarantee us a Bill Clinton-free future. But if he can figure a way to get back in there, he will. Perhaps the crafty Ehud Barak can advise.

Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) -- Democrats always claim Republicans are the party of the rich. Rather than complain, John Kerry did something about it. Her married the filthy rich widow of Sen. John Heinz (R-PA) and now takes sponge baths with hundred dollar bills. Wouldn't it be something if Kerry launched a bid for the Democratic nomination with bags and bags of very old Republican money? He's tall, good-looking, articulate, and down-the-line on the issues. Plus he's a military man, something in short supply among Dems.

Sen. Bob Kerrey (D-NE) -- Outshines fellow solon Kerry when it comes to the military: Cornhusker Bob lost a leg to the Viet Cong. But trying to win the nomination from a party with a number of members who thought the Viet Cong were groovy might prove hazardous. Still, he's sensible and ethical, and if the Democrats are looking for a change, he could be their guy.

Gov. Gray Davis (D-CA) -- The aptly-named chief executive of the largest state in the Union has a lot of upside. He's bright, able, and trustworthy. Like Gore, he's boring, but not pompous. He's one of the few outside-the-Beltway types who could mount a serious run, but only if he can figure out how to turn the lights back on in the Golden State.

Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) -- The fresh-faced former trial lawyer nearly got the nod for veep from Gore. He was too young, but generated a lot of buzz. And he's only getting older. Unfortunately, the country may be quite tired of lawyers after the recent attempt to sue for the White House.

Former Sen. Bill Bradley (D-NJ) -- Stultifyingly dull and a terrible campaigner -- it worked for Mondale and Dukakis. Still, one gets the impression Bradley's best shot came against the ethically challenged Gore, princeling of the Clinton White House. One-on-one against a candidate no one was enthused about and maybe Bradley's got a chance. In a race with a few dynamic personalities, don't count on it.

Sen. Robert Torricelli (D-NJ) -- Among the most shameless congressional self-promoters in recent memory, The Torch has emerged inexplicably in recent weeks as one of the party's statesmen-in-training. New Jersey is a high-profile launching pad (if Bill Bradley were from North Dakota, would his campaign have had any traction?), so it could work. Plus, the fact he dated Bianca Jagger might elevate his standing in the international community.

Sen. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) -- An unlikely aspirant. He'll be too shell-shocked when he realizes he just paid a $60 million membership fee to get into the world's lamest country club.

Oprah Winfrey (D-IL) -- More powerful than a mere senator, and with an informed social consciousness, the Big O might think that after the deep divisions endured by Campaign 2000 the nation is ready for someone to bring us together spiritually. Imagine a cabinet with Sarah Ban Breathnach as Secretary of Self-Esteem and tough-talking Dr. Phil McGraw telling it like it is as Attorney General. But Oprah would have a long row to hoe -- she's an entrepreneur, one of the most despised classes in the Democratic Party.

Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD) -- The Senate Split Majority Leader will be too preoccupied agonizing over Dick Cheney being the GOP's 51st vote to mount any serious presidential bid. Look for him to spend much of his time jumping out from around corners to scare the bejesus out of Strom Thurmond and induce a heart attack. But if he's not Majority Leader by January 2003, a run wouldn't be out of the question.

Rep. Richard Gephardt (D-MO) -- Unlikely he would reprise his shuttered 1988 act and run for the presidency again. May settle for Speaker of the House, which he could very likely be after the 2002 elections (assuming he can again squeak by in his own tight district).

Sen. Joseph Biden (D-DE) -- Another 1988 also-ran, but Biden stands to benefit from the Clinton/Gore legacy of Defining Political Deviancy Down. Biden's previous bid for the Democratic nod was torpedoed by revelations he was cribbing campaign speeches from British socialist Neil Kinnock (which is kind of like stealing your diet tips from Elizabeth Taylor). Compared to Bill Clinton, Biden looks positively virtuous. Whether he's spouting his own words or Kinnock's, Biden is a charming and able orator. Plus, his hair implants took nicely. He's ready to go.

Rev. Jesse Jackson, Sr. (D-IL) -- Holding a press conference condemning a return to Selma every time a black person gets a speeding ticket has made this High Holy Man of the Left a laughingstock. Jackson is just Al Sharpton on Slimfast.

Alec Baldwin (D-Hamptons) -- It may be difficult to campaign from France, which is where we expect to see Baldwin end up to make good on his pledge to flee the States during a Bush presidency.

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) -- Boxer might find serving in the Senate with Hillary Clinton so uncomfortable that she would seek solace on the campaign trail. Hillary's brother, after all, was married to Boxer's daughter in a union that ended badly. So a candidacy is not out of the question, if only to preserve a mother's sanity. And winning statewide election in California is no mean feat, though, like Hillary in New York, it's unlikely Boxer would translate well beyond the Golden State's borders.

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) -- To the sane he would appear to be a formidable Democratic candidate. But to the hard-core Democratic faithful, he doesn't stand a chance. He doesn't enthusiastically support partial-birth abortion, which to the organic-food-and-shower-once-a-week crowd makes him the moral equivalent of Randall Terry. The left vetoed him for the relatively unobjectionable position of vice president on the Gore ticket. What makes anyone think he'd get through the Democratic primaries?

Sen. Paul Wellstone (D-MN) -- He thought about running this year, but health considerations made him shelve his White House dreams. Assuming the docs give him the OK, don't be surprised to see him throw his frumpy academic's cloth cap into the ring for 2004. Wellstone's smart enough to do the math: Gore's vote + Nader's vote = 52 percent.

These are just some of the horses warming up in the paddock. No doubt others are thinking about joining the race. But with less than 47 months before voters go the polls to pick the next-next-president, it's hardly too early to start handicapping the race.

Coming next week: An analysis of the 2008 fields

Max Schulz (mschulz@cei.org) is editorial director at the Competitive Enterprise Institute.



-- Lars (lars@indy.net), December 19, 2000

Answers

Methinks Gore is gone. Nothing is deader than a Presidential candidate who lost. Think Ford, Carter, Mondale, Dukakis, Bush the elder.

-- Lars (lars@indy.net), December 19, 2000.

Methinks after 4 years of listening to the major league asshole, Gore is back, BIG TIME.

-- Dick Cheney (sick.of@the.idiot.already), December 19, 2000.

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