Economic Signs Point To a Global Slowdown Tom Buerkle and Thomas Fuller International Herald Tribune Thursday, November 30, 2000 Gloom Takes Biggest Toll on Tech Stocks Mounting signs of economic slowdown are taking a heavy toll on stock markets around the world and leading investors to take a much more critical view of the prospects for technology stocks, which until recent months have led the global bull market. . An accumulation of weaker-than-expected economic data, particularly in the United States, has raised fears that growth could be in the process of slowing abruptly rather than settling at a healthy, sustainable rate, economists and fund managers said. . Those concerns were highlighted Wednesday by a Commerce Department report that the U.S. economy grew at a revised rate of 2.4 percent in the third quarter, the slowest pace in four years and down from an initial estimate of 2.7 percent. In the previous quarter, the economy grew at a 5.6 percent rate. . "Almost every day now we're seeing data that's suggestive of a steeper downturn," said Ken Forman, head of strategy at Standard Life Investments. . Economies around the world are starting to show the effect of interest rate increases by central banks over the past 18 months, sharply higher energy prices and a big slump in the technology sector, said Michael Reynnells, an economist at the forecasting firm ISI Group Inc. in New York. ISI predicts that the U.S. economy will suffer a so-called hard landing next year, with growth slowing to a rate of 2 percent and unemployment rising, and it believes the risk of an outright recession has risen to 40 percent. . The new bearishness about the economic outlook explains the sharp plunge in technology stocks in recent weeks. The Nasdaq composite index, which showed signs of stabilizing in October, has plunged 21 percent in the past three weeks. The index finished down 28.85 points at 2,706.13 Wednesday, while the Dow Jones industrial average closed 121.53 points higher at 10,629.11. . "People are realizing that tech stocks are cyclical," said David Bowers, global strategist at Merrill Lynch Co. in New York. "This is developing in quite a vicious circle. You're in a position where people are close to capitulation. People are almost universally bearish." . But some investors see signs of better value in the tech sector at these depressed levels. Mark Glazener, head of the global equity team at the big Dutch fund group Robeco, said the group had begun to buy selective technology stocks including Dell Computer Corp. and EMC Group Inc., for which it felt valuations had fallen too far relative to their earnings prospects. Still, most analysts and fund managers said technology and telecom stocks would remain vulnerable to pressure as investors continue to focus on defensive areas like pharmaceuticals, utilities and financial stocks. . Mr. Forman said the weakness in the U.S. economy appeared to be concentrated in the corporate sector, where the growth in investment slowed to a revised rate of 5.8 percent from an initial estimate of 8.5 percent, rather than the consumer sector, where early reports suggest strong retail sales during the year-end holiday season. . Mr. Bowers said that he believed many technology stocks had been oversold, but that bearish sentiment and a credit crunch were still weighing on the sector. The yield on Merrill Lynch's index of high yield, or "junk," bonds has surged nearly 2 points to 13.8 percent in the past two months, fully 7.75 points higher than comparable U.S. Treasury securities. "Technology and telecoms are going to be most vulnerable to that," he said. . One potential beneficiary of the darker U.S. economic outlook is the euro. The long suffering single currency has gained about 2 cents this week because of perceptions that the U.S. economy is slowing more rapidly than the European economy, according to Avinash Persaud, strategist at State Street Bank. The bank on Wednesday recommended for the first time that clients buy the euro for long-term appreciation. . "The market is becoming more convinced that there has been a turnaround of fortunes," Mr. Persaud said. He noted that Standard Poor's 500 index of U.S. stocks has declined 7.4 percent since Sept. 22, when central banks first intervened to defend the euro, while the leading 300 European shares have declined only 3.5 percent in dollar terms in that period. . In Asia, most stock markets closed lower on Wednesday, led by declines in technology and telecom shares. The key index in Tokyo fell 1.03 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index lost 2.73 percent and the benchmark South Korean index lost 3.82 percent. . The declines highlight a paradox that has dogged investors in Asia since the beginning of the year: Economies around the region have been growing at a brisk pace, yet stock markets have tumbled in unison. . In South Korea, the government recently reported that the economy grew 9.2 percent in the third quarter and is projected to rise 9 percent for the year. Yet Seoul's main stock index is down about 50 percent for the year. Similarly, Hong Kong's economy is expected to grow by 10 percent this year, while the Hang Seng index is down 16 percent. Taiwan's economy is expected to expand about 6.8 percent, yet the country's main stock index is down 37 percent. . "Economies and stock markets are being driven by completely different factors," said Mohamed Ariff, executive director of the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research. While growth is being buoyed by exports and government spending, many Asian companies are still mired in debt from the financial crisis of three years ago, he said. . "Corporate restructuring has been dismal," Mr. Ariff said, because markets are not convinced that the corporate sector is being cleaned up. . The outlook in Asia is deteriorating. The International Monetary Fund recently said its estimate of 6.6 percent growth in Asia next year was probably too optimistic. Analysts said a slowdown in the United States and Europe could reduce Asian economic growth by several points. . Bank Issues Lift Dow . Financial and drug stocks helped the Dow industrials gain Wednesday as investors sought shares that are relatively inexpensive, Bloomberg News reported from New York. . The Dow closed up 1.2 percent at 10,629.11, and the Standard Poor's 500 index rose 5.68 points, or 0.43 percent, to 1,341.77. . The Nasdaq composite, meanwhile, dropped 1.05 percent to 2,706.13, its eighth loss in nine sessions. The Nasdaq, which is two thirds computer-related and telecommunications stocks, has fallen 46 percent from its March 10 record and 33.5 percent for the year. . Citigroup rose $1.81 to $49.44 and American Express gained $1.81 to $56.94. . "Financials are my favorite sector for 2001," said David Katz, chief investment officer for Matrix Asset Advisors. "You have good companies selling for seven to 10 times earnings." . Merck gained $2.25 to $94.88 and Pfizer climbed 69 cents to $45.69. Drug stocks are considered "defensive" holdings in the case of an economic downturn. . Ciena, a maker of optical networking equipment, led the decliners on the Nasdaq, down $10.50 at $73.50. Though the shares have fallen sharply lately, they still trade for 236 times projected profits. . Treasury bond prices rose as signs of an economic slowdown bolstered expectations of an interest-rate cut by Federal Reserve Board policymakers sometime in 2001. The yield on the benchmark 30-year issue slipped to 5.66 percent from 5.67 percent. For Related Topics See: Business Front Page Technology

< < Back to Start of Article Gloom Takes Biggest Toll on Tech Stocks Mounting signs of economic slowdown are taking a heavy toll on stock markets around the world and leading investors to take a much more critical view of the prospects for technology stocks, which until recent months have led the global bull market. . An accumulation of weaker-than-expected economic data, particularly in the United States, has raised fears that growth could be in the process of slowing abruptly rather than settling at a healthy, sustainable rate, economists and fund managers said. . Those concerns were highlighted Wednesday by a Commerce Department report that the U.S. economy grew at a revised rate of 2.4 percent in the third quarter, the slowest pace in four years and down from an initial estimate of 2.7 percent. In the previous quarter, the economy grew at a 5.6 percent rate. . "Almost every day now we're seeing data that's suggestive of a steeper downturn," said Ken Forman, head of strategy at Standard Life Investments. . Economies around the world are starting to show the effect of interest rate increases by central banks over the past 18 months, sharply higher energy prices and a big slump in the technology sector, said Michael Reynnells, an economist at the forecasting firm ISI Group Inc. in New York. ISI predicts that the U.S. economy will suffer a so-called hard landing next year, with growth slowing to a rate of 2 percent and unemployment rising, and it believes the risk of an outright recession has risen to 40 percent. . The new bearishness about the economic outlook explains the sharp plunge in technology stocks in recent weeks. The Nasdaq composite index, which showed signs of stabilizing in October, has plunged 21 percent in the past three weeks. The index finished down 28.85 points at 2,706.13 Wednesday, while the Dow Jones industrial average closed 121.53 points higher at 10,629.11. . "People are realizing that tech stocks are cyclical," said David Bowers, global strategist at Merrill Lynch Co. in New York. "This is developing in quite a vicious circle. You're in a position where people are close to capitulation. People are almost universally bearish." . But some investors see signs of better value in the tech sector at these depressed levels. Mark Glazener, head of the global equity team at the big Dutch fund group Robeco, said the group had begun to buy selective technology stocks including Dell Computer Corp. and EMC Group Inc., for which it felt valuations had fallen too far relative to their earnings prospects. Still, most analysts and fund managers said technology and telecom stocks would remain vulnerable to pressure as investors continue to focus on defensive areas like pharmaceuticals, utilities and financial stocks. . Mr. Forman said the weakness in the U.S. economy appeared to be concentrated in the corporate sector, where the growth in investment slowed to a revised rate of 5.8 percent from an initial estimate of 8.5 percent, rather than the consumer sector, where early reports suggest strong retail sales during the year-end holiday season. . Mr. Bowers said that he believed many technology stocks had been oversold, but that bearish sentiment and a credit crunch were still weighing on the sector. The yield on Merrill Lynch's index of high yield, or "junk," bonds has surged nearly 2 points to 13.8 percent in the past two months, fully 7.75 points higher than comparable U.S. Treasury securities. "Technology and telecoms are going to be most vulnerable to that," he said. . One potential beneficiary of the darker U.S. economic outlook is the euro. The long suffering single currency has gained about 2 cents this week because of perceptions that the U.S. economy is slowing more rapidly than the European economy, according to Avinash Persaud, strategist at State Street Bank. The bank on Wednesday recommended for the first time that clients buy the euro for long-term appreciation. . "The market is becoming more convinced that there has been a turnaround of fortunes," Mr. Persaud said. He noted that Standard Poor's 500 index of U.S. stocks has declined 7.4 percent since Sept. 22, when central banks first intervened to defend the euro, while the leading 300 European shares have declined only 3.5 percent in dollar terms in that period. . In Asia, most stock markets closed lower on Wednesday, led by declines in technology and telecom shares. The key index in Tokyo fell 1.03 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index lost 2.73 percent and the benchmark South Korean index lost 3.82 percent. . The declines highlight a paradox that has dogged investors in Asia since the beginning of the year: Economies around the region have been growing at a brisk pace, yet stock markets have tumbled in unison. . In South Korea, the government recently reported that the economy grew 9.2 percent in the third quarter and is projected to rise 9 percent for the year. Yet Seoul's main stock index is down about 50 percent for the year. Similarly, Hong Kong's economy is expected to grow by 10 percent this year, while the Hang Seng index is down 16 percent. Taiwan's economy is expected to expand about 6.8 percent, yet the country's main stock index is down 37 percent. . "Economies and stock markets are being driven by completely different factors," said Mohamed Ariff, executive director of the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research. While growth is being buoyed by exports and government spending, many Asian companies are still mired in debt from the financial crisis of three years ago, he said. . "Corporate restructuring has been dismal," Mr. Ariff said, because markets are not convinced that the corporate sector is being cleaned up. . The outlook in Asia is deteriorating. The International Monetary Fund recently said its estimate of 6.6 percent growth in Asia next year was probably too optimistic. Analysts said a slowdown in the United States and Europe could reduce Asian economic growth by several points. . Bank Issues Lift Dow . Financial and drug stocks helped the Dow industrials gain Wednesday as investors sought shares that are relatively inexpensive, Bloomberg News reported from New York. . The Dow closed up 1.2 percent at 10,629.11, and the Standard Poor's 500 index rose 5.68 points, or 0.43 percent, to 1,341.77. . The Nasdaq composite, meanwhile, dropped 1.05 percent to 2,706.13, its eighth loss in nine sessions. The Nasdaq, which is two thirds computer-related and telecommunications stocks, has fallen 46 percent from its March 10 record and 33.5 percent for the year. . Citigroup rose $1.81 to $49.44 and American Express gained $1.81 to $56.94. . "Financials are my favorite sector for 2001," said David Katz, chief investment officer for Matrix Asset Advisors. "You have good companies selling for seven to 10 times earnings." . Merck gained $2.25 to $94.88 and Pfizer climbed 69 cents to $45.69. Drug stocks are considered "defensive" holdings in the case of an economic downturn. . Ciena, a maker of optical networking equipment, led the decliners on the Nasdaq, down $10.50 at $73.50. Though the shares have fallen sharply lately, they still trade for 236 times projected profits. . Treasury bond prices rose as signs of an economic slowdown bolstered expectations of an interest-rate cut by Federal Reserve Board policymakers sometime in 2001. The yield on the benchmark 30-year issue slipped to 5.66 percent from 5.67 percent. Gloom Takes Biggest Toll on Tech Stocks Mounting signs of economic slowdown are taking a heavy toll on stock markets around the world and leading investors to take a much more critical view of the prospects for technology stocks, which until recent months have led the global bull market. . An accumulation of weaker-than-expected economic data, particularly in the United States, has raised fears that growth could be in the process of slowing abruptly rather than settling at a healthy, sustainable rate, economists and fund managers said. . Those concerns were highlighted Wednesday by a Commerce Department report that the U.S. economy grew at a revised rate of 2.4 percent in the third quarter, the slowest pace in four years and down from an initial estimate of 2.7 percent. In the previous quarter, the economy grew at a 5.6 percent rate. . "Almost every day now we're seeing data that's suggestive of a steeper downturn," said Ken Forman, head of strategy at Standard Life Investments. . Economies around the world are starting to show the effect of interest rate increases by central banks over the past 18 months, sharply higher energy prices and a big slump in the technology sector, said Michael Reynnells, an economist at the forecasting firm ISI Group Inc. in New York. ISI predicts that the U.S. economy will suffer a so-called hard landing next year, with growth slowing to a rate of 2 percent and unemployment rising, and it believes the risk of an outright recession has risen to 40 percent. . The new bearishness about the economic outlook explains the sharp plunge in technology stocks in recent weeks. The Nasdaq composite index, which showed signs of stabilizing in October, has plunged 21 percent in the past three weeks. The index finished down 28.85 points at 2,706.13 Wednesday, while the Dow Jones industrial average closed 121.53 points higher at 10,629.11. . "People are realizing that tech stocks are cyclical," said David Bowers, global strategist at Merrill Lynch Co. in New York. "This is developing in quite a vicious circle. You're in a position where people are close to capitulation. People are almost universally bearish." . But some investors see signs of better value in the tech sector at these depressed levels. Mark Glazener, head of the global equity team at the big Dutch fund group Robeco, said the group had begun to buy selective technology stocks including Dell Computer Corp. and EMC Group Inc., for which it felt valuations had fallen too far relative to their earnings prospects. Still, most analysts and fund managers said technology and telecom stocks would remain vulnerable to pressure as investors continue to focus on defensive areas like pharmaceuticals, utilities and financial stocks. . Mr. Forman said the weakness in the U.S. economy appeared to be concentrated in the corporate sector, where the growth in investment slowed to a revised rate of 5.8 percent from an initial estimate of 8.5 percent, rather than the consumer sector, where early reports suggest strong retail sales during the year-end holiday season. . Mr. Bowers said that he believed many technology stocks had been oversold, but that bearish sentiment and a credit crunch were still weighing on the sector. The yield on Merrill Lynch's index of high yield, or "junk," bonds has surged nearly 2 points to 13.8 percent in the past two months, fully 7.75 points higher than comparable U.S. Treasury securities. "Technology and telecoms are going to be most vulnerable to that," he said. . One potential beneficiary of the darker U.S. economic outlook is the euro. The long suffering single currency has gained about 2 cents this week because of perceptions that the U.S. economy is slowing more rapidly than the European economy, according to Avinash Persaud, strategist at State Street Bank. The bank on Wednesday recommended for the first time that clients buy the euro for long-term appreciation. . "The market is becoming more convinced that there has been a turnaround of fortunes," Mr. Persaud said. He noted that Standard Poor's 500 index of U.S. stocks has declined 7.4 percent since Sept. 22, when central banks first intervened to defend the euro, while the leading 300 European shares have declined only 3.5 percent in dollar terms in that period. . In Asia, most stock markets closed lower on Wednesday, led by declines in technology and telecom shares. The key index in Tokyo fell 1.03 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index lost 2.73 percent and the benchmark South Korean index lost 3.82 percent. . The declines highlight a paradox that has dogged investors in Asia since the beginning of the year: Economies around the region have been growing at a brisk pace, yet stock markets have tumbled in unison. . In South Korea, the government recently reported that the economy grew 9.2 percent in the third quarter and is projected to rise 9 percent for the year. Yet Seoul's main stock index is down about 50 percent for the year. Similarly, Hong Kong's economy is expected to grow by 10 percent this year, while the Hang Seng index is down 16 percent. Taiwan's economy is expected to expand about 6.8 percent, yet the country's main stock index is down 37 percent. . "Economies and stock markets are being driven by completely different factors," said Mohamed Ariff, executive director of the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research. While growth is being buoyed by exports and government spending, many Asian companies are still mired in debt from the financial crisis of three years ago, he said. . "Corporate restructuring has been dismal," Mr. Ariff said, because markets are not convinced that the corporate sector is being cleaned up. . The outlook in Asia is deteriorating. The International Monetary Fund recently said its estimate of 6.6 percent growth in Asia next year was probably too optimistic. Analysts said a slowdown in the United States and Europe could reduce Asian economic growth by several points. . Bank Issues Lift Dow . Financial and drug stocks helped the Dow industrials gain Wednesday as investors sought shares that are relatively inexpensive, Bloomberg News reported from New York. . The Dow closed up 1.2 percent at 10,629.11, and the Standard Poor's 500 index rose 5.68 points, or 0.43 percent, to 1,341.77. . The Nasdaq composite, meanwhile, dropped 1.05 percent to 2,706.13, its eighth loss in nine sessions. The Nasdaq, which is two thirds computer-related and telecommunications stocks, has fallen 46 percent from its March 10 record and 33.5 percent for the year. . Citigroup rose $1.81 to $49.44 and American Express gained $1.81 to $56.94. . "Financials are my favorite sector for 2001," said David Katz, chief investment officer for Matrix Asset Advisors. "You have good companies selling for seven to 10 times earnings." . Merck gained $2.25 to $94.88 and Pfizer climbed 69 cents to $45.69. Drug stocks are considered "defensive" holdings in the case of an economic downturn. . Ciena, a maker of optical networking equipment, led the decliners on the Nasdaq, down $10.50 at $73.50. Though the shares have fallen sharply lately, they still trade for 236 times projected profits. . Treasury bond prices rose as signs of an economic slowdown bolstered expectations of an interest-rate cut by Federal Reserve Board policymakers sometime in 2001. The yield on the benchmark 30-year issue slipped to 5.66 percent from 5.67 percent. Gloom Takes Biggest Toll on Tech Stocks Mounting signs of economic slowdown are taking a heavy toll on stock markets around the world and leading investors to take a much more critical view of the prospects for technology stocks, which until recent months have led the global bull market. . An accumulation of weaker-than-expected economic data, particularly in the United States, has raised fears that growth could be in the process of slowing abruptly rather than settling at a healthy, sustainable rate, economists and fund managers said. . Those concerns were highlighted Wednesday by a Commerce Department report that the U.S. economy grew at a revised rate of 2.4 percent in the third quarter, the slowest pace in four years and down from an initial estimate of 2.7 percent. In the previous quarter, the economy grew at a 5.6 percent rate. . "Almost every day now we're seeing data that's suggestive of a steeper downturn," said Ken Forman, head of strategy at Standard Life Investments. . Economies around the world are starting to show the effect of interest rate increases by central banks over the past 18 months, sharply higher energy prices and a big slump in the technology sector, said Michael Reynnells, an economist at the forecasting firm ISI Group Inc. in New York. ISI predicts that the U.S. economy will suffer a so-called hard landing next year, with growth slowing to a rate of 2 percent and unemployment rising, and it believes the risk of an outright recession has risen to 40 percent. . The new bearishness about the economic outlook explains the sharp plunge in technology stocks in recent weeks. The Nasdaq composite index, which showed signs of stabilizing in October, has plunged 21 percent in the past three weeks. The index finished down 28.85 points at 2,706.13 Wednesday, while the Dow Jones industrial average closed 121.53 points higher at 10,629.11. . "People are realizing that tech stocks are cyclical," said David Bowers, global strategist at Merrill Lynch Co. in New York. "This is developing in quite a vicious circle. You're in a position where people are close to capitulation. People are almost universally bearish." . But some investors see signs of better value in the tech sector at these depressed levels. Mark Glazener, head of the global equity team at the big Dutch fund group Robeco, said the group had begun to buy selective technology stocks including Dell Computer Corp. and EMC Group Inc., for which it felt valuations had fallen too far relative to their earnings prospects. Still, most analysts and fund managers said technology and telecom stocks would remain vulnerable to pressure as investors continue to focus on defensive areas like pharmaceuticals, utilities and financial stocks. . Mr. Forman said the weakness in the U.S. economy appeared to be concentrated in the corporate sector, where the growth in investment slowed to a revised rate of 5.8 percent from an initial estimate of 8.5 percent, rather than the consumer sector, where early reports suggest strong retail sales during the year-end holiday season. . Mr. Bowers said that he believed many technology stocks had been oversold, but that bearish sentiment and a credit crunch were still weighing on the sector. The yield on Merrill Lynch's index of high yield, or "junk," bonds has surged nearly 2 points to 13.8 percent in the past two months, fully 7.75 points higher than comparable U.S. Treasury securities. "Technology and telecoms are going to be most vulnerable to that," he said. . One potential beneficiary of the darker U.S. economic outlook is the euro. The long suffering single currency has gained about 2 cents this week because of perceptions that the U.S. economy is slowing more rapidly than the European economy, according to Avinash Persaud, strategist at State Street Bank. The bank on Wednesday recommended for the first time that clients buy the euro for long-term appreciation. . "The market is becoming more convinced that there has been a turnaround of fortunes," Mr. Persaud said. He noted that Standard Poor's 500 index of U.S. stocks has declined 7.4 percent since Sept. 22, when central banks first intervened to defend the euro, while the leading 300 European shares have declined only 3.5 percent in dollar terms in that period. . In Asia, most stock markets closed lower on Wednesday, led by declines in technology and telecom shares. The key index in Tokyo fell 1.03 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index lost 2.73 percent and the benchmark South Korean index lost 3.82 percent. . The declines highlight a paradox that has dogged investors in Asia since the beginning of the year: Economies around the region have been growing at a brisk pace, yet stock markets have tumbled in unison. . In South Korea, the government recently reported that the economy grew 9.2 percent in the third quarter and is projected to rise 9 percent for the year. Yet Seoul's main stock index is down about 50 percent for the year. Similarly, Hong Kong's economy is expected to grow by 10 percent this year, while the Hang Seng index is down 16 percent. Taiwan's economy is expected to expand about 6.8 percent, yet the country's main stock index is down 37 percent. . "Economies and stock markets are being driven by completely different factors," said Mohamed Ariff, executive director of the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research. While growth is being buoyed by exports and government spending, many Asian companies are still mired in debt from the financial crisis of three years ago, he said. . "Corporate restructuring has been dismal," Mr. Ariff said, because markets are not convinced that the corporate sector is being cleaned up. . The outlook in Asia is deteriorating. The International Monetary Fund recently said its estimate of 6.6 percent growth in Asia next year was probably too optimistic. Analysts said a slowdown in the United States and Europe could reduce Asian economic growth by several points. . Bank Issues Lift Dow . Financial and drug stocks helped the Dow industrials gain Wednesday as investors sought shares that are relatively inexpensive, Bloomberg News reported from New York. . The Dow closed up 1.2 percent at 10,629.11, and the Standard Poor's 500 index rose 5.68 points, or 0.43 percent, to 1,341.77. . The Nasdaq composite, meanwhile, dropped 1.05 percent to 2,706.13, its eighth loss in nine sessions. The Nasdaq, which is two thirds computer-related and telecommunications stocks, has fallen 46 percent from its March 10 record and 33.5 percent for the year. . Citigroup rose $1.81 to $49.44 and American Express gained $1.81 to $56.94. . "Financials are my favorite sector for 2001," said David Katz, chief investment officer for Matrix Asset Advisors. "You have good companies selling for seven to 10 times earnings." . Merck gained $2.25 to $94.88 and Pfizer climbed 69 cents to $45.69. Drug stocks are considered "defensive" holdings in the case of an economic downturn. . Ciena, a maker of optical networking equipment, led the decliners on the Nasdaq, down $10.50 at $73.50. Though the shares have fallen sharply lately, they still trade for 236 times projected profits. . Treasury bond prices rose as signs of an economic slowdown bolstered expectations of an interest-rate cut by Federal Reserve Board policymakers sometime in 2001. The yield on the benchmark 30-year issue slipped to 5.66 percent from 5.67 percent.

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