FactFinder's Poll Watch for Monday 10 PM, 11/6/2000

Three day rolling average polls except for Battleground which is a 4 day average.

Major League Polls Bush Gore Nader Portrait of America - 3 day rolling avg 11/2,4,5** - 3750 total likely voters 48 41 4 Zogby Reuters/MSNBC - 3 day rolling avg thru 11/5*, 1200 total likely voters 46 48 4 Gallup CNN/USA Today- 2 day poll11/4,5***, 2386 total likely voters 47 45 4 Voter.com Battleground 4 day rolling avg 11/1,2,3,5, 1000 total likely voters 46 37 5

Minor League Polls Bush Gore Nader ABC News, 3 day tracking thru 11/5, 1801 total likely voters 48 45 3 CBS News, 4 day thru 11/5, 943 total likely voters 46 42 5 Pew Research 11-2 thru 11-5, 1301 likely voters 45 43 4

* Reuters says poll conducted Sat, Sun, Monday, Fox News says this poll was conducted 2pm Friday through Sunday.

** Rasmussen POA poll skipped Friday 11/3, since many pollsters consider Friday afternoons (and the weekend in general to a lesser degree) as a bad time to poll due to people being away from home. (Source: Rasmussen, Brit Hume of FoxNews, my observation that polls have tended to fluctuate more over the weekends than through the week)

** Gallup change to 2 day poll, previous poll was 3 day

Comments

Rasmussen on Fox News tonight said to watch early projections (viewer exit polls), first for West Virginia, if it goes for Bush, Democrats my be in trouble. Then at 8pm est/dst, some of the "battleground" state exit polls will close, watch the exit polls. Rasmussen will be on Fox News election night as results come in.

Changes on the order of up to 4% per candidate are statistically insignificant for Battleground and Zogby ( 2 % for the Gallup and Rasmussen Potrait of America polls which have larger samples). When you see obvious trends over several weeks, or trends over several days across numerous polls, then those trends are likely to be significant (even slight ones on the order of 1-2%). Both Gallup and Rasmussen's Portrait of America poll have increased their voter sample size.

Change from Yesterdays Poll Releases

POA: No change from previous poll release. Friday 11/3 ommited from poll for accuracy purposes, see ** notes above.

Gallup: In 2 day poll (compared to previous poll which was 3 day poll): Gore up 2, Bush same, Nader down 1,.margin change 2% from yesterday in Gore favor. Trend to Gore over last couple of days in short term polls. Gallup 6 day poll: Bush 47, Gore 43, Nader 5.

Zogby: Gore up 2, Bush down 1, margin change 3% from yesterday in Gore favor, weekend trend favors Gore who has 2 point lead in this poll.

Voter.com Battleground: No change from previous poll release.

ABC News: Bush down 1, Gore same, Nader same.

CBS News: Bush down 1, Gore same, Nader up 1.

Pew Research: Bush down 1, Gore same, Nader up 1.

Bush up 1, Gore down 2, Nader down 1. Margin change 3% from yesterday in Bush favor (statistically insignificant).

Parting Shots

"..indications are that this could be the closest presidential election in US history..." Dan Rather, CBS News

"...could be the closest presidential election in 40 years" network TV news

Gallup poll shows similar trend toward Gore as Zogby. Last minute changes in the polls have happened before, and the actual vote has often been far from the polls. Happened with Reagan, slightly behind, won by 10 points. In 1996, Dole moved up only in the last day of the Gallup poll (I think by 4 or 5 points, don't have the sheet in front of me). Actual Dole vote was 5% over most polls. So, it could happen. A big late move to Gore?

This just ain't gonna happen, folks.

The Gallup poll was cut back to 2 days, smaller sample, covering only the weekend (Saturday and Sunday). Zogby had Gore up by 11 in Florida, then down to 1, then....

I don't generally like Brit Hume's dry sarcasm since its way too much like mine, but last week he was one of only a few that took a look at weeks of Bush 3 to 7 point leads by almost all polls and said that it didn't look that close to him. Brit isn't one to grasp every straw for the story of the century, so I go with him on this one:

" ...this Zogby poll is an anomoly, pollsters say that weekends are worst time to poll, all other polls show Bush in the lead, by 3,4, 7, even 9 points." Brit Hume, Fox News (paraphrased)

In the presidential election, the surprise vote, the big push, typically goes for the outsider, not the "incumbant." The Republican, not the Democrat. Rasmussens POA poll is the largest by far, and shows none of this weekend blip. The pollsters are scrambling to get their polls in the best shape possible (Gallup and Rasmussen staffs are even working the phones tonight per the news). I expect to see swings back to Bush in Zogby and Gallup polls.

The pollsters reputations and bragging rights will be on the line come tomorrow night. Rasmussen did well in the primaries, Gallup is ususally in the top three with Zogby. Go vote, and we can compare actual results vs. the polls after the election.

My projection? Exactly the same as posted yesterday. It was never a really close race from the popular vote standpoint (click on the POA link above and see the trend chart), but it does make a good news story say so.

~ FF

-- David (David@bzn.com), November 06, 2000

Answers

Zogby will not let this happen, the numbers will move toward Bush before their final Reuters/MSNBC poll....I guarantee it!

-- David (David@bzn.com) November 6, 2000

Man, you're really a glutton for punishment!

-- Hey stupid -- say you were wrong (c'mon@you.can.do.it), November 06, 2000.

Hey you asshole, you said that your last load of crap was your FINAL presentation! Do you know what FINAL means? Typical Bush fan, lying and breaking promises!

-- (final@is.final), November 06, 2000.

Uh, final, you need to enroll in a remedial reading course, I posted my final projections (a Bush win). This thread is a list of the polls...there is a difference....

-- David (David@bzn.com), November 06, 2000.

"stupid", Zogby (Reuters/MSNBC)will post there final polls by tomorrow am....read it, and get back to me then.

-- David (David@bzn.com), November 06, 2000.

Michael Lewis-Beck, a political scientist from Iowa, predicted the last national election numbers within one tenth of one percent. He says polls don't matter, all that matters is the level of prosperity. Based on his computations, it's a Gore landslide tomorrow.

-- Gore will win (sorry@david.com), November 07, 2000.

David,

What's the chance of you providing the % for Browne and the Libertarian's ? If it's not too much to ask,thanks.

-- capnfun (capnfun1@excite.com), November 07, 2000.

David (Factfinder) said the day before the election:

>> My projection? Exactly the same as posted yesterday. It was never a really close race from the popular vote standpoint <<

As of late Wednesday, November 8, all I can say is: "never really close" does apply here, but to your projection, certainly not to the election results.

Any lessons to be learned here?

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), November 08, 2000.