Bush widens his lead to 49% - Gore at 42% margin of error +/- 4 pointsgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TB2K spinoff uncensored : One Thread
Bush now holds a seven percentage point lead over Vice President Al Gore, 49% to 42%
-- Ain't Gonna Happen (Not Here Not@ever.com), October 27, 2000
Sorry Charlie, this report is newer than yours...
Thursday October 26 6:37 PM ET
Gore's Two-Point Lead Unchanged in Reuters/MSNBC Poll
By Alan Elsner, Political Correspondent
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Al Gore (news - web sites) kept a slim two-percentage-point lead over Republican George W. Bush (news - web sites) on Thursday in the tight U.S. presidential race, the Reuters/MSNBC daily tracking poll found.
The survey of 1,206 likely voters in the Nov. 7 election, conducted Tuesday through Thursday by pollster John Zogby, found the vice president steady with 45 percent and Bush with 43 percent, unchanged from Wednesday's poll. Twelve days remain until the Nov. 7 election.
Green Party nominee Ralph Nader (news - web sites) polled 4 percent; Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan (news - web sites) stayed at 1 percent and the rest remained undecided.
The race remained well within the statistical margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. A candidate would have to be more than six points in the lead to be outside that zone of uncertainty -- something neither man has achieved since the poll began on Sept. 29.
``Bush and Gore are each drawing solid support from their party base while Gore has opened a slight lead among independents,'' said Zogby.
``Bush supporters appear to be only slightly less likely to change their vote. One in four Nader supporters still could change their vote,'' he said.
In a race this close, national polls cannot predict a winner because the election is likely to be decided in key swing states. Reuters and MSNBC will begin daily tracking polls in nine such battleground states this weekend while continuing the national surveys.
In the equally tight race for the House of Representatives, voters prefer the Democrats by five points, which would likely be enough for the party to achieve the net gain of seven seats they require to regain control from the Republicans.
When undecided voters were asked which way they leaned in the presidential race, they broke more than 2-to-1 for Gore.
Eighty-eight percent of respondents said they had definitely made up their minds. Forty-three percent have ruled out voting for Bush and an identical 43 percent for Gore.
Gore leads Bush by double digits in the East and by seven points in the West, while Bush leads by 11 points in the South. The two were tied in the all-important Midwest region where many experts believe the election will be decided.
The vice president leads overwhelmingly among voters aged 18 to 24, who in past elections have been the least likely to vote. Other age groups are closer.
While Bush is winning the support of more than 84 percent of Republicans, Gore has in recent days increased his backing among Democrats to 80 percent. But Nader is still winning 7 percent of the Democratic vote, hurting Gore.
Bush leads among white voters by 50 percent to 38 percent. But Gore is winning substantially among Hispanics and is taking more than 85 percent of the black vote.
Reuters and MSNBC will release a new poll every day until the election at 6:30 p.m.
-- (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 27, 2000.
Reuters and MSNBC will release a new poll every day until the election at 6:30 p.m. And so they have...
Bush Edges Ahead Again in Reuters/MSNBC Poll
But wait a day or so, there are plenty of polls to choose from, and a much wider margin of error than the pollsters claim....
-- David (David@bzn.com), October 27, 2000.