With energy markets panicked, supplies already low, an heating oil prices climbing toward $2 a gallon, many homeowners in the Southern tier are left ... Over a barrel BY TODD McADAM Business Writer

Winter should be a comfortable time - time to read a good book or watch the Miami Dolphins shiver in Buffalo. But this winter, instead of the Sunday football scores, you may be paying attention to the commodities market, as you struggle to keep your heating bills down. How will America do against oil futures? Will natural gas make the spread?

"It's going to be a difficult winter," said Michael German, president of New York State Electric & Gas Corp. He has more than two decades of experience in the natural gas and energy industries and, on this day, a splitting headache. "The energy markets are about as panicked as they've been since 1979."

If you're a NYSEG customer and heat with natural gas - as many people do in the Triple Cities and more urban areas of the Southern Tier - you can take comfort in knowing your rates are fixed. Even if NYSEG has to pay more to get the gas, you won't. The supply is there and it will get to your house.

But if you live in a rural area and heat with oil or propane, you could pay a lot more to heat your home this winter.

Here's what the federal Department of Energy predicts:

Oil supplies already are low and prices, which peaked near $2 a gallon last year, will be higher this year. If winter is normal - last year was mild - you will need more oil, too.

Propane inventories will be low to start, and higher world oil prices will keep costs up.

Natural gas supplies will be sufficient, unless winter is very harsh; but prices will be as much as 50 percent higher for those who pay according to market rates. That's almost everyone in New York except NYSEG residential customers.

"I would say don't panic; ride it out," German said from his Kirkwood office. "But I don't want to be held to that legally."

-- Martin Thompson (mthom1927@aol.com), October 01, 2000

Answers

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Planning is key Joe Mirabito has been looking at the oil numbers for weeks now, and he's resting this weekend to prepare for a bevy of calls about getting ready for winter. His smart customers have already done that. "Auto-deliveries don't have anything to worry about - we've been able to plan for them," said Mirabito, the president of Mirabito Fuel Group. The big problem for him is the customer who tries to guess the market every few weeks to buy from the cheapest dealer. That customer, Mirabito said, is the one who is going to end up paying more.

"Everyone can blame the oil companies; they can blame me; they can blame everyone. But we forecast based on past history," he said. No history, no plan. No plan, no extra supply, and no cheap oil in the tanks if the weather turns suddenly cold.

Don't be mistaken - he can get the oil. But how much will you pay? He doesn't want to guess about prices.

"We bring in a [lot] of refined product, but we're bidding against London and Europe," he said. "What it takes to lure it here is cash - cash is king."

continued at http://www.binghamtonpress.com/binghamtonnews/local/Sunews1.html

This is becoming a pain in the butt.

-- Martin Thompson (mthom1927@aol.com), October 01, 2000.