Remember when this gal was giving her "expert" scenario re oil? Does anyone still have a copy of that post? I wonder if perhaps she is right, just that her timing is off? Taz...who is beginning to think that perhaps oil could be the world's downfall. Or at least the US's downfall. This country all but sucks it up IV.

-- Taz (jharal2197@aol.com), September 26, 2000

Answers

Tuesday, December 14, 1999

Oil Chat

(Allaha) DD, tell us about your background. (DD) I am a top problem solver/facilitator in the oil/gas industry so have a broader picture than most in my industry. Have been working with some large independents (none of the 'public' companies will admit or do much) that are doing what they can to ensure as large an output as they can. (Ryker) How's things in the oil industry? (DD) Actually I am working on a job that is geared to propane, so it feels good to be doing things that will actually aid these problems. I am in Corpus Christi right now. None of the work I am doing is close enough to my home to help us out, but it will aid some. (Ryker) I've heard conflicting reports on oil supply. One person says there's a 6 month supply stored up in US. Other reports I've heard say about 30 days. Which is right? (DD) Neither. The 'strategic petroleum reserve' is a bit of a myth. It is very poor grade and the ability to pump it out and then refine it is very limited. There is about a 3 1/4 day supply of refined product available in the system in normal times. (Hylands) Since the SPR is stored in caverns, I would suspect contamination problems. (Ryker) So, the claim of 6 month supply stored up is WAY off base? (DD) Well, it is MAYBE 6 months of very limited basic usage, but it would take a couple of years to get it out, transport, refine, etc. so it is basically a myth. We have deep problems some of which are not fixable - period (Ryker) The reserve is not for public use, just for military, power plants, and distribution of essential goods? (DD) Generally but even that would be improbable at best. After January, public use - even rationed - is out of the question given the short supply. (Hylands) That would spiral into an economic collapse so fast it wouldn't be funny. (Ryker) I know... Think we're headed for that anyway... (DD) I see absolutely no way that economy will not fall very flat on its face. Remember, that at the very worst in the 70's "oil crisis" we were dealing with a 7% reduction in availability. I will be jumping up and down if my industry can supply 45% of today's refined product, (and remember that is only about 40% at best of our daily usage at present) (jcollins) How would this affect the local production of oil? Booming times for local crude? (DD) Local crude is in deep trouble, problems down hole not possible to fix, then have to get to refineries (which are band-aided to pieces as it is) then distribution etc. But some of the biggest problems are that we have few 1 for 1 replacement chips. So we have to re-blueprint DAB's etc. and that takes many long months most times (Ryker) And chip plants are overseas which involves other problems (y2kworried) So, it sounds like it will take a long time to get oil production back. (DD) That's right. There are no quick fixes for lots of things (Hylands) If it takes more than a few weeks to get it back, I don't think it's going to happen at all (DD) Lots of power companies are stocking 2 to 4 weeks of fuel so we don't expect most problems to become critical until 3rd week of January. For the first time in my life I find myself agreeing with the Dept of Defense. They are figuring contingencies on 30% availability of today's supply of oil and gas. (DD) People for the most part are so terrified of it crashing that they will and are doing lots in hopes they can keep it afloat etc. Remember that half of all American households are invested in the stock market or commodities and most of them are hip deep in debt to boot. Amazing the number who have taken out home equity loans and used all or part to invest in the market. Scary (GregCaton) I have been getting reports this week about likely disruptions in oil supply, mostly foreign. I got a call this morning from a good friendin San Antonio who has a business associate (retired full-bird colonel from Navy) who has been overseas recently and confirms that very little remediation is being done where it needs to be in oil. (DD) Well, foreign has big troubles but not much worse than our own, I am sorry to say (TymeNTide) My company in Alabama has about 1000 employees, in my case. not more than 10 compliant computers in the entire biz..... still "working on it"..... (DD) sounds about right from what I am getting from buddies who are still overseas (most of which have come on home already). The best we can figure is 26% to 34% of today's availability, sorry wish it was better news. If oil production is over 40% I will be dancing in the street. I am looking for a minimum 60% drop in availability. Anyone want to hear a true story? (Hylands) Sure, DD1 (DD) The 3rd week of July last year Mobil Oil got their 'analysis' for remediation. It was $460 Million + and over 3 1/2 years. They came back 2 weeks later and asked for a new analysis with differing base criteria. About 6 weeks later they did a 'merger' with Exxon, remember? 11 majors have since done similar things and the number of filings to reorganize into limited liability companies and partnerships is amazing. The majors are joining and the front companies will fold under and the back up companies will reestablish when they can. Why would an industry let itself start the big problems now when they can cash in for however many months they can? Like Exxon front, Mobil back etc. The back up companies are taking the cash and will start again under new names when they can. (GregCaton) Is this to avoid the effects of litigation? Distinguish between front and back companies. (Dean--DuhMoyn) Do they think deflation will cause all prices to drop, so a long is a big gamble? (DD) To take a "long" you have to figure there will be enough to go around somehow. This move is for litigation and the surety that they will fail on supply contracts. Remember they have had experience at being made the "bad-guy" to the American public. They learned well. ( (DD) Supply has deep problems. Our refineries are some of the oldest and nastiest there are and we have been unable to build new ones in this country for many years now. They are band-aided to the max now. Remediation for most is next to impossible. It is MUCH cheaper to build new when they can. (GregCaton) Yes, DD, but you are assuming that the laws of supply and demand will go out the window (DD) Nope, supply and demand are basic but when the supply falls so far below even the minimal demand, people will get very angry. We had this situation in the past. (Hylands) So, does the govt know this, or are the oil companies lying to them? (DD) Read the Senate 100 day Y2K report, go to the utilities section. http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001eAu and look at the part about oil/gas, and pay close attention to how they got their numbers (GregCaton) Explain. (DD) 8000+ letters sent to producers and only got back 450+ answers. Not many, so they just decided to use the 66 companies that they saw as most major and still their scenarios are a bit daunting. They tried to put a good face on it even then. (GregCaton) When will the problem get out of control? (DD) Expecting things to get sticky big time around the 3rd week of January. (GregCaton) Is there a probability curve here? Or are you speaking with surety? (DD) I have spent a good bit of time for the last 10 years gathering solid date, good math from my industry where possible. I like good numbers and want them to be verifiable in at least 2 ways; 3 is better. I would say this is real. The best I can come up with is 26 to 34% of current supply, optimistically 46 %(GregCaton) Is there anyone here who doesn't believe that if we had 60% drop in oil for 30 days, that we wouldn't be (a la Howard Ruff) at 2,000 Dow in 2000 ? (Hylands) If it lasts for 30 days, it's all over (Ryker`) Greg, if we have a 60% drop in oil for 30 days, the stock market won't be around any more... (GregCaton) it will be around. Dormant, perhaps. Even under 2,000 points... but still around (DD1stLight) I am trying to be optimistic, am hoping for 40% availability of today's supplies being available (underpaid) Loss of oil flow - candling of pipelines - problems with tankers/ports - VERRRRY SERIOUS - End of economy PERIOD. (Tulladew) Gasoline might be expensive, even if rationed (DD) Rationed assumes there will be enough for basic services with some left over. These amounts are not sufficient for basic services etc. I expect nationalization at the least (DD) Can anyone here think of a single industry that is not wholly or secondarily reliant upon the oil/gas industry? Refineries take several years to build even at critical speed, pipelines the same, wells take a while too etc. (GregCaton) How long have you held these convictions, as to percentages, time line, etc ? (DD1stLight) Greg, the first time I jumped up and down in a corporate board room about Y2K was in 1976. I started gathering serious data about 8 years ago as I saw little being done still about my industry specifically (GregCaton) What caused you to be so concerned in 76 ? (DD) I needed to input 1800's info into the computers and could not. (DD) My industry pays people who own the land/mineral interests according to the % the own so is very important, also for getting the rights by lease to explore for oil/gas etc. Deeds and court suits from the 1800's are many times still in effect today. (Ryker`) Can I try to summarize to see if I got all this? You're saying that there may be a 60% drop in oil supply that will become evident about the 3rd week of January. And this drop may last years due to Y2K computer problems at everything from oil wells to refineries? (DD1stLight) Yes. Add to that problems when/if a system that is down- hole noncompliant. A system that is physically located several hundred or thousand feet below the surface and is totally not accessible, and therefore cannot easily be fixed. (GregCaton) Were they really that stupid ???? (DD) give him a cigar, yes. Redrill IF you can, but it is not possible to redrill many and get production again. (Hylands) Greg, some of the natural gas wells up here in Alberta are dug 20,000 feet down (GregCaton) DD1 ) And these deep wells do NOT have manual overrides? (DD) not stupid, maybe ignorant - scariest thing I am seeing is some of the simplified assumptions that so many are making in remediation analysis (Ryker`) It comes down to short term profits. If they can drill the well and start making money immediately, that's all they were worried about... Didn't want to spend time to redesign systems to make them compliant for an event that was years in the future... (y2kworried) The implications are staggering, our whole economy is based on automobile and truck transportation, and planes, and ships, and locomotives (GregCaton) How many in upper management fully grasp / accept what you are now saying ? (DD1stLight) Some. Most are like most people. They really do not want to look at the possibilities. Can't say I blame them. It's not like one guy knows the ins and outs of how his product is drilled, pumped, refined, distributed, etc. (GregCaton) Is there the slightest doubt in your mind that this all equates to a depression more serious than the 30's ? (DD) NONE.

http://www.oasistv.com/news/121499-story-2.asp

-- (link@link.link), September 26, 2000.

I can't believe that the Tinfoil stooges are STILL beating the drum about Y2K...

-- Y2K Pro (y2kpro1@hotmail.com), September 26, 2000.

"(DD) sounds about right from what I am getting from buddies who are still overseas (most of which have come on home already). The best we can figure is 26% to 34% of today's availability, sorry wish it was better news. If oil production is over 40% I will be dancing in the street. I am looking for a minimum 60% drop in availability."

Last time I saw her, she was still dancing in the streets. That's how she's making a living these days.

-- Passerby (on@the.streets), September 26, 2000.

It seems to me that she was exposed as a fraud sometime last year. The folks she said she worked for/with never heard of her [or anyone that might remotely resemble an IRL semblance of what she claimed to be doing.] I'm too lazy to look for links on that, so for now, it's just my memory and my personal opinion, both of which are worth about as much as the entrance fee to this forum.

-- Anita (Anita_S3@hotmail.com), September 26, 2000.

If I had to bet I would have to say that this is all baloney.

However the current economic domino effect on the supply side as explored must be chilling for those who dream of prosperity to come.

-- Will (righthere@home.now), September 27, 2000.

LOLOLOL Taz, you and Paula Gordon hang in there, ya hear? Better fuel up the Y2K Doomobile before the gas shortages....

-- FactFinder (FactFinder@bzn.com), September 28, 2000.