Dear Professor, My name is Jin-Woo Chung and I am a sophmore at Yale. I had a question about the stock market and was hoping that you might have an answer. I am trying to figure out what returns the stock market historically has in a period of interest rate hikes. Do you have a prediction on what returns the market might have by the next quarter? Should I just look at past values and use that as my basis for the future? I was in Professor Nordhaus's economics class last year, and I regularly read your articles online. I would appreciate any help that you sould be able to give me. Thank you for your time, Jin-Woo

-- Jin-Woo Chung (jin-woo.chung@yale.edu), September 01, 2000