We're down to the wire -- who do you think is most likely to win? I'm assuming that the show has been heavily edited, and that the editing is the key to figuring out who's going to win. It's been edited to tell a story; these folks aren't real people so much as characters. I don't think Kelly can win because she's been shown to be so unlikeable. They could have easily edited out some of that whinging last episode. Sue is kind of blunt and abrasive, but I wouldn't say she's irredeemable -- if Kelly really stabs her in the back, we could wind up being somewhat sympathetic to Sue if she prevails. Sean is just too dumb and annoying. Rich ... well, he's growing on me. I hate to say it, but he's growing on me.

One reason I really think the show has been deceptively edited is the Greg and Colleen thing -- Colleen and others have completed denied that there was even so much as a kiss while they were on the island (although Gretchen says Greg and Colleen are now an item). Colleen is supposedly a virgin, in fact, and the editing and the previews made her look like she was getting it on with jungle boy. I think they can tell any story they want here.

-- Anonymous, August 15, 2000

Answers

I am starting to think that Rich may pull it off, if he is not given the boot in the next council. If susan and kelly can't work together to get rid of him soon (as they have talked about), I think it will come down to Rich and Rudy. Then, what you talked about in your journal today comes into play. If in actuality Rudy was a completely offensive jerk, then the jury will pick Rich. It makes me wonder if Rich had this in mind when he was talking to Rudy about working together so only the two of them are left standing (I think it was in the episode from two weeks ago).

I was a Colleen fan, now that she is gone, I'm trying to figure out who it would irritate me the least to see win...

-- Anonymous, August 15, 2000

I think it will be Susan, with Rudy finishing second. I don't think CBS can let someone as non-PC as Rudy actually win. Rich and Sean will round out the final four.

-- Anonymous, August 15, 2000

I thinbk Rudy is going to win. I believed the Navy Seal website that sent a congrats out to it's armed forces brother back during the first week CBS started airing the show.

I also don't think CBS has too much control over the results of the contest other than what types of challenges are presented. CBS is only showing edited clips, and are not writing the script.

-- Anonymous, August 15, 2000

I'm rooting for Rich. I think he deserves to win. He really has been working hard for that pot-o-gold... There for a while I was thinking he was such a weasel... but I think he really does have a good attitude. Hey, it's nothing personal... It's just a game... and then, there's the money too. (I believe that he is competative, and would probably give it a pretty good shot even without the money.) I'm glad to hear that he might not be half as bad as CBS made him look. I think we could have all done with out the naked display. I find Susan objectionable. She has a nasty attitude, and it seems like she makes it personal when she votes someone off,which isn't necessary... . I don't find her a strong person... Just icky. I think Rudy deserves strong marks for just keeping his head down, and keeping going... and going and going, even if he does get a little grumpy. His old bones have got to ache a little more than those young people. He's stuck on this island with a bunch of folks that he probably doesn't have a lot in common with. As far as mind games go, that makes it a lot tougher. *Kelly's ok... I think that she's tired of this game... it's worn on her. It was fun at first, but now it's work and a bummer because it's serious, and she's about had enough of that. She doesn't deserve to win, because she's given up. No she hasn't said she's given up, but she has. She's not playing the game very well anymore. She's not playing nice-nice like she should to the cameras, or the other players... she's just putting one foot in front of the other. Sean, -He's a human puppy. Lights are on... but.... He doesn't need the money, and he'll have his shot at what's important to him... that money can't buy... EGO TRIP. I think I'll probably miss this show when it's over. I can hardly wait to see who wins... It's almost like Chrismas... cept I don't get anything.

-- Anonymous, August 15, 2000

ya know, someone was saying there is a 5% rule that a person could match up with at least 5% percent of the human population (which i think only works with very ordinary people). so, out of twenty people, you should be able to pick one mate...ok,there were 16, not 20, close enough. go ahead, pick someone, i dare you. i think sue will win, because im not sure there is anyone who really hates her.

-- Anonymous, August 15, 2000

Wait, did you just tell me I have to marry one of these people? Eesh. To be fair, I think that was 5% of all members of the opposite sex, assuming one is heterosexual, or the same sex, assuming one is not. So we're only looking at eight people here, which makes it difficult.

For this exercise, I'm just going to pretend I'm bisexual, okay? I think I could live with Jenna. She talks a lot, I talk a lot, we'd drive each other crazy, but I think I could live with her. If I absolutely, gun to my head, had to pick one of the men, I'd have to pick Richard. Since he's gay, you'll just have to blow my brains out, because I'll be damned if I'll have anything to do with those other guys. (Oh, I'd probably sleep with Gervase or Greg. But that's it.)

-- Anonymous, August 15, 2000

If I were to marry someone on Survivor? Jeff Probst. No question. He's all glossy and hollow, which I think would work really well for me. As long as I supplied him with hairspray and took him shopping at Banana Republic once a week, we'd be blissfully happy together.

I heard the thing about Rudy getting a congrats from the veteran's association too, but I also thought Greg was going to win because he didn't give any interviews, that Gretchen was going to win because Ramona screwed up on a talk show, that Gervase was going to win because of the website "screwup"...

Right now, if the veteran's thing doesn't pan out, I still think it'll be Rudy. Rich and Rudy will be the final two, and the castaway "jury pool" is going to go for the senior citizen who stuck it out.

However...I heard that Rich is now being represented by the William Morris agency, which is one of the best agencies around, and that all the other castaways have representation which isn't as glitzy. If that's the case, it could be because Rich will soon be known as "the winner of Survivor," and will be much more in demand.

Hopefully, my Jeff will be on Survivor II, and I'll get to see him wear more safari gear out in the outback.

-- Anonymous, August 15, 2000

You're in luck, Patrick -- People Magazine (or some fine publication like that) reports that Probst will indeed be back for Survivor II. It's going to be in the outback, though, so I'm predicting far less bikini and rippling manly chest muscle time than we got in this version. Not that Probst showed a lot of rippling muscles (for which I am grateful, amen -- he's all yours, Patrick).

-- Anonymous, August 15, 2000

Perhaps Rich is known as "the winner of Survivor", even if he doesn't win, because he is the most memorable, the one that people talk about the most, etc.? I know that sometimes Joel and Dirk, and even others on the show blend together a little, and I've been watching since the beginning. I bet even casual viewers remember Rich, and thus he is a good bet to have some sort of show business career, guest spots on sitcoms, that sort of thing.

Then again, I'm looking for any explanation of why Rich won't win!

-- Anonymous, August 15, 2000

Well, Rich might have been voted off two weeks ago had it not been for his winning immunity. We could very well see him voted off tonight, by Susan, Sean, and Kelly, for example. Weren't Susan and Kelly ready to vote against him two weeks ago? All it would take is for Sean to vote the same way.

-- Anonymous, August 15, 2000

Uh, or maybe tomorrow night... ;-)

-- Anonymous, August 16, 2000

Who would I marry? Taking the lead of another poster and assuming for the moment that I'm bisexual, I'd probably find Gretchen most compatible/tolerable. Of course, whoever ultimately wins the million dollars would immediately go to the top of the list!

-- Anonymous, August 16, 2000

Gervase, the stud.

-- Anonymous, August 16, 2000

Man, even with all the fighting that was the most boring episode ever. I'm probably alone here, but I wound up liking them all a little better, except for Rudy. Even with all the fighting and stuff, I felt sorry for everybody. I even felt sorry for Rudy, but he's still a bigoted old bully.

-- Anonymous, August 17, 2000

It seemed like earlier in the series, the challenge was a lot more about finding food, water, setting up camp, that sort of thing. Based on tonight's episode, the challenge now is to not die of boredom, and to not let the others get to you.

So, I was under the impression that the last show features two challenges, which will eliminate two people, and then the final vote by the jury. But tonight, they made it sound like there are two tribal councils and then the final vote. Does anyone know which it is?

If there were challenges, I would think Rudy would go first. He's only won one challenge, and that was only with help from the sidelines. I have to admit, he was cracking me up tonight when, at every question, he just looked in the camera and said, "I don't know." I was going to say that Rudy is not wise to put so much trust in Rich, but then again, he's in the final four, so who am I to judge?

It was good to see Sue and Kelly discuss their argument like rational human beings in the end.

-- Anonymous, August 17, 2000

You know, I've been reading over at survivorsucks.com, and talking with people who are big fans of the show, and the consensus still seems to be that the "alliance" is an Evil Thing. I don't agree at all.

I think that the alliance is, at its core, an example of teamwork actually working. The four original alliance members, who all agreed to stick together no matter what (defections by Kelly in the past couple of episodes notwithstanding) are the Final Four. To me, that's pretty telling.

Say what you will about their motivations, levels of greed, or personalities. Rich, Rudy, and Susan all agreed that they would stick by one another until they reached the Final Four, and, lo and behold, they reached the Final Four!

Kelly has only lasted this long by winning two immunity challenges.

If people in Pagong had agreed to stick by one another, it would have been a much more interesting contest. Instead, they decided not to play the game but to sit back and enjoy themselves, each on his or her own. And got picked off, one by one.

I admire the Tagi people who chose to make allies early on, and not to waver on those alliances no matter what. I have the feeling that if the people who did the very same thing were Gervase, Colleen, Jenna and Greg, nobody would be calling them backstabbers or saying they weren't playing in the spirit of the game.

I know this is off-topic, but I just got through reading a bunch of posts on survivorsucks, where the (seemingly illiterate) crowd did nothing but harp on the fact that Richard is fat and gay, Rudy is old and wrinkled, Susan isn't a model and has a Wisonsin accent, and Kelly is kind of annoying. Nobody seems to have caught onto the fact that all four (okay, three), no matter what else they are, were smart and stuck to their guns.

I'm way too involved in this show.

And I still want to marry Jeff Probst.

-- Anonymous, August 17, 2000

Indeed, I also liked everyone a lot better this time, even though I miss Colleen like I lost my best friend or something. :)

I got to liking Kelly enough to even cheer for her when she won the immunity challenge. Bitchy though she is, at least she has a little more intelligence than Sean. (I must admit that Sean had to have been edited to look as dumb as possible with that "I think I'm going to win it. I think I'll win the million," right before he was unanimously voted off.)

Rudy is fuckin' hilarious! I was about to die by the time he said "I don't know" for the third time. Silly, silly guy.

-- Anonymous, August 17, 2000

I agree with Patrick, and even take it a step further. Those who refused to join alliances were stupid, and didn't deserve to win.

Next one off is a no brainer; Kelly, unless she manages to win immunity yet again.

-- Anonymous, August 17, 2000

Yeah, my opinion of Richard completely swung around last night. Look at it this way: he's not doing anything the others on his team aren't doing, but he's the only one who is managing to remain civil and polite. Yes, he's doing so in a manipulative way, but the others are trying to be manipulative, too -- the difference is that they can't keep their nastiness at bay long enough to finish the time on the island and go home.

I was really struck last night by his comment about not caring about these sixteen people and just wanting to go home to the people he does care about. I guess that might have sounded heartless, but then I thought about Richard's position. This island thing hasn't been easy for him.

A lot of fuss has been made about how well Rudy has adapted to living with these people who are so totally different than he is -- screw that, Rudy hasn't adapted at all. His comment to Richard at tribal council was evidence of that; he didn't need to be that blunt. (I'm tired of hearing about his bluntness as a virtue. Sometimes being blunt is the same thing as being an asshole.) It was rude and mean, and the look on Richard's face suddenly made me really uncomfortable with the way the show has been edited to make Rich a villain. It cannot possibly have been easy for a man who is educated and liberal minded, and who is used to being surrounded by like minded people, to live for 39 days being buddies with a guy who calls him a fat queer. Let's give Rich a little credit for not having slugged the old bastard by this time.

And I don't want to hear that Rudy is old school and that you can't expect more from a 72 year old Navy veteran. My dad is only a little younger than Rudy and is also retired military, and I know that in his day he was just as crusty and blunt and intolerant as Rudy. But the most amazing thing happened; he grew up. Rudy is entitled to his beliefs, but I have no respect for someone who can't hold it together long enough to treat a fellow human being like ... well, like a fellow human being. Fuck Rudy.

In other news, I hated Kelly last week. This week she seemed like the second most mature person in the bunch, after Richard. And Sue isn't as dumb as the people at Survivor Sucks would make her out to be. Sean, well, I can't help him. Sorry, dummy.

-- Anonymous, August 17, 2000

Kim: Mark Burnett originally said that the final four would be whittled down to two by a series of challenges. Based on the previews and interviews with the people remaining, Mark Burnett is a big fat liar, and there will be three tribal councils next week.

-- Anonymous, August 17, 2000

I think Susan will pull it off. If they have two more votes, Kelley will be first to go, and then Susan and Rudy will vote off Richard.

I think Richard has overplayed his hand a bit, and is sure to lose the final vote if he lasts that long.

-- Anonymous, August 17, 2000

I still hope Susan wins, i love her. Although it would be poetic justice for Kelly to win.

I do NOT want Rich to win. And as much as Rudy makes me laugh, i have to agree he's an ass and i don't really want him to win either. "I'll shake his hand and then i hope to never see him again"??? Jesus.

Though, put a "me too" in for the hilarity of hearing Rudy say "I don't know" to every single question. I thought i was going to pee the couch.

Susan! Susan! Susan! (please?)

Patrick, you can't marry Jeff. See, i'm still hoping that before the show ends, one of the remaining few will suddenly go insane and kill him right there on the beach. "It's time for YOU to go!" *stab stab stab*

Ahem. Sorry. Long, rough couple of weeks over here. As you were.

-- Anonymous, August 17, 2000

Oh, by the way, regarding Sean... I quoted something in my journal last night before i saw him voted off. It comes from the Entertainment Weekly site (which has lots of Survivor stuff, including more on the Colleen saga) and i thought it summed up Sean superbly:

"You know how four out of five doctors are always recommending some prudent, sensible course of action? Well, now we know the identity of that clueless fifth doctor: Sean."

Heeheehee.

-- Anonymous, August 17, 2000

Sean apparently comes from a long line of clueless kin. Did you see the show that his dad was on? Everyone was asking him about current events/news and he knew absofuckinglutely nothing. He sounded like Rudy on last night's challenge, "I dunno".

-- Anonymous, August 17, 2000

I don't know about your TV, but at the end of the show, in the teasers for next week, mine said, "3 Tribal Councils." My interpretation of those words is that there will be three tribal councils. ;-)

I think we all need to keep in mind:
It's all in the editing

If you think about it, the survivors probably say a lot of self-contradictory things over the days between shows. For example, they could waffle on who they're going to vote for. The producers can then take their pick when they show a clip of the person saying who they're going to vote for. They can make it look any way they want to.

I think the anti-Rich sentiment from a few shows back was mostly manufactured by the producers. It just made for a good show for them to show everybody saying they were going to vote for Rich and then having him get immunity. It just hasn't panned out that way.

With all that said I'm just laughing my head off at Sean's clips from last night's show. "I'm going to win this thing." "No more mister nice guy." "I'm going to have to get dirty; do what it takes to win."

I'm thinking, "What? What Sean? What is your freaking plan?"

Poor Sean. Would you let him be your neurologist?

At this point the finishing order looks to be Kelly, Sue, Rudy, Rich. Immunity could change that though.

-- Anonymous, August 17, 2000

I forgot to say that I think Kelly will get immunity in the first vote. A spoiler is behind the reason I think that, but since it's not much of a spoiler and there's a fifty percent chance it's false, I'll share it with you: there is supposed to be a tie at some point. Mark Burnett said there was one, and so did Gervase, and maybe Gretchen. Jeff Probst said there were no ties, though, so who the hell knows. But if there is a tie, it has to be in the next vote, because it's the last chance. (Once it's down to three people and one has immunity, there can't be a tie.)

The only way I could really see a tie happening next time is if Kelly has immunity. Otherwise I think they'd all vote for her. But I could see it splitting up among the others if they can't vote for Kelly.

Did anyone else here that both Gervase and Dirk allegedly slipped yesterday and said, "I'm happy for HIM," when asked about the winner? The rumor is that all booted castaway interviews were immediately cancelled until the last show airs. I think it's a set up. Both slipping on the same day after not slipping for weeks? Come on.

-- Anonymous, August 17, 2000

If Kelly wins immunity a tie could very well transpire. Kelly could declare she's going to vote for Rich, and Sue could seize the opportunity. But what happens when there's a tie? I've heard they hold another vote, but what if everybody sticks to their guns?

-- Anonymous, August 17, 2000

I've heard two different things on that issue, two: first, they just keep casting ballots until someone changes. The other was that the person with the most previous votes against them gets the boot.

-- Anonymous, August 17, 2000

This isn't who I want to win, but who I think does win: Rudy.

I just finished the US magazine article about the remaining survivors, and in the page about Rudy, they interviewed a friend, who revealed the shocking news that Rudy really likes beer. But then the guy said something else - that after the show, he asked Rudy for Rudy's autograph - preferably on a blank cheque - it is a lame joke, but an old one, usually reserved for lottery winners. I think he won the million dollars - because all of the runner up money is so lame - far to lame to make jokes about giving it away.

-- Anonymous, August 17, 2000

The runner up gets $100,000. I'd settle for that. I don't know 3rd and 4th, but I'd guess they're around $50k. Okay, not riches, but not bad for a few weeks' work.

-- Anonymous, August 17, 2000

Don't forget though, Dave, that those figures are pre tax. So, about half of that goes to taxes. Still good money, but not 'give me money, lottery winner' type money.

-- Anonymous, August 17, 2000

The jury is made up of people who can't stand Richard. I say he's doomed. He'll no doubt understand though, because of his mastery of "interpersonal dynamics".

-- Anonymous, August 17, 2000

Don't forget though, Dave, that those figures are pre tax. So, about half of that goes to taxes. Still good money, but not 'give me money, lottery winner' type money.

I don't know about that. I once won $1,000 for matching 5 numbers in the Megabucks lottery in Maine (one more number, I'd've won $8 million, damnit), and people came out of the woodwork with their hands out.

-- Anonymous, August 17, 2000

you know that "other" show would be more interesting if something like this had gone on

------- LONDON (Reuters) - Britain's "most hated man" was in hiding on Friday after his fellow "Big Brother" television game show contestants finally cottoned on to his scheming ways and shamed him in front of the nation.

"Nasty Nick" Bateman, dubbed a "Machiavellian lying rat" by the British media for his backstabbing, manipulative tactics, was evicted from the fly-on-the-wall reality show by the program's makers Channel Four on Thursday.

Before he left, his housemates confronted him with evidence showing that he had been trying to manipulate the show's nomination process.

Channel Four are now keeping him at an undisclosed location amid concerns for his safety.

"Psychological counseling is being made available to him if he wants it," a Big Brother spokeswoman told Reuters. "I would imagine he will remain out of reach for a while."

"Every participant knew what the issues would be when they came out (of the house). He was psychologically screened and deemed fit," she said. "He is definitely not a plant."

Not one British newspaper was sympathetic to the 32-year-old stockbroker, who even lied that his first love was killed in a car crash to win sympathy and further his chances of winning the $104,000 prize.

"Nasty Nicked!" the broadsheet Independent crowed on Friday. Both the Daily Telegraph and the Guardian slammed his "double-dealing".

Nick, who broke down in tears when he was confronted by his housemates, was escorted away from the house by security guards and whisked away to a secret location.

-- Anonymous, August 19, 2000