Skeptics scoff at assurances, step up preparations for Y2K
By ALLAN TURNER
Copyright 1999 Houston Chronicle

With each tick of the clock, Jean Staffen hears the drumbeat of doom.

When the new year dawns, she fears, millions of computers -- unable to differentiate between "2000" and "1900" -- will begin to go haywire. With their failure, the world's financial, telecommunications and energy systems will crumble.

It's a frightening scenario, says Staffen, a 60-year-old Austin high-tech worker.

And the fact that, conservatively, billions of dollars and centuries of work-hours have been spent taming the "millennium bug" doesn't comfort her. Nor do government and business leaders' assurances that the Y2K bug's bite will prove less than catastrophic.

"Why should we trust them on this?" Staffen said. "Lord knows they've lied in the past."

With the rapid approach of Jan. 1, the distrust of officials' wisdom, truthfulness and even motives is a noticeable subtheme as the nation struggles to cope with the incipient computer crisis.

Even as the state recently launched a massive public relations campaign to urge the complacent to prepare at least minimally for possible year 2000 disruptions, other Texans were hoarding precious metals, stockpiling food, water and ammunition or making plans to abandon the cities for the country.

Social scientists contend such actions -- especially in their most extreme forms -- carry overtones of religious zealotry and fear of technology. But at least some of those involved in preparations insist their distrust of government is well-founded. They cite Watergate, President Clinton's philandering and the FBI assault on the Branch Davidian compound at Waco.

"Official assurances aside," said Staffen, who heads a 100-member Y2K preparedness group in Austin, "there's no way to know how long this will last or how bad it will be. No one's really sure."

Roughly a score of computer Web sites -- ranging from common-sensical to shrill -- cater to the audience of Y2K skeptics.

Gary North, a Christian-oriented historian in Tyler, predicts total societal meltdown equal to the impact of 14th-century plagues that killed 25 million Europeans.

Another Web site offers tips on how to kill roving packs of famished dogs -- pets gone wild after being abandoned by their owners.

On still another, Michael S. Hyatt, best-selling author of The Millennium Bug and an occasional speaker at Houston's First Baptist Church, warns that the government and industry are purveying propaganda to divert the public's attention from the coming potential catastrophe. While downplaying the threat, he claims, they quietly pour more money into computer repair efforts, extend repair deadlines and prepare for the worst in case their efforts fail.

"Forget what they are saying," he admonishes, "and watch what they are doing."

Faced with such superheated opinion, Texas officials in their "Readiness 2000" campaign prosaically advise residents to plan for Jan. 1 as they would for a hurricane.

They should stock batteries, flashlights, battery-operated radios, first-aid kits and enough food and water for three days.

"They should go down the hurricane list and do everything, except maybe boarding their windows," said Jo Schweikhard Moss, spokeswoman for the state's Division of Emergency Management. "Make sure your car's gas tank is at least half-full. Don't withdraw more money than you normally would for a three-day weekend. Keep hard copies of important banking and insurance documents."

"We're not anticipating major problems," she said.

"Look at what we did after (Hurricane) Bret. Three of four power grids were (inoperative) in South Texas, but, even with that one, we provided service to the area. After three days, full service was restored. Most people never even knew it happened."

"I'm very confident that we're ready," said Carolyn Purcell, who, as executive director of the state's Department of Information Resources, has overseen a four-year effort to correct state computer problems. "The agencies and universities have worked diligently to make sure that everything within their ken is fixed and fit for operations in the new millennium. We don't have perfect knowledge and we may have missed some things. ... There could be some inconveniences, but we think they would be minor.

"Everyone should make a determination about how much preparation it takes to feel comfortable and arrive at their own levels. But if there's widespread hoarding, the fear of scarcity could create a self-fulfilling prophecy."

Skeptics argue that even if Texas and the nation adequately address the millennium bug, the problem's global aspects remain alarming.

To buttress their claims, they cite testimony offered by experts to the U.S. Senate's year 2000 technical problems committee.

In late July, State Department Inspector General Jacquelyn Williams-Bridgers told the committee that half of 161 countries examined had medium to high risk for telecommunications, energy and/or transportation system failures.

"These assessments," she said, "suggest that the global community is likely to experience varying degrees of Y2K-related failures in every sector, in every region and at every economic level. As such, the risk of disruption will likely extend to the international trade arena, where a breakdown in any part of the global supply chain would have a serious impact on the U.S. and world economies."

"Computer experts are saying one thing in public and another thing in private," fretted Tyrone Roderick Williams, a Houston-area business consultant who lectures on the subject. "I don't believe that everything is well under control, that there won't be any problems.

"I know most agencies are not being upfront. I think the public is not being properly informed."

In facing the unknown, Williams urges listeners to stock food, water, medicine and other essentials for at least a two-month period. Rather than relying on government and.....

snip
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/page1/357632?R637478637

------------------

-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), July 28, 2000

Answers

Skeptics argue that even if Texas and the nation adequately address the millennium bug, the problem's global aspects remain alarming.

To buttress their claims, they cite testimony offered by experts to the U.S. Senate's year 2000 technical problems committee.

In late July, State Department Inspector General Jacquelyn Williams- Bridgers told the committee that half of 161 countries examined had medium to high risk for telecommunications, energy and/or transportation system failures.

"These assessments," she said, "suggest that the global community is likely to experience varying degrees of Y2K-related failures in every sector, in every region and at every economic level. As such, the risk of disruption will likely extend to the international trade arena, where a breakdown in any part of the global supply chain would have a serious impact on the U.S. and world economies."

This is what many were worried about late about last year, after it became fairly certain that most U.S banks and most U.S. electric utilities would be ready for Y2K.

-- Just (in@time.deliveries), July 28, 2000.

History has proved North to be the genius and Charlie to be the charltan.

-- TB2K Historian (just@the.truth), July 28, 2000.

This is what many were worried about late about last year, after it became fairly certain that most U.S banks and most U.S. electric utilities would be ready for Y2K.

AND **WHO** MADE THEM WORRY??

WHY,,,IT WAS THE SAME BS ARTISTS WHO STARTED THE BALL ROLLING ABOUT BANKS, UTILITIES AND PHONES. After they had no data to support that they did what salemen do: go to the furthest point. After the "Biggies" were deemed ok, we started to hear about "all the small and mid range companies (SMEs)" who "hadn't started".

Then when it was clear the Salesmen couldn't sell UP CAME "THE THIRD WORLD".

TO THIS DAY, NONE OF THEM HAVE A RATIONAL ANSWER FOR "WHAT ABOUT ITALY???"

-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), July 28, 2000.

LINK-FOR-"HISTORIAN"

http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=003Zbb

-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), July 28, 2000.

YAAAWWWWNNN!

-- al-d. (dogs@zianet.com), July 28, 2000.

All together now.... "CPR is the foam that drops from a rabid dog's mouth"

-- (Comes@Around.InHere), July 28, 2000.

No, as much as it makes me want to puke, I actually have to concede that CPR brings up an excellent point: It did not matter whether time, effort and money was spent or not, the result was the same: NO PROBLEM! Italy is a good example: no strain, no pain.

-- WD-40 (wd40@squeak.not), July 28, 2000.

This is what many were worried about late last year, after it became fairly certain that most U.S banks and most U.S. electric utilities would be ready for Y2K.

AND **WHO** MADE THEM WORRY??

WHY,,,IT WAS THE SAME BS ARTISTS WHO STARTED THE BALL ROLLING ABOUT BANKS, UTILITIES AND PHONES. After they had no data to support that they did what salemen do: go to the furthest point. After the "Biggies" were deemed ok, we started to hear about "all the small and mid range companies (SMEs)" who "hadn't started".

Then when it was clear the Salesmen couldn't sell UP CAME "THE THIRD WORLD".

That's CPR's version of it. Here's what the Senate Y2K committee said about these subjects in September, 1999.

http://www.senate.gov/~y2k/documents/100dayrpt/exec_sum_100days.pdf

http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001Rwk

SNIP

While optimism pervades the domestic Y2K outlook, uncertainty with regard to Y2K's impact dictates that preparation is prudent. Individuals and companies must take charge of their own situation by examining the Y2K readiness of the utilities and services that they depend on, and by preparing accordingly.

SNIP

While the Committee has become increasingly confident about U.S. Y2K preparedness, it has become increasingly concerned about international Y2K preparedness. Some of our important trading partners are months behind in addressing the Y2K problem and are not likely to avoid significant disruptions. These disruptions could have adverse economic effects here at home and, in some developing countries, result in requests for humanitarian assistance.

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS

Sectors critical to the safety and well being of Americans, as well as to the economy, have made significant progress in the last eight months; concerns remain in health care, local governments, small business, and education.

Most physicians' offices, many innercity and small rural hospitals, and numerous nursing homes have not fully addressed the Y2K problem. In general, larger firms have grasped how a Y2K failure could severely impact their businesses and are taking steps to remedy the problem. Unfortunately, nearly half of small and medium sized businesses across all sectors are taking a wait and see approach to Y2K.

SNIP

The international Y2K picture is more disturbing. The Y2K preparations in many countries of economic and strategic importance to the U.S. are inadequate. Of greatest concern are Russia, China, Italy, and several oil producing countries. The Y2K problem has highlighted the economic interdependence of nations. A significant potential exists for the Y2K induced problems of other nations to wash up on our shores whether in the form of recession, lost jobs, or requests for international assistance.

SNIP

In general, large companies with greater resources have dealt well with the Y2K problem. Very small businesses may survive using manual processes until Y2K problems are remediated. However, many small and medium sized businesses are extremely unprepared for Y2K disruptions. One survey shows that 28% of small businesses do not plan to take any action.

The heavily regulated insurance, investment services, and banking industries are farthest ahead in their efforts; health care, oil, education, agriculture, farming, food processing, and the construction industries are lagging behind.

SNIP

The Committee is greatly concerned about the international Y2K picture. Several countries of strategic and economic importance to the U.S. are severely behind in Y2K remediation efforts. Regions of the world of most concern to the Committee are Eastern Europe, Africa, and parts of Asia and South America. When considering strategic and economic factors, and the status of Y2K remediation efforts within specific countries, the Committee's greatest concerns lie with China, Russia, Italy, and several of the countries from which the U.S. imports oil.

Severe long and short term disruptions to supply chains are likely to occur. Such disruptions may cause a low to moderate downturn in the economy, particularly in those industries that depend on foreign suppliers. In addition, there may be a request for humanitarian relief from developing countries that have not addressed the Y2K problem.

SNIP

TO THIS DAY, NONE OF THEM HAVE A RATIONAL ANSWER FOR "WHAT ABOUT ITALY???"

"The Question of Italy: An Analysis" by Peter de Jager

http://www.year2000.com/y2kitaly.html

"Experts Puzzled by Scarcity of Y2K Failures"

http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=002HWr

"Retrospective on the Magnitude of the Problem"

http://www.y2k.gov/docs/LASTREP3.htm

SNIP Why weren't there more Y2K-related problems abroad, especially in less-developed nations?

Some of those who have discounted, after the fact, the significance of the Y2K threat point to the relative lack of major disruptions abroad as evidence of how exaggerated the problem was. How did countries that appeared to have spent so little, and were thought to be relatively unprepared, emerge unscathed?

A number of factors created the mismatch between perception about the Y2K readiness of foreign countries and the actual outcome. Chief among them was the difficulty in obtaining accurate status reports internationally on a fast moving issue such as Y2K. Information three months old was out of date, and much of the international information reported was second hand and anecdotal. But, in many cases, this was the best information available until countries began to report more publicly on their Y2K work. Without more current, detailed reports, people often relied on such older information and were then surprised when it was overtaken by subsequent progress. A report about risks from April or June 1999 was assumed to still be operative in December.

A related problem was the stereotype of countries doing nothing to prepare for Y2K. While this was probably true for three- quarters of the countries in the world in early 1998, by mid-1999 virtually every country had a Y2K program in place and was devoting a high level of attention to the problem. In many cases, the fact that some countries may have spent the bulk of their funds in a concentrated effort the last six to nine months of 1999 was largely ignored. For some commentators, therefore, it has been easier to suggest that the problem was overstated rather than to consider the possibility that perceptions before the rollover were inaccurate.

Additionally, outside of the world's largest users of information technology B countries like the United States, Canada, Japan, and the United Kingdom -- the reliance upon IT drops off quickly. In many of these less IT-dependent countries, other factors also made for an easier transition into the Year 2000. Fixes in these countries were frequently more straightforward than in the United States since the technology being used was more likely to be "off the shelf," and not customized. Also, unlike the United States, countries such as Spain and Italy that had moved into IT more recently were not saddled with old legacy systems that were built with antiquated, customized code by people who had long since retired.

Countries starting later also had the benefit of lessons learned by those who had been working on Y2K for several years. The sharing of technical information about problems, products, fixes and testing techniques that was encouraged by international organizations and the Council paid enormous dividends. Elevators provide a good example. In 1998, everyone was testing to see if elevator-specific systems had a Y2K problem. Once it became clear that they did not, no one else had to spend time and money pursuing the issue. Similar experiences took place in industries such as banking, finance, telecommunications, air traffic and electric power where information was being exchanged and shared globally in a way never seen before. And in many industries, large multi-national companies actually worked directly with their local counterparts and host countries to fix basic systems.

 

Finally, technology itself helped countries that had gotten a late start on Y2K. One the reasons those that started late spent less on their Year 2000 efforts was that the technology to fix the problem improved dramatically. By 1999, automated tools could fix millions of lines of code quickly and at a dramatically lower cost than was possible just two years earlier. This technology helped late-starting countries to fix the problem quickly - and more cheaply.

SNIP

-- The other sides (of@the.story), July 30, 2000.

AH YES,,,,,,,,,,,,,THAT PARAGON OF "UP TO DATE...........HIGH TECHNOLOGY...........THE U.S. CONGRESS"!!!!

In March of last year, the Senate report broke the fever of Y2k Hysterics but since then that report and the subsequent ones in Fall, 1999 are quoted endlessly as SOME SORT OF "PROOOOOOOOOOF" WHEN IN FACT, THE SAME PEOPLE QUOTING THEM WOULD REJECT THE FIRST THING FROM CONGRESS OR A JOHN KOSKINEN AS "SPIN" IF IT WAS NOT PART OF THE FREAKING SALES PITCH.

-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), July 31, 2000.

--------------RE: THIS "THOUGHT"...........***SPLAIN ITALY FOR ALL OF US****----------TAKE THIS "SPIN" ELSEWHERE:

Finally, technology itself helped countries that had gotten a late start on Y2K. One the reasons those that started late spent less on their Year 2000 efforts was that the technology to fix the problem improved dramatically. By 1999, automated tools could fix millions of lines of code quickly and at a dramatically lower cost than was possible just two years earlier. This technology helped late-starting countries to fix the problem quickly - and more cheaply. SUPPOSEDLY, ITALY "COULDN'T BE FIXED" BECAUSE IT 'STARTED TOO LATE'. AND....that 'thought' is CONTRA-DOOM ZOMBIE "TRUTH" BEFORE 1/1/2000 WHILE THE FEAR LEADERS LIKE YOURDON AND HYATT, NORTH AND LORD WERE PREACHING..........."CAN'T BE FIXED" UNTIL THE ROLLOVER SHOWED THEM UP FOR WHAT THEY WERE: FEAR PUSHERS AND PEDDLERS.

YUP, Y2K REALLY, REALLY SCREWED UP EVERYTHING THERE.

-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), July 31, 2000.

Quotably Quoted - What the 2/99 Senate Report Really Said...

http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=003HW8

-- The (first@Senate.report), August 01, 2000.

"Jamaica Experience Shows Why Dire Y2K Predictions Went Wrong"

http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=003b57

-- (Recommended@read.ing), August 03, 2000.