The Tour de France is starting this weekend. ESPN2 will begin with a preview on Friday. Some of us OKers are avid TDF fans, so I figured I'd start a thread to discuss the race. Who are your favorites? Any predictions?

-- Michael (meglin@juno.com), June 29, 2000

Answers

I have to go with the sentimental favorite (and my favorite): Lance Armstrong. However, I've heard that Barnie Riis is back in shape; he could be a real threat to re-gain the title. It would be fun if there is a real battle, instead of an easy win for one person right from the beginning.

-- Mary (maprunner@juno.com), June 30, 2000.

I'll go with Armstrong this year. Even though Vandevelde, one of his domestiques, suffered a spider bite on his tailbone and was sent home in pain, his team should be stronger. I really don't see that from Deutsche Telekom and Ullrich apparently "put on some weight" this offseason. Pantani will be one to watch with 3 mountaintop finishes, but I don't think he looked good at all in the Giro and there isn't enough time to prepare to contend. Julich hasn't really raced that much this Spring, and even so, we have yet to see whether he can get to the top. Vaughters might even be the better rider on that squad. A few people I wouldn't worry too much over are Olano and Zulle. I just don't see them making a lot of noise this year. I've never been a fan of Jalabert either. I just can't understand why some people continue to take him so seriously. My dark horses include Boogerd, Luttenberger, Conti, Lelli, Savoldelli, and Bartoli. On the podium in Paris I'll take Armstrong, Escartin, and then Ullrich. I think Jiminez will be in the mix along with Luttenberger to help keep Escartin and Ullrich honest in the mountains.

Bjarne Riis is riding again???

-- Mook (everett@psi.edu), June 30, 2000.

Bjarne Riis!!!! My mistake!!!! I was thinking of Jan Ullrich.....

-- Mary (maprunner@juno.com), June 30, 2000.

I will have to go with Armstrong. He looks to be ready (if you watched tonight's preview show on ESPN2 you couldn't miss seeing how lean and fit he looked). I think he missed some training a month or so ago when he crashed during a training session and got a concussion. I figure that forced rest probably was exactly what he needed to be in peak condition.

I don't see Pantani threatening the overall -- he might give Virenque a good race in the mountains.

On the preview show tonight, USPS riders where saying it would be tougher to win this year. But, I think that is just talk. I imagine the entire team is stronger (a bit like last year's OK team).

I wonder who Paul Pierce is picking?

-- Michael (mike_eglinski@kcmo.org), June 30, 2000.

I am going with Jan Ullrich. If Jan can come back from huge weight gains and win the tour, I see no problems with Mike winning the U.S. Champs this fall.

-- Snorkel (danielmeenehan@aol.com), July 01, 2000.

Wild dark-horse prediction: Lance will suffer some sort of problem that knocks him out of the race (a minor setback, careerwise, but something that prevents him from finishing a stage), and the mantel passes to Tyler Hamilton, who brings glory to the post office once again.

What ever happened to the days when we could just count on Anquetil to win?

-- J-J (jjcote@juno.com), July 02, 2000.

Whoops, I mean mantle. The top of a fireplace is not of much use in a bike race.

-- J-J (jjcote@juno.com), July 02, 2000.

Now that we are well into the tour, and have seen some big climbs as well, it may be time to reassess the situation. Anyone care to comment?

Armstrong looked good on the climb no doubt about that. I still pick him to win. I think Ullrich will do fine and fight for a spot on the podium. Then there are about 10 others who will round out the top 3. I'm not so sure about Escartin now, who I picked as the other man on the podium in Paris. I wonder if riding both the Giro and Tour doesn't hurt him, but he still has a reasonable chance.

I think that Virenque, Jiminez, Beltran, Escartin, Moreau, Zulle, Pantani, and Mancebo look quite good. I expect that it will be one of these guys in the end. On the other hand, one ought not count out the other 2 Banesto boys. If they can keep their minds off Kelme and start looking at the race around them, you may see one of them in the mix. I won't write off Jalabert, but I still don't think he'll factor in the race that much.

Obviously this will all depend on team dynamics. I really don't know what Mapei will do - do they favor Beltran or Bartoli. If they are going with Bartoli, then you pick him. What do guys like Moreau and Beloki do, sacrifice themselves for Virenque? How about Otxoa and Heras? They're climbing well, sort of. In any case the action should be exciting since these climbing teams will want to gang up on Armstrong.

-- Mook (everett@psi.edu), July 12, 2000.