OPINION Richard's Y2K predictions revisited ------------------------------------------------------------ By some freak combination of astral alignment, good karma and dumb luck, several of my December '99 predictions have already come true this year. Normally I only subject my faithful readers to my predictions once a year. But because of this astral thing, my boss at UpsideToday asked me to give a midyear update. So here it is -- Richard L. Brandt's December '99 predictions and their June '00 updates. ------------------------------------------------------------ http://www.upside.com/Richard_Brandt/39492bbf0.html Richard's Y2K predictions revisited
June 16, 2000
 
I swear, my editor made me do this.

Every year, I try to make a few predictions for what we might expect in technology business in the coming year. I think I do it because I enjoy all the fan mail I get from faithful readers who enjoy telling me what an ass I am and how much smarter they are. I guess it comes from deeply suppressed fond memories of being beat up by the school bullies in grades 2-12.

But there is one real difference between my predictions and everyone else's. Before I make new predictions, I go back and look at how well my previous year's prognostications fared. (See "Tech predictions for 2000.") It's not usually a pretty sight.

However, by some freak combination of astral alignment, good karma and dumb luck, several of my December '99 predictions have already come true this year. Normally I only subject my faithful readers, many of whom are probably dead from ulcers or brain hemorrhages caused by compulsive reading of the rantings by a guy who really pisses them off, to my predictions once a year. But because of this astral thing, my boss at UpsideToday (blame him, not me!) asked me to give a midyear update.

So here they are -- my December '99 predictions with June '00 updates. Remember, I am a professional ass. Do not try this among friends.

1. Everyone will wonder what happened to all the disasters we've been predicting because of the Millennium Bug. Third World countries (those still using IBM (IBM) and Unisys mainframes) will have some problems, though.

UPDATE: Man, I knew I shouldn't have wimped out on the Third World thing. This whole Y2K panic must be the biggest legal fraud ever perpetrated on the business world. Before the year is out, we'll see the mother of all bugs, a virus spread by someone who thought it would be a good way to get a date with Jodie Foster.

2. The Y2K doomsayers will claim credit for preventing disaster because they predicted it, making us all worried enough to do something. They will start preaching about the Y2.001K bug, will lose credibility and end up living on the streets of San Jose, panhandling for consulting fees.

UPDATE: Have you seen them? A pathetic sight. In all the boasting about how they prevented disaster, they really had to stretch to explain why all those Old World mainframes didn't crash. The New York Times even quoted them: "Of course! We didn't take into account how many fewer computers everyone else has. That means they actually spent enough fixing the bugs after all." Still, the Y2.001K bug thing finally robbed them of any respect.

3. Steve Jobs will do something surprising. OK, I'm getting wimpy now, having misjudged him two years running. How about this then: He will introduce a new secret weapon, a microprocessor-based device that is not a desktop computer. OK, OK, it will be a wireless personal device that connects to the Internet, your broker, your mother and the Pope, will revolutionize communications, make telephones obsolete, will screen your calls, will come in many stylish colors and designs and will dry clean your shirts while you wear them. (I'm only kidding about the Pope part.)

UPDATE: Steve, you're really letting me down, here. What do we have so far? Apple's (AAPL) delayed System X? But there's still time. Come on, Steve, think: "Appliance. WAPI. Bluetooth. White shirt." Think September.

4. The U.S. government will loosen encryption export standards. The American public won't care.

UPDATE: Don't worry if you missed the news. Many people did. But they'll be loosened even more before the elections. Especially once congresspeople realize how much encryption business we've handed to Canada.

5. Most government officials in the United States will decide that it is necessary to implement an Internet tax, but will fail to do so. It's an election year.

UPDATE: This one you probably didn't miss. The politicos keep wringing their outstretched hands over the issue, but nothing has happened yet. Except that Andy Grove, my personal hero, had the guts to stand up before them and tell them equal tax collection laws would only be fair. I'm sticking by this one.

-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), June 16, 2000

Answers

Glitch central gone!!!!

http://pub5.ezboard.com/fyourdontimebomb2000.showMessage? topicID=5942.topic

-- jo (ws@hj.net), June 16, 2000.

Well, try this.

http://www.ciaosystems.com/glitchcentral.htm

-- jo (ws@hj.net), June 16, 2000.