Thanks.

-- Maybe it'll shut him up for a while (I@hope.so), June 05, 2000

Answers

It would do no good. You need to understand that The Cult Of The Memed, led by high priest CPR, and disciples like Doc Paulie (with even "groupies" like Patricia), considers anything said prior to their "salvation" from the evil doomer meme as merely their unholy, worldly ignorance. CPR & co cleansed themselves of their meme, were "sanctified" when Y2K turned out to be nothing, and are now out to save everyone from themselves.

Typical of how cults get started. Nothing special.

-- WD-40 (wd40@squeak.not), June 05, 2000.

I do not see Patricia as anyone's groupie. I have seen her as fiercely independent. Just because she may agree with someone's point does not make her a "groupie". See Invar and his followers at EZ Board. There's a guy with groupies.

-- FutureShock (gray@matter.think), June 05, 2000.

I HAVE ALWAYS BEEN........and "ANTI-DOOMER". Not a Polly or anything the TWITS of Y2k choose to paint me. I WAS ***NEVER** a "doomer". From the beginning, I objected to the scenarios painted by Gary North and Ed Yourdon and the rest of the BS Artists of Y2k. Like many, many other "Pessimists" of Y2k from Peter de Jager and Alan Simpson or Chris Anderson in South Africa, I moved into the moderate position in 1998 when it WAS OBVIOUS that enough work had been initiated and was underway to AVOID ANY DISASTERS and in fact the Doom Scenarios painted by the Y2k MORONS. READ IT AND WEEP: MY COMMENTS as I moved from 8.0 down to .5 on the Russ Kelly Panel are at:

LINK: http://www.russkelly.com/experts.html CPR

-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), June 05, 2000.

LINK: http://www.russkelly.com/experts.html CPR

-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), June 05, 2000.

Statements about Y2k for Russ Kelly's EXPERTS web site page: LINK Charles Reuben (December 1999): The original final Pre-2000 statement for Russ Kelly was written for BEETHOVEN"S BIRTHDAY and contained the line, "Long after 2000, the music of Beethoven will be played.......". The arrest of two sets of Domestic Terrorists forced me to hold that statement that contained a lashing for those who spread and/or condoned the use of FUD to sell their ideas or products vis a vis Y2k. In the next few days before Christmas, 1999, people will see one tangible aspect of the Y2k problem that few predicted. People will wait at Airports for thorough examination of themselves and luggage for possible tools of Terrorists planning tragedies instead of Celebration and Rejoicing of the CDC to 2000. At the borders, traffic will be slowed as cars are searched completely. Yet, none of it is directly related to the Y2k Computer Date or Embedded Systems Problem. Rather, it may be related........directly to a CLIMATE OF FUD, fear, uncertainty and doubt built and sustained by vested interests some within the Computer/Business Sector but strangely, even weirdly propagated far outside the boundries of Computers, Business and Government. At the core of the buildup of the FUD, was even more strangely, the WWW of the Internet which enabled the cheap and rapid re-distribution of admixes of ..........fact.......gossip.....hoaxes and opinion......all (and this is critical) ........without the standard Editorial Control that responsible media people even those from the far sides of both Political venues, Left and Right would exercise. After 2000, WHO will be held responsible for the FUD........and the enormous COST.......to counter act it?? That open question will be one of the Lessons of Y2k. Below, I offer another knowing that ...........few......will understand. Few will see it and few will act because of it. However, I think it offers the key explanation of HOW and WHY Y2k as a Computer and Business Problem was addressed, contained to the current level where it can be properly managed. The lesson of Y2k is that the PROBLEM **WAS** addressed because it had to be. Western Civilization is a history of the conquering of "Problems" and more importantly the *Improvement* of the best that we have and hope to be. Learn the Lesson of Y2k. NEVER let it happen again. NEVER. For some, the lesson might be right out side their windows in their gardens. http://stand77.com/wwwboard/messages/7955.html

(August 1999): "Aside from minor accidents during Y2k testing quickly solved by human intervention, there is no evidence of any "emerging crisis". Thus, *reality* suggests we lower the "warning flags" again. So I narrow the range down to 1.0 to 1.5." "Work progresses and one I.T. report indicates that 96% of mission critical and non critical applications and embedded systems will see the end of final testing before 1/1/2000. That leaves 4.0% of the work not "finished". NOTE: that does not mean the work is not started. It means at the Large Corporate level: 4.0% is not finished. In all sectors of business, that alone is "better than usual" for failure and problems are every day things in all businesses or all would be "perfect". We know that is not the case EVER. Since the pessimists make the claim that the "failures are being hidden" the argument for "interconnectedness" falls apart. If everything were "interconnected" how could the "failures" be hidden?? That would imply the 45 Million Employees of large Corporations have the ability to "cover it all up". That is ludicrous. There are either real "impacts" or there are not. The argument for "they're coming soon" is old and stale. The Bottom Line here is simple: "problems" can be managed whether Y2k or the weather. If a manager can't deal with problems, he is replaced. Y2k is merely a business problem now that can be managed." "The NERC information to be released in the next few days will remove most remaining concerns about the ability of Power Utilities to conduct business as usual (BAU)." "That will end concerns about the so-called "iron triangle". It now begins to look as though the proverbial "bump in the road" might only be on a few back roads and have little consequence. The major analysts long ago stated that problems vis a vis Y2k would take place throughout 1999. Several estimates range from 15%-25% taking place before 1/1/2000. Now one well known Y2k "expert" claims he underestimated the ability to hide the problems that might have been found. I see no reason to comment on such a statement. The fact is there was major damage to business networks in the Orient from the well known Computer virus: CIH. There was no effect noted either in the Global 2000 supply chains or in Corporate earnings. The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P may be irrational but they do measure earning power and consumer confidence in several ways. There is no reason to believe the Retail market will not set every record known in the 4th Quarter as we celebrate the Last Festival of the Merchants of the 20th Century. Like Dr. Yardeni, I have long questioned the ability of the economy to continue faced with the impacts of Y2k and all sorts of serious problems from offshore. But only a True Fool argues with reported results to date." "Bottom line?? We have have underestimated the ability of the US/European and World economy to handle all problems whilst overestimating Year 2000 impacts. History will answer such questions not I. Charlie Reuben DALLAS, A YEAR 2000 READY CITY."

(May 1999): "Please change my evaluation of the y2k problem down again almost to the Nick Z. range: 2.0-3.5. It would take a series of major exposes about "uncomplete-able work" before I would raise that range which includes now 2/3rds due to "Y2k panic vendors". Even that is almost over. The "fever" is broken." "Dallas is a MAJOR I.T. center and a Y2k remediation center. The DFW/DAMA Y2k group has had presentations from most major corporations, Texas Utilities and the Fed.Reserve Bank and all present the view point that they can manage their problems. The HCFA seminar show progress even in lagging Health related Enterprises, gov. and private." "The theme here is simple: "There will be failures but they will be "managed"." "My view now is that Y2k as a business/computer problem is OVER ...IF... work in progress continues at the increasing rates being reported. We know the knowledge base accumulated over the past five years is being deployed by the Legitimate Consultants and Vendors at increasing rates. Most of the "scary stories" now are merely about the Public or OLD re-hashes of "what-ifs" or "lets pretend". "Lets Pretend" was a radio show that went off the air by the early 1950s. Y2k is heading that way now." "Y2k has reached the stage nicely described in Corinthians: "Why seek ye after a vain thing?" Its not over but it is "winding down". Those who don't see this are now the ones in "denial". If I have one special expertise in Y2k it is in tracking the "Extremists" and Fear Pushers and now, the "Back of Y2k Hysteria" has been broken just as de Jager discusses the REAL PROBLEM: the Computer/Embedded Systems related problems. There will always be niche panic people over any issue. NOW.....few believe the claims of the Y2k "Extremists"." "There is now simply too much evidence that the Fortune 2000, even SMEs and the Government entities have a "problem that can be managed" no matter how many breakdowns may come from the Code or the Embedded systems problems." "Contingency plans including inventory stockpiling would enable even the GMs of the world to function until "Weak Links" in the vendor or even customer lines can be "Fixed on Failure"." "The NERC summary and the NRC release clears up the status of the Utilities and there is little need to debate the Telco or Bank progress. The Security Industry is on track." "As for "Public Panic" NOT BLOODY LIKELY if the so-called "Iron Triangle" performs as now expected." "And recently, there has been a significant drop in the commerce associated with the Web Sites pushing so-called Y2k Supplies. Business is off by their own reports." "Just last week, Y2kNewswire.com reported that several vendors are in trouble because the PUBLIC is returning merchandise. The "purported" shortage of Honda Diesels has been corrected by Honda shipping to distributors and Honda can ramp up more if they see the need is there."

(March 1999): "The release of the Corporate information has reduced the possibility of any impacts from the Y2k computer date problem into a more than manageable range. I rate the Computer/Business problem now at 3.0. However, the public hysteria due to widespread confusion about remediation makes the Public perception now a major part of the Y2k problem. I rate that as : an additional 2.5 or almost equal to the Computer Business problem."

(August 1998): "Disclosures of the timelines of some major Corps re: completion of Y2k work. In particular: AT+T, Texas Utilities, BankBoston and the City of Dallas. In addition, the State of Texas is meeting all goals as described to Rep. Horn in testimony last Monday here in D/FW. Last but not least, private communications to me show that other Banks and Utilities are in much better shape than reported."

-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), June 05, 2000.

CPR:

At one time, you were at a level of 8(!), yet state that you were "never" a doomer? As I recall from last year, a level of 8 exceeded the average TB2000 expectation for Y2K.

-- WD-40 (wd40@squeak.not), June 05, 2000.

What happens when WD strokes his "little red tube"? Wahoohee!

-- Ron Schwarz (dontrespondtolosers@tbkuc.com), June 05, 2000.

An 8!!?? Holy Cow. I was never an 8. That meme musta really got him good. BWHAHHA

-- rational doomer (An 8?@Wow CPR!.), June 05, 2000.

GAWD this is FUNNY!!!!

The Idiots of Doom™ can't let go of this...their god and savior Ed YourGod let them down and now they gotta pick at every nit they can find ta try and save face!

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

Trying to paint the realists as cultists?!?!?!?!? TOO damn FUNNY for words!

Geez, can anybody think of a way to bottle this stuff....we could make a mint selling "doomer denial" by the case!

-- I Guess all the doomers forgot THEY were the cultists (all@last.year!), June 05, 2000.

Oh come on now. All I see here is label-slapping, "doomer" vs. "polly" once again. That is not realistic if you want to claim that you understand how someone else thinks - not just dismiss them because you don't like their delivery.

Are you the same person that you were at 18? Of course not. How did you get from there to here? Well, you figured it out as you went along, didn't you? Isn't that an extremely important part of the process of learning in this world? People say "Once I was lost, now I'm found" - but that rarely happens, except in religious conversions.

Don't forget that "Y2k awareness" was stretched over about 3 years at least, and for all of us (who paid any attention to it), went through phases.

When I was first a doomer (1996-7), I bought into the Big Uncertainty, for better or worse.. As I looked wherever I could find understanding, I felt that Y2k optimists were no more to be trusted than pessimists. I felt that both sides had "something to sell," but that the pessimistic side was what I favored for myself, because given that I truly did not know "who to listen to," pessimism gave me more room to prepare for ALL eventualities.

Over time, it SLOWLY began to dawn on me that it was the doom side that was NOT using an open mind, but maintaining a fixed position despite the changing reality, indeed they were resisting it more and more. Once I WAS caught up in this, the question "who do you listen to?" was extremely important for me. It was the persistence, I believe, of the more optimistic voices, their willingness to look at the changing reality, that swayed me to do the same, and encouraged me to the "polly/optimist side" over time. Although I never entirely stopped feeling "nobody knows," I became comfortable that Y2k was looking much better and was not to be obsessed about any more. The tables turned, and it was the pessimistic side that ended up looking to me like the rigid and inflexible ones.

"Nobody knows" was a propagandistic "slogan" for Y2k. If it wasn't at first (and for some, it always was), it surely became one. The clincher was the censorship of TimeBomb 2000. If truly appealing to your sense of yourself as the master of your destiny and encouraging you to "make up your own mind," then WHY censor a forum?... It's to laugh.

CPR asks in his recent thread "(When you know that you don't know) who do you listen to?" or, "How do you know what you know?" It remains just as important after Y2k, where in our technological world everyone is a specialist, and "knowledge" is more than ever, a baffling mix of truth, b.s., and commercial self-interest. It is fantastic thing that we have more information at our fingertips than ever. The upside possibilities are unlimited. But what do we do with it? By 1998, I was so baffled by Y2k "information overwhelm" that I let myself in for, that I had pretty much given up, and my mission was to hunker down and "prepare." This represents the worst of what can happen with too much "information" and being unprepared to sort it intelligently. But it doesn't have to be.

With the rise of the internet, I think we need to re-visit the whole subject of "How do we know what we know?" as a whole separate discipline.

-- Debbie (dbspence@usa.net), June 05, 2000.

WD (His friends call him KY, lube is after all, lube),

Thanks for reminding us all as to just how ridiculous the doom meme really was - and I guess still is for some of you. I mean, some people are still re-living the shot heard round the world, much like the Blazers will probably watch tapes of last nights loss to cross eyed Shaq and the Lucky Lakers.

I though I missed the old days of debates and arguments of biffy, but now I realize just how horrible the 6th grade essays most doomers post and call debate really were.

Here is a link to the oldest thing I can find by cpr, Striking the Balance, and if this is his old doom thought than I must be missing something

LINK

Happy chemtrails, mre's, led flashlights and black helicopters,

QuietMan

-- QuietMan (quietjohn2k@hotmail.com), June 05, 2000.

Charlie won the HONORARY UGLY SISTER award at least twice(1997-8). What is this for you ask??

Citation: "For consistent and untiring efforts in debunking the myths surrounding Y2k. For unmitigated zeal in exposing the Sleazier Elements amongst us to ridicule, and for general all-round Grumpiness."

-- Doc Paulie (fannybubbles@usa.net), June 05, 2000.

Actually, that **International Award** from Chris Anderson, (the God Father of Y2k) was given me 3 years in a row and the last time, I was given a Lifetime Achievement Award and Possession.

And for those who think I am a pill, I can assure you that you do not want to tangle with Mr. Anderson who is purported to wrestle Rhinos on weekends to stay in shape.

-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), June 05, 2000.

ROFL Charlie, Hey, you lightened up long enought to put a little humor in the thread, excellent! I visited the site and checked out your award, funny stuff. It appears that you were both pessismtic way back in 1996/97/98 AND still a debunker at the same time, now that's a combination I NEVER saw at TB2000, other than a hint from Flint and Decker, who posted both ways (for the sake of argument is my guess, lol). And I will try to stay away from Anderson ;)

-- FactFinder (FactFinder@bzn.com), June 05, 2000.

No, no, no! You don't understand! CPR was never a doomer! He just thought things were going to be very bad. But that isn't a doomer, by his definition. He's taking his cue from our beloved president Clinton: "it all depends on the definition of is", or in this case "it all depends in the definition of doomer". Hope that helps.

-- Sergeant Friday (just.The@facts.Maam), June 06, 2000.