The agroecosystem report is one of five in-depth studies supporting results which will be highlighted in "World Resources 2000-2001, People and Ecosystems: The Fraying Web of Life." This flagship publication, to be released in September 2000, will sound the alarm about widespread decline in nearly all the world's ecosystems.

World's Farmlands Fail to Keep Up with Population Pressure

By Cat Lazaroff Environmental News Service May 23, 2000

WASHINGTON, DC - Nearly 40 percent of the world's agricultural land is seriously degraded, say scientists at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Without new techniques to increase productivity, these farmlands may not be able to support Earth's growing billions, they warn.

Harvesting wheat with a sickle in Syria (All photos courtesy CGIAR)

The researchers, who carried out the most comprehensive mapping to date of global agriculture, say that the ongoing degradation could undermine the productivity of those soils.

"The results of this innovative mapping raise all kinds of red flags about the world's ability to feed itself in the future," says Ismail Serageldin, World Bank vice president for special programs and chairman of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). IFPRI is one of 16 research centers that make up the CGIAR.

The evidence compiled by IFPRI suggests that soil degradation has already had significant impacts on the productivity of about 16 percent of the globe's agricultural land. Combining the new map of agricultural land with existing expert assessments of soil degradation suggests that almost 75 percent of crop land in Central America is seriously degraded, as well as 20 percent in Africa and 11 percent in Asia.

IFPRI experts have identified potential degradation hot spots in Latin America and the Caribbean, where crop yield growth is slowing and soil fertility is declining. These areas, where the capacity of land to continue producing food using current production methods appears most threatened, include northeast Brazil, and sections of Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia and Paraguay.

Dr. Ismail Serageldin

"The economic and social effects of agricultural land degradation have been much more significant in developing countries than in industrialized countries," says Dr. Serageldin. "These are precisely the regions where the greatest growth in food production will be needed, but where all indications are that achieving such growth will be the most difficult."

Dr. Per Pinstrup-Andersen, IFPRI director general, says threats to the world's food production capacity are compounded by three disturbing trends. First, an estimated 1.5 billion additional people will be on the planet by 2020, almost all in poorer developing countries. Second, the natural fertility of agricultural soils is generally declining. Finally, it is increasingly difficult to find productive new land to expand the agricultural base.

Competition for water will further constrain food production, IFPRI warns. While inputs and new technologies may succeed in offsetting these declining conditions for the foreseeable future, the challenge of meeting human needs may grow ever more difficult over longer periods of time.

Soil Degradation on Agricultural Lands

IFPRI's agricultural mapping is the first study that attempts to illustrate what the agency calls the "area intensity" of agricultural land use across the planet - the share of land in each location devoted to agriculture.

Farmers will need new techniques to keep up with increased demand for food from a finite amount of farmland

The analysis says crop production can still grow on a global scale over the next several decades. However, the underlying conditions of many of the world's agroecosystems, particularly those in developing countries, are not good. Soil degradation, including erosion and nutrient depletion, is undermining the growing capacity of many agricultural systems.

One of the most common techniques used to maintain the condition of agricultural lands is the use of fertilizers, such as nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium or manure. Too little can lead to soil nutrient mining, in which the amount of nutrients extracted by harvested crops is greater than the amount of nutrients applied. Too much fertilizer can lead to nutrient leaching - the washing away of excess nutrients, which then contaminate ground and surface water, leading to algae blooms that harm fish and other species.

Agricultural Growth

Historically, agricultural output has been increased by bringing more land into production through conversion of forests and natural grasslands. The limits of geographic expansion were reached many years ago in densely populated parts of India, China, Java, Egypt and Western Europe.

Fields on sloping land contribute to erosion

The total area of land used for agriculture rose from 4.55 billion hectares in 1966 to 4.93 billion in 1996.

Intensification of production - obtaining more output from a given area of agricultural land - has become a growing necessity. In some regions, particularly in Asia, this has been achieved by producing multiple crops each year on irrigated lands using new, short duration crop varieties.

Agricultural land use has also intensified around major cities, and to an unexpected extent, within cities, particularly for valuable perishables such as dairy and vegetables, but also to meet subsistence needs.

Over the past three decades, production of the world's three major cereal crops has increased, up by 37 percent for maize (corn), 20 percent for rice, and 15 percent for wheat. Prices for these crops have dropped, down by 43 percent for maize, 33 percent for rice, and 38 percent for wheat.

The main reasons for these successes include a continuous flow of new production technologies such as improved seeds, better management practices, and improved pest and disease control. The commercialization of farming has increased the availability and quality of production inputs, and created more efficient means of marketing outputs. The expansion of international trade has minimized price differences between locations and seasons.

But each improvement in agricultural productivity is becoming more difficult and more costly. There is increasing evidence that growth rates in cereal yields have slowed in both developed and developing countries. Future increases in food production are likely to be more difficult because a complex range of environmental and social factors must now be taken into account while developing new crop technologies.

Global demand for cereals is projected to increase by 40 percent, with 85 percent of the increase in demand coming from developing countries. Meat demand is expected to increase by 58 percent, with 20 percent of the increase coming from developing countries, and demand for roots and tubers by 37 percent, with 97 percent of this increase coming from the developing world. Demand for fruits, vegetables and seasonings as well as nonfood farm products will also rise.

Agricultural researchers are working to develop varieties of rice and other crops that do not require as much fresh water

Biotechnology companies are working to develop crops with increased nutritional content, and which require less water, fertilizer and other resources. Critics fear that these genetically engineered crops could reduce the genetic diversity of existing crops, or contaminate wild species with altered genes.

"Agricultural research will become even more crucial in the 21st century than in the last century as we seek to grow more food on the same amount of land and water without causing ecological damage," says Dr. Pinstrup-Andersen.

Causes for Concern

The unprecedented scale of agricultural expansion and intensification raises two principal concerns for the researchers. First, technological advances and increased fertilizers may not be able to offset the continued depletion of soil fertility and fresh water resources. As soil fertility is reduced and water becomes scarcer, food prices could skyrocket.

Much of the deforestation in Brazil's Amazon basin is a result of converting land to agricultural uses

Second are the broader concerns about the negative impacts of agricultural production, including decreased river flows and groundwater levels, increased soil erosion, and the damage to both aquatic ecosystems and human health from fertilizer and pesticide residues in water sources or on crops.

Loss of habitat and biodiversity from putting land to agricultural uses, as well as narrowing of the genetic diversity of domesticated plant and animal species, are additional concerns for the IFPRI scientists.

Agriculture influences climate change by altering global carbon, nitrogen and hydrological cycles.

The analysis of the world's agroecosystems comes from satellites, maps and data sets. IFPRI's scientists undertook this project in partnership with the World Resources Institute (WRI) as part of a larger international initiative, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, a comprehensive multi-year, scientific assessment launching this year.

The International Rice Research Institute's genebank in Los Banos, Philippines, contains the world's most comprehensive collection of rice genetic resources

The agroecosystem report is one of five in-depth studies supporting results which will be highlighted in "World Resources 2000-2001, People and Ecosystems: The Fraying Web of Life." This flagship publication, to be released in September 2000, will sound the alarm about widespread decline in nearly all the world's ecosystems.

"Halting the decline of the planet's life support systems may be the most difficult challenge humanity has ever faced," said Jonathan Lash, WRI president. "The key is to provide people with information and incentives to think about the capacity of ecosystems to produce not only goods, such as food and timber, but also critical services, such as water purification, carbon storage, and biodiversity."

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