IOWA - Computer Error at ISU Causes Widespread Flaws

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Title: Flub at ISU skews report A computer error tilts research that is used to set land-use policies.

Source: The Des Moines Register Publication date: 2000-05-11

Ames, Ia. - A computer error made in an Iowa State University laboratory caused widespread flaws in a federal study used by lawmakers nationwide to set land-use policies.

The National Resources Inventory, published every five years, influences public policy on everything from farm subsidies to urban sprawl. The flawed ISU report overestimates the amount of the nation's private land that was developed from 1992 to 1997.

The mistake was discovered four months after the report was made public in December. ISU officials noticed the error and reported it to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which paid the school $1 million to prepare the study.

ISU will fix the error but will not receive money for the extra work, a USDA official said this week.

Sarah Nusser, the professor in charge of the project, said she feels bad about the blunder. "It was pervasive, unfortunately," she said.

The report already has been widely circulated and publicized. A Des Moines Register story about the report said it showed that Iowa develops farmland and other open ground at four times the rate it did in the 1980s.

In Pennsylvania, the report was being used by anti-sprawl advocates as proof that developers were quickly gobbling up open spaces.

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Dan Glickman came to Ames in December to unveil the report, which he said underscored the need for a greater national commitment to preserve private land.

The report says nearly 16 million acres of farmland and forests were developed from 1992 to 1997.

The public will have to wait until June for an accurate report.

Warren Lee, who directs the USDA's Natural Resources Inventory from a Maryland office, said he doesn't yet know how significant the errors are.

Lee said that despite the error, he believes the essence of the report will remain and will probably show major development trends of the nation's open spaces.

The numbers might be off, but Iowans need only look at the state's landscape to see that development is taking over rich farm ground, anti-sprawl activists said Wednesday.

"Just look around you, and you can see that something is very, very wrong," said LaVon Griffieon, who lives on an Ankeny farm. "As I look out my window, I see rooftops where corn and soybeans used to grow."

Griffieon is president of 1,000 Friends of Iowa, a group that promotes the value of Iowa's agricultural land and natural resources.

Lee called the five-year statistical analysis a "powerful tool" in judging land-use patterns, soil erosion, wetlands issues and irrigation changes.

"It's critical that it be accurate and correct," Lee said. "Obviously, we're disappointed . . . but our relationship with Iowa State University is strong." He said the USDA would continue to work with ISU on surveys in a relationship that dates back 20 years.

ISU discovered the error in an incorrect computer code that overestimated development in certain areas. Every five years, ISU statisticians analyze data from more than 800,000 areas across the nation.

Reporter Jennifer Dukes Lee can be reached at (515) 232-2383 or dukesleej@news.dmreg.com

Publication date: 2000-05-11 ) 2000, YellowBrix, Inc. http://realcities.yellowbrix.com/pages/realcities/Story.nsp?story_id=10459337&site=charlotte&ID=realcities&scategory=Computers%3AY2K

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