Why, lets look at the facts people

Fact

1982 you couldn't give stocks away at the bottom of the market. 1982 DJIA 1000 TODAY 10700

1974 they trashed the gold market at the very bottom with central bank sales. 1974 GOLD $35.00 TODAY $280.00

1996 nobody wanted So. California real estate and there was no buyers 1996 avg house $175,000 TODAY $345,000 or much more +$$

2000 nobody wants gold and has been trashed by everyone 2000 GOLD $280 1980 $800.00 20 year decline and now inflation is here and still no one wants it. Due for a huge rally.

Smart money is buying gold because I have a very close friend with a relation with a very wealthy women who buys $200,000 each and every month. She is average cost investing into physical gold and she is no ones fool.

WE WILL SEE SOON WHO WAS RIGHT AND WHO WAS WRONG

One great advantage is I have inflation on my side and low prices.

Something to think about before you run your mouths

-- GOLD LOSER (goldloser@the.club), April 19, 2000

Answers

Gold loser,

Just in case you're right, what's your street address, and when do you go to work?

Frank

-- Someone (ChimingIn@twocents.cam), April 19, 2000.

Gold Loser:

Aren't you the guy who was threatening suicide in another thread because of your $1 million in gold that's going south?

Facts: Gold down $1.80 to $283.10 today. Again.

If the fact that the price has been falling for many years indicates a good investment, will you pay big money for my old 486?

-- Jim Cooke (JJCooke@yahoo.com), April 19, 2000.

Jim Cook

Do we have inflation or not. Forget government CPI.

Do you feel like you are paying more for your cost of living expenses.

If so what are you going to do about it ?

How will you protect yourself from this hidden tax..inflation ?

To close....Gold will raise due to the lack of confidence in our government with inflation. Historically gold is very cheap right now but should not be purchased unless you have atleast a 2 year outlook to cash out when prices rise significantly. But once it goes up from here it is most likely too late to buy.

-- GOLD LOSER (goldloser@the.club), April 19, 2000.

Idiot troll

-- (I, troll@TB....), April 19, 2000.

GOLD LOSER,

Your screen name is very apt.

-- (nemesis@awol.com), April 19, 2000.

Gold Loser,

So, you're saying that the reason why gold declined over the last twenty years is because inflation was so low and people had so much faith in their government?

If we see inflation in the range of 12-15% and get a president like Richard Nixon again I'll be the first to buy some more gold. In the meantime, you're sitting on a big pile of yellow metal that's deflating by the day. If you sell it now you can at least earn 5% in a money market account for the rest of the year which is a lot more than you're going to earn waiting for gold to rise again.

-- Jim Cooke (JJCooke@yahoo.com), April 19, 2000.

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/

ORO (4/19/2000; 0:05:39MDT - Msg ID:29003)

Oldgold stirring the pot

Oldgold, thanks for stirring our little pot of soup. Some stuff has gottent stuck at the bottom.

Rather that try to put Trail Guide's point across for him, which he does very well himself, I will just point out this:

1. There has been a gold standard in effect through the 80s. The US overdrew its gold and the system collapsed.

2. There has been a dual physical gold and paper gold standard since 1989 or so. The US and UK overdrew this by 1997.

3. The Asian collapse, though it would have happened eventually anyway, was a planned event that saved our sorry @$$es for three years.

4. The bulk of the dollar support mechanism (remember that we did not have a current account surplus in three decades) was a series of debt traps for various emerging nations that were indebted by tricks and by force. These debtors needed dollars to pay off interest on dollar loans so that they could buy life's basics on the global markets.

5. The idea of a debt derived money offering stability in economic function and in prices is an absurdity on the scale of defying gravity, absolving the world from Newton's law. Without an anchor in a commodity money, all debt money spirals out of control and into worthlessness. No conceivable system can make it otherwise. Gold is to finance and money as the speed of light is to Einstein's law of relativity. Gold answers the question "relative to what?".

In short: for a monetary system to work, someone, somewhere, must be able to exchange the currency for gold AT A FIXED RATE. We call this parity.

6. The global dollar debt system is collapsing. Soon, only the US and a few "friends" will be left owing dollars and owning the "bag" - our debt.

7. The system could not work if it was well known even among the top bankers, because their attempts to get into gold for defense against this would have killed the system. Even now, when it is apparent, bankers refuse to believe that their product is as toxic as RJR's and Columbia's main export combined (and they work in remarkably simillar ways).

Finally, say thanks for the low gold and silver prices you are getting and pray that it can continue. Next thanksgiving tell your familly to give thanks to the Germans, Japanese, Koreans, Chinese, Indians, Italians and others who feed and clothe us half the time (actually 56% in 1998, 60% in 1999).

---------------------------------------

Some details and discussion follow:

We have fought a war and have lost it. The war that was fought was for financial hegemony through the issue of the reserve currency for the world. In essence making the US serve the role of banker to the world. The war was lost in 1968 and defeat conceded in 1971 and again in 1973. With much support from a world scared of a complete freeze-up of commerce, the dollar was resuscitated just in the nick of time and a new gold convertibility standard was put together by the same bankers that pushed for and got the Fed and then Bretton Woods. JP Morgan said "gold is the only money". He said so well into the Fed's life when gold was no longer circulating in great volumes.

Fiat debt money is incapable of maintaining value without a fix to a real item - notably the precious metals, and the most prominent of them, gold. The dollar is two different things at the same time. Within the US is only a product of debt, the IOUs of all us credit card using and mortgage and car loan paying people that the bank sells to the producers of the houses, goods, autos we buy with "credit". Outside the US, the dollar is much the same, until it meets the BIS for transnational settlements of imbalances. There, the central banks trade gold for dollars at an unknown exchange rate much greater than that in the markets. (This is a premium that is payed for the right to buy gold rather than the gold itself - this way it is kept off the books). The private markets provide the non-US private bankers an opportunity to hedge their dollar assets and those of their clients. The US banks and their UK allies produce the paper gold needed for settlements of dollars into gold debt.

The fact that someone - somewhere - can settle over $100 billion dollars in unbalance "imbalance of payments" every year with gold, is what makes the dollar's value relatively stable.

The US and UK bankers had completely overstepped their bounds in the process and issued way more paper gold than there could ever be redeemed (the BIS and OCC statistics just deal with derivative contracts, these are just mirrors of a much larger gold banking system which underlies trade and at which gold settles the dollar through the SDR). So long as the gold credits were believed to be redeemable, the system was credible.

When it lost credibility, in 1996 - 1997, the imperative became the classic wildcat bank strategy of moving the gold in the back door when the inspector comes to look at your reserves, and transfering it to the next bank just as the inspector is on his way there. The whole dynamic is now the satisfaction of gold demand by whatever means necessary so as to maintain credibility of the paper and thus prevent a "bank run". The Washington Agreement was the statement by the EU that they will not put in jeopardy any more of their gold, that their part in the dollar support system is over. Since that date, the US has been exporting some 800 tons of gold (annual rate) officially, and an unknown ammount "below custom's radar".

In the meantime, the bankers in the EU and the UK have been redeeming their gold liabilities to their clients with American gold liabilities. When actual gold ran out and gold yet to be mined (or found or explored for) was used for settlement, some time in the late 80s, this part of the dollar support system was born. The part US banks played was (at first) small, US market share in gold banking was some 20% in 1995. By 1997, it passed 35%, by mid 99- over 42%, now it probably passed the 50% mark according to OCC numbers (BIS numbers for the end of 99 will only come out in June).

This process reflects the change of responsibility for managing the dollar from the losers of WWII to the "winner". The Fed is responsible for the viability of the liabilities of US banks. These liabilities are what we call dollars if banks can't supply dollars they owe, the Fed supplies them through the treasury and directly. The gold liabilities of US banks are quickly growing so that they will soon hold all of the dollar side of the global dollar-gold settlement system. When the transfer of gold liability from the UK to the US is complete, there will no longer be any reason for Europe and the Oil nations, nor China to assist in controling the gold ecxhange rate. At that point, the gold obligations will be terminated and gold contracts and accounts drawn on US banks will be settled in dollars only. The time for that is not here yet. I would venture a guess at the time frame of the end of this year. At current rates, the transfer should be finished by then.

The terms for the end of the game were set, in part, in the early 80s. Since then, there had been a tremendous effort by the US government to stop use of American resources by American and foreign consumers. Major finds of gas, and particularly, oil were capped and not allowed to go into production. Forest lands were set aside from loggers. Gold mines were induced not to explore nor produce gold within the US. Why? So that when the end does come, the US will have cash traded commodities to sell - so that when the US can't buy on dollar credit anymore, it will have something to trade while the country is reindustrialized.

The US tried to play the technology card by assisting US tech companies in gaining investments, that was done by making them appear more attractive to investors through SEC and IRS accounting rules regarding ESOPs and merger accounting that lower the cash costs of top talent and make losses seem like earnings. But the "social adjustment" oriented school system produces mostly good salespeople and hamburger flippers. India has more programmers than Silicon Valley, and Taiwan and Singapore produce more chips. The best computer and software design is done in Ireland and the Norse countries, and wireless technology is mostly a Finnish, British and German industry. The only way to eliminate the disadvatage in education is to import as many tech pros as we can before they stop wanting to come here. If 10 million 30-35 year old techies can be imported over the next 5-10 years, the US may have a chance to survive as the major economy.

The bank debt reports published by the BIS and the IMF tell the story in all of its gorey statistical details. The dollar debt outside the US is collapsing as it is turned from emerging market and transnational corporate debt into American debt. The US imports produce a flood of dollars that pay off the liabilities of Emerging nation's corporations, governments and banks. It is the need by these to repay dollar loans that has produced demand for dollars abroad. Now that they no longer borrow in quantity and have been reducing their debt, these countries are slowly reducing the international value of the dollar and adding themselves to the long list of dollar creditors. The only dollar debtors left are the UK, some HIPCs, and the greatest debtor ever, the US.

The story is simple. The debt trap set for the emerging markets by 3% dollar interest rates in the early nineties, was sprung in 1997 by a joint effort of the Fed, the IMF and the BIS. The IMF demanded self destructive policies from the countries it was supposed to help, the BIS raised their bank's reserve requirements (actually it was their net asset ratios - a.k.a. ccapital adequacy - but few understand what that is and reserves are a close enough descriptor), and the Fed raised interest rates by all of 1/4% and the whole Asian economic system collapsed.

This generated the requisite dollar demand, stopped Asian gold demand, produced an Asian gold supply, and allowed EU and US banks to buy out many Asian corporation's assets that they were barred from owning before. Hyena and Vulture LP had their day. We were spared disaster for another three years.

-- alan (foo@bar.com), April 19, 2000.

Jim Cook

Well, I believe that would probably be the thing to do if you need the money and maybe a senior citizen with limited financial capabilities. But if and if is a very big word, the US dollar gets trashed then that money in the bank in a few short years will have no value even with interest. Our economy and dollar are almost one in the same. Stock market is very frothy and debt is at all time highs. Not to mention one of the longest expansions in history. So if the stock market is in trouble so is this expanding economy that has no workers to expand on if you know what I mean. At this point the risk in gold has been removed, but it is risky. And don't tell me the stock market isn't because investors are not going to be pleased with inflation in the system now. Paper has never stood up to high inflation and I don't think it can be very different this time. PLACE YOUR BETS. If everyone agreed with me, which is a bad sign, I would probably have alot more risk than I do now. In fact I can't find anyone who likes gold. This is a very comforting position.

-- GOLD LOSER (goldloser@the.club), April 19, 2000.

Loser,

Fact: Gold is down $.70 today to $282.30.....again.

Fact: People like you were singing the same song in June, 1980 when gold was at $400, well below the high of $800

Fact: If you're a real gold bug you've lost money for twenty years straight.

From this, we should conclude that you know what you're talking about now? Loser, you are a slow learner.

-- Jim Cooke (JJCooke@yahoo.com), April 19, 2000.

Hey there Jimmy

Who and why do they keep pushing it down with worldwide demand at a record high. Demand goes up and price goes down. Take your blinders off and yes I am very slow I don't get in a hurry to sell anything.

-- GOLD LOSER (goldloser@the.club), April 19, 2000.

Loser:

Who is "They"? Do you have a link? "They" seem to have been very busy for the last twenty years.

Can you provide evidence that gold demand is up? Everything I've seen says it's down. That's why the price keeps falling. What I have seen is that the demand for platinum is up and guess what? The price is up also! I guess "They" don't have the same control over the platinum market, eh?

-- Jim Cooke (JJCooke@yahoo.com), April 19, 2000.

Loser:

Just so you're not further confused, here's what the World Gold Council (I'm assuming that they are not "They") says about recent trading:

"The LBMA reported that London's net gold clearing statistics fell during March as trading ranges narrowed and volatility declined from February's levels. The number of ounces transferred fell 19% to a daily average of 24.2 million ounces (752.7 tonnes), which is the second lowest level on record."

http://www.gold.org/Gedt/Wgmc/Wc000418.htm

-- Jim Cooke (JJCooke@yahoo.com), April 19, 2000.

Jim quit fighting it

Leland (4/21/2000; 17:19:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 29145) A Reading Treat From Dan Ascani http://www.gmsresearch.com/fr.ov.htm (Taken from his April 19th report)

"For gold, one must consider its potential as a store of value, its long-term support level of $250, and its Purchasing Power Parity number of $350 (calculated by the World Gold Council), and the potential as revealed by the charts (and in our monthly research) to rebound to $414. Rebound or not, gold stores value, and when gold lost hardly any value even as $2 trillion were wiped out of the equity markets the past few weeks, it emphasized the merits of considering diversifying a bit into this asset class, too. Assets reallocated into gold when stock market risk is high would not have lost $2 trillion. It was retained, for the most part, even with no net appreciation in the price of gold.

There are other alternatives negatively correlated with the stock market, too, which provide defensive options during periods of high stock market risk."

-- Your Full Name (Your @Email. Address), April 21, 2000.

Quit fighting what? Oh, you mean the gold bug's bullshit? Current events does my fighting, I'm just reporting.

Money market funds store value even better than gold. While the markets lost 2 trillion dollars, money market funds still paid interest while gold did.....nothing. Why is it that gold bugs believe crap about support level prices for gold and think the same thing for stocks is ridiculous?

-- Jim Cooke (JJCooke@yahoo.com), April 22, 2000.