For Richard: I'm 61. Retired at 59 1/2. I've been everything from a chemical plant manager to a contractor to a custodian. I've lived on the top of a mountain in the boondocks for 25 years. Nice large house, lots of land, lots of resources. No debt for 20 years. We can clive here forever regardless of what happens -- even pre-Y2K. My wife and I have always given up risky, high potential gains for smaller guarenteed gains. Our actions have always beem aimed at assuring survival and lifestyle preservation.

Why a crash? As everyone noted in Part I, the markets are irrational so I'll skipthe statistics. In spite of the big deal made Friday, the markets are still grossly overvalued. The Dow needs to be at 6,000 - 7,000 at the most and the NASDAQ needs to be 1,800 - 2,000. No PPT/CPT or the use of the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund could stop a fall of this magnitude once it started. I would expect a Dow of 1,000 and a NASDAQ of 200 at the bottom.

Further, the huge and increasing deficit in the Current Account of the US (total money movemenet in and out of the US) is unsustainable. Something is going to happen within in a year. The only question is whether the maerket crashes first or other countries get fed up with importing our inflation and drive the dollar down and down. Again, this will also resuslt in a crash.

My own guess is that if the market doesn't tank Monday, it will early in May when the 401k people find they have ridden a lossing horse and move into money market acounts. In addition, 401k's add $30b to the maarket each month. Even a 50% reduction would have a significant impacat on the averages. There are also several major ESOP's that permit stock sales in May...You've been working for crap based on your stock option. Are you going to hold it and gamble or are you going to take some profits? Lastly, day traders could be foreced out of the market through losses and margins.

So why do I believe the feds anticipate a crash in the near future (other than reading my all-knowing comments, yea, right)? The feds may be stupid but they are not terminally dumb. I do not believe they do things without a reason. All of their actions for over a year point toward increasing efforts at tightening command and control of the general population and attempting to influence public beliefs through apparent PSYOP actions. I don't have the time to document this right now. If there is any interest, I'll try to put something together next week. However, it is all consistent with a preceived need to control a major, national event in the near future. Short of war, a market crash seems the only other rationale.

I hate to sound nostalgic but many of us remember a different reality. In the past, there were closely knit families who helped one another. here were relatives in the country who had farms. People actually had skills that didn't require a computer or paper. Were a crash to occur now, all I can see is welcomed and, in fact, demanded, goverment regimentation in order ot survive. I hope it doesn't happen but I can't see any logical way around it.

Peace,

Todd

-- Todd Detzel (detzel@jps.net), April 15, 2000

Answers

Hello, Todd.

I liked reading your post.

Watch out for Black Monday!

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), April 15, 2000.

I agree with your outlook. It's bad enough what we're going to have to go through with the economy, but my gut keeps telling me there are even worse posibilities beneath the surface with our government. If you can come up with additional info and thoughts, would love to here'm.

-- brock gannon (brockgannon@gnc.net), April 15, 2000.

Monday could be another rollercoaster ride, but from talking to just everyday people in casual conversation they will not/cannot believe that it will continue. The blinders are still there, so I wouldn't be surprised to see some rallying only to be dashed at a not too future date. I do not give any opinions when speaking with them only ask what they think. The first thing that comes to mind is 'putting up a brave front' while their knees are shaking. Sort of whistling in the dark for them right now.

-- Cassandra (cassrh@hotmail.com), April 16, 2000.

Soon some talking head will announce this was just a correction and it was healthy for the market and it is now over. Then everyone and his brother will rush back in driving the market to new heights.

I forgot how to say it in French

"Let the good times roll"

-- Swampthing (in@the.swamp), April 16, 2000.

Swamp,

Yea, that is also a big concern of mine. If it doesn't tank really soon, a mania beyond all manias will start. Could it lead to something worse than a depression when it finally does crash? We'll just have to wait and see.

Todd

-- Todd Detzel (detzel@jps.net), April 16, 2000.

good comments; I fully agree; however, TPTB have conned us since I first became aware of things in 1957 and somehow they continue to do so; never underestimate the power of the establishment to accomplish the unthinkable; "let them eat cake"... "bread and circuses"...;

keep writing!

thanks

Perry

-- Perry Arnett (pjarnett@pdqnet.net), April 16, 2000.

I too think we will soon see a crash and depression, but remember Y2K...it may not be as bad as we think. The rich may suffer much more than the middle class, since the economy has a great momentum and maybe the power will be transferred from the elite to the hands of the producer/consumer.

-- Lemonade salesman (@ .), April 16, 2000.

Todd I wasn't disagreeing I was just being cynical.

As long as the TPTB put off giving the markets this medicine- the markets only get sicker and the medicine gets to be larger doses and worst tasting.

Also for many (most not all) the access to the markets has made them like a casino. It's not investing its gambling. Greater fools abound. Buy the dips. The daily recoveries we have seen repeatedly for months have been precipitated by the disease of addiction. Gambling addiction. I suffered from it myself in the fall. When confronted by my wife of this consumption we decided to sell our stocks and invest in MF. Still after about a week I was secretly selling the MF's and daytrading via e-trade. Then buying back into MF's. To remedy the situation I simply sold out and took possesion of PM's.

Lots of people out there are addicted in the same way ( they just don't know it). Personally everyone I know who invests buys in for the big pop and then, hopefully sells before they fall only moving onto the next stocks. Sometimes it works most times it doesn't the MM see to that.

Anyway if it does crash badly most people will die or we will become a nation of communist slaves.

Cod liver oil anyone???

-- Swampthing (in@the.swamp), April 16, 2000.

Swampthing,

We dumped most of our stocks in the middle of '98 and went to cash. Much lower rate of return but as I said initially, we've always been into capital preservation. Sold the balance a month and a half ago when I saw it coming. Hit the tops on most. Glad I don't have to watch what's going on like a hawk.

Looks like the PPT is active this morning. If they push the market up, we are in big, big trouble. Only fools with extensive vested interests would try to stop a major correction.

Todd

-- Todd Detzel (detzel@jps.net), April 17, 2000.

LOL, yes it's all the PPT, buying up the stocks again. Whenever the market goes up, it must be the PPT buying it up. By now we should be about a few extra trillion dollars in debt from all the buying they've been doing, but I'm sure they can just sweep that under the rug.

-- (hmm@hmm.hmm), April 17, 2000.