Troll Cup start lists wreak havoc on Vegas odds

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Things are only now beginning to readjust themselves to order after NEOC's posting of the start lists for the Troll Cup shook Vegas oddsmakers up last weekend. Clubs like HVO, UNO, NEOC will show up as expected, in numbers if nothing else. Other clubs have been badly hurt: BAOC, QOC, and ALTOS have all seen their stocks plummet. A few clubs have been helped: WCOC looks more and more likely to field a team this year, CSU might make their first token appearance, and CNYO, EMPO, SVO are likely to field teams of their own. There has been a hint of concern over OK, for which only 7 names could be found. Most insiders, however, feel that Mark will "come clean" soon and resume his rightful place on the start list.

-- Mook (everett@psi.edu), April 10, 2000

Answers

CSU might make their first token appearance

I'd think CSU could manage more than a "token apperance." If I'm not mistaken they've got both of the Ken Walkers (who were on the QOC relay team that finished steps behind us last year) and Boris G. (who ran on HVO's silver medal team last year).

-- Michael (meglin@juno.com), April 10, 2000.


The CSU team will be a major player -- could win it all. Their line- up: Karen Williams, Boris Granoviskiy, Greg Walker (the middle one, MIT freshman) and Ken Walker Jr. UNO should have at least one excellent team, probably more; I understand their goal is to have 10 (!) teams, and they probably can do it. They could put together an all M35-45 team of great o'ers...eg Peter Andersen, Alar Ruutopold, Steve Tarry, and Ernst Linder. Don't know if that is a real team or not. Had to really look to find Dan's name down in Brown Open. Smart strategy, Dan. Save that ankle but get some good technical training.

-- Peggy (Pdickison@aol.com), April 11, 2000.

I just heard on CNN that Jesse Helms has picked DVOA to win the whole thing!

-- Mook (everett@psi.edu), April 11, 2000.


Wouldn't you agree that there are about 8 or 9 teams that are likely to make bids to win the 4-point relay? Of those I think only 4 or 5 have any shot. It seems to me that during the past two years there were only 6 or 7 teams making bids, but still 4 or 5 that had some prayer. The clubs are a little different each year, and I think the fields are getting deeper, but I don't think the performances from the best teams are getting tremendously better. Possibly slightly better though. The main thing that's changing is that some clubs are getting more experience every year. I look to the winner this year to be one with experience together.

HVO is a club that could make a run at the title, but I don't honestly think they would field more than one "power" team despite the huge size of the club. If they can get some of their new people (who I think may be European imports) qualified then they could put together a few legitimate teams. Otherwise I think there will be only one strong team emerging from HVO and a few others lagging behind a bit.

I've always considered UNO to be one of the relay powers, but they haven't always showed up in full force. I would think they have some familiarity with the terrain and agree that they could field two legitimate teams this year. If I were a betting man and OK weren't in the relays, I'd pick UNO to win it all. I think I'll pick them to finish in the top 3 this year at least (but would prefer less a eastern podium make-up).

I think this may be a down year for NEOC in the 4-point race. I think that organizing the meet can have its downfalls. Much as it pains me to say it, I don't forsee a NEOC medal in the 4-point race.

Another team that may be headed for a down year is QOC. They haven't always been big at recent relays.

Despite not showing up in great numbers on the preliminary start list, I think BAOC should be quite good this year. They are in the same situation as OK in terms of travelling and not being so familiar with the terrain, but it they can put together decent runs they will be contending for a medal. They at least have an honest shot at the gold.

I think CSU could be strong, but you can't always put together individuals and expect them to perform as a cohesive team. I think they will become better, but this may still be a year too early for a "CSU surprise". Does anyone know if this team is a bunch of Boston people? Is this something like a BSK for the 00's?

I think DVOA will suffer some this year, and will definitely finish out of the top 5. I think this is a club on a long, slow, downhill slide.

An interesting "dark horse" pick is SVO. They've taken the past two Crystal Relays and will eventually probably end up dominating and then annexing DVOA. They will be in the mix of things and have a shot at a medal. This may be a year in which they can the jump from the Crystal Relays to the US Relays. I would be pleased to see them as "Rookie of the Year", but they're not really rookies.

I heard that SLOC was dead, so I won't even think about them.

I don't know about CSU. I'm not sure they're the best thing since sliced bread, as some would have you believe. I do hope they haven't committed any recruiting violations. Could they be the "Florida" of this year's relays? I'd like to think it's impossible to "buy" the relays, but I suppose it has been done before.

I don't see clubs like COC, WCOC, and RMOC putting together all the parts this year to make a strong run. I could be wrong, and sort of hope I am (barring, of course, the possibility that they could make a very strong run). As they say, all you need for a 4-point team is a 16-year-old girl who can run a yellow course semi-competently. If they bring the the right combination of people, these teams could make some pretty serious noise.

There are new york teams out there besides HVO of course. I don't know much about them, but they could contend for spots in the top 10. In fact I'll go out on a limb and predict that one of the "other" NY clubs finishes in the top 10.

I'm sure I must be leaving some significant non-OK team out.... oh well. It's fun to speculate. Relays are so much more interesting than individual races for that aspect.

Who would I _like_ to see do well in the 4-point? Personally I would like to see this: 2. RMOC, 3. BAOC, 4. COC 5. UNO, 6. NEOC, 7. HVO, 8. QOC. I think I have to pick a lot of those types because the relays are on the East Coast. That leaves out a lot of teams that I would like to see up there, but honestly don't expect to (you have to be somewhat realistic). Teams that I don't want to see do well are (of course) DVOA and ALTOS. I would be delighted to see COC, WCOC, COO fare a bit better than these picks.

-- Mook (everett@psi.edu), April 11, 2000.


Fascinating analysis. I haven't looked that closely at the start list, so I can't analyze that well. COC could be a contender, though unless I missed someone they do have a weak link. CSU, for the record, is a semi-legit team in that all four members do live in Boston but until this year belonged to other clubs. Presumably they've all changed their primary clubs, but we could check that out... I think DVOA is probably on the downside though they're such a huge club they always seem to have someone good that no one has ever heard of -- remember Chris Gross last year?? HVO is kind of similar, and Mook is right about the foreigners, whose eligiblity is always a question mark to the rest of us. Joe B. said he doesn't know yet who will be on the WCOC team; it probably won't be as good as it could be if they drew on all of their members.

Well, Mook is right, it will be fascinating to watch. Let's hope it's as much fun to take part in.

-- Peggy (Pdickison@aol.com), April 11, 2000.



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