Apr 6, 2000 - 06:08 PM

Gasoline Futures Rise on Refinery Problems, Crude Prices Slip The Associated Press

NEW YORK (AP) - Prices of futures contracts for gasoline rose Thursday on the New York Mercantile Exchange because of refinery problems that could cut production, but crude oil contracts lost ground after failing to extend Wednesday's gains.

Gasoline for May delivery rose 0.54 cent to close at 80.00 cents a gallon on the Nymex.

Reports of the shutdown for unscheduled maintenance of a reformer at a BP Amoco refinery in Texas helped support gasoline prices. Earlier this week, BP Amoco reported a fire on a reformer at a Utah refinery.

Reformers are used in the refining process to help produce high-octane gasoline components.

Contracts for May delivery of West Texas Intermediate crude fell 14 cents to close at $25.69 a barrel.

Following a selloff during the past few weeks, oil had climbed 38 cents on Wednesday. But prices fell Thursday when traders were unable to push crude above $26 a barrel.

Oil, which surged as high as $34.37 a barrel in trading on March 8, has been retreating on promises by world oil producers to increase production.

In other Nymex contracts, May heating oil fell 0.15 cent to 66.00 cents a gallon and May natural gas gained 6.8 cents to $2.956 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Brent oil from the North Sea fell 30 cents to close at $23.45 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange in London.

Gasoline Futures Rise on Refinery Problems, Crude Prices Slip

-- Ain't Gonna Happen (Not Here Not@ever.com), April 07, 2000

Answers

Given the fact that 6 days ago they were at $0.95 per gallon and now they're $0.80 per gallon I think that this story is being taken a bit out of context.

check it out for yourself.

-- abc (123@456.789), April 07, 2000.

Correction to my post above:

"$0.95" should be "over $0.90"

-- abc (123@456.789), April 07, 2000.

Today's results would sicken any long. Unlead gas down across the board.http://tradingcharts.naq.com/futures/quotes/1HU

Click on the links for the charts and the "technical analysis" of the market. Right now, only Natural Gas is very, very bullish and that will stop when it cross the "BTU" content value vs. Crude.

Link

-- The Shadow (shadow@knows.com), April 07, 2000.

JUNE was typical: Here is the end of the "technical analysis" comment:

".....Additional Analysis: The long term trend is DOWN. The short term trend is DOWN. Don't be fooled looking for a bottom here because of this indicator. The stochastic indicator is only good at picking bottoms in a Bull Market (in which we are not). Exit short positions only if some other indicator tells you to. "

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/UG/60 LINK

Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Price is below the moving average so the trend is down.

Additional Analysis: Market trend is DOWN.

Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:

Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average

Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Short Term: The market is EXTREMELY BEARISH.

Everything in this indicator is pointing to lower prices: the fast average is below the slow average; the fast average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; and price is below the fast average and the slow average.

WARNING: Market momentum slowed down on this bar. This is indicated by the fact that the difference between the two moving average lines is smaller on this bar than on the previous bar. Its possible that we may see a market rally.

Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Long Term: The market is EXTREMELY BEARISH.

Everything in this indicator is pointing to lower prices: the fast average is below the slow average; the fast average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; and price is below the fast average and the slow average.

WARNING: Market momentum slowed down on this bar. This is indicated by the fact that the difference between the two moving average lines is smaller on this bar than on the previous bar. Its possible that we may see a market rally.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an oversold condition. An oversold reading occurs when the close is nearer to the bottom band than the top band.

Additional Analysis: Volatility appears to be picking up a bit, as evidenced by an increasing distance between the upper and lower bands over the last few bars. The market appears oversold, but may continue to become more oversold before reversing. Look for some price strength before taking any bullish positions based on this indicator.

Volatility Indicator: Volatility is trending up based on a 9 bar moving average.

Momentum Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (-0.05) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Momentum is in bearish territory.

Rate of change Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (-6.17) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Rate of Change is in bearish territory.

Comm Channel Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: CCI (-162.14) recently crossed below the sell line into bearish territory, and is currently short. This short position should be covered when the CCI crosses back into the neutral center region.

Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation,CCI (-162.14) is bearish, but has begun showing some strength. Begin looking for an attractive point to cover short positions and return to the sidelines.

ADX Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: ADX measures the strength of the prevailing trend. A rising ADX indicates a strong underlying trend while a falling ADX suggests a weakening trend which is subject to reversal. Currently the ADX is rising.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is down. A rising ADX indicates that the current trend is healthy and should remain intact. Look for the current downtrending market to continue.

DMI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: DMI+ is less than DMI-, indicating a downward trending market. A signal is generated when DMI+ crosses DMI- .

Additional Analysis: DMI is in bearish territory.

RSI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 34.39). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.

Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat oversold (RSI is at 34.39). However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence here before getting too bullish here.

MACD Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: MACD is in bearish territory, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above or below the SlowMA.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. MACD is in bearish territory. However, the recent upturn in the MacdMA may indicate a short term rally within the next few bars.

Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average. While this is normal following delivery of nearer term contracts, be cautious. Decreasing open interest indicates lower liquidity.

Volume Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: No indications for volume.

Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is DOWN. Volume is trending higher, allowing for a pick up in volatility.

Stochastic - Fast Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The SlowK line crossed above the SlowD line; this indicates a buy signal. The stochastic is in oversold territory (SlowK is at 17.39; this indicates a possible market rise is coming.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is DOWN. The short term trend is DOWN. Don't be fooled looking for a bottom here because of this indicator. The stochastic indicator is only good at picking bottoms in a Bull Market (in which we are not). Exit short positions only if some other indicator tells you to.

Stochastic - Slow Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The SlowK line crossed above the SlowD line; this indicates a buy signal. The stochastic is in oversold territory (SlowK is at 15.32); this indicates a possible market rise is coming.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is DOWN. The short term trend is DOWN. Don't be fooled looking for a bottom here because of this indicator. The stochastic indicator is only good at picking bottoms in a Bull Market (in which we are not). Exit short positions only if some other indicator tells you to.

-- The Shadow (shadow@knows.com), April 07, 2000.

AGH, that gasoline future could rise on "refinery problems" is a lie - Flint said so, even though it happened repeatedly throughout January and February.

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), April 10, 2000.