A copy of this important and seminal work on Probability Theory has recently come into my hands and I thought you might be interested to share some of the findings. Just a short warning for those of you who may be prone to depression - you should read no further - you may recall that this book was withdrawn from sale after the marked increase in the suicide rate amongst Newcastle fans following it's publication.

The full title of the work is "Principia Dougalia - A Treatise on the Law of Averages in relation to the forecasting of Newcastle football matches" and is subtitled "Wo're ganna loose".

In chapter after chapter of arcane mathematical reasoning Dougal expounds the theories behind her forecasting techniques. Some learned mathematicians have dared to claim that the reasonings supporting these methods are flawed ("total and utter bollux" was mentioned more than once) and yet these forecasting techniques achieved a period of remarkable accuracy during the managerial reigns of Dalglish and Gullit at this Northern soccer outpost.

Space prevents me from going into too much detail about the Dougal Law of Averages but some of the major findings can be summarised thus :-

1. NUFC has established a 4 game winning run Therefore :- We are BOUND to lose the next match (This was never tested during the Dalglish Gullit era)

2. The opposition has established a 4 game winning run Therefore :- We are BOUND to lose the next match

3. NUFC has lost the last 4 matches in a row Therefore :- We are BOUND to lose the next match

4. The opposition has lost the last 4 matches in a row Therefore :- We are BOUND to lose the next match

5. The Times (or any other newspaper really) has forecast a Newcastle win. They are ALWAYS wrong when this happens Therefore :- We are BOUND to lose the next match

6. The Times (or any other newspaper really) has forecast a Newcastle defeat. They are ALWAYS right when this happens Therefore :- We are BOUND to lose the next match

7. I did not wear my lucky hat/scarf/pants/socks or I did not buy a program from the usual spot or I ate something different for breakfast/lunch Therefore :- We are BOUND to lose the next match

As I say, these theories achieved considerable notoriety by their remarkable accuracy during the Dalglish/Gullit era but have since been found wanting following the arrival of Young Bobby Robson at St James Park. Dougal maintains that the central core of the theory remains intact and describes the Robson era as a "blip" in the statistics pointing to a resurgence of interest in the theory shown by the so-called Monkey-Heed sect during the last few months. Critics remain unmoved however, pointing to the lack of mathematical (or indeed any) reasoning in the Monkey-Heed sect.

The jury is still out but will probably "settle for a draw" to use the author's own inimitable words.

-- Anonymous, March 30, 2000

Answers

ROTFLMAO! Brilliant, Jonno! A laugh I've so needed today! :-D

-- Anonymous, March 30, 2000

He might not come out to play very often, but when he does its a class act......brilliant Jonno.

-- Anonymous, March 30, 2000

A reet rivetin reed! Welcome back to full-time posting, Jonno. We've missed you.

-- Anonymous, March 30, 2000

Nice one Jonno! (:o)

-- Anonymous, March 30, 2000

>>>>The Literary Critic of the Heaton Times alan.clark2@cableinet.co.uk)<<<<<<<

Better know to most people as 'The Oldie'

hehehe (;0)

-- Anonymous, March 30, 2000

My chronicled friend Jonno expounds an interesting theory. A theory, I might add, which holds more water than a pair of airtex undies or a string vest with holes in it. Indeed , I have witnessed at first hand many of the symptoms of Principia Dougalia myself. Further examples of this debilitating disfunction were sadly evident at Anfield last Saturday.

My earlier comments about the abuse from the row behind me being of a racist nature were clearly mis-informed and ill-judged. Indeed, on reflection, I can see now that they were not directed at players such as Heskey, Camara or the Oirish tw@t who wasn't even playing and their like but at the person next to me, who by coincidence, was dressed totally in black. The outbursts of "You bl@ck b@st@rd. You f***in' bl@ck tw@t. You're @ disgr@ce to the hum@n r@ce" were obviously directed at Doug@l. Had I analysed the situation as dilligently as has Jonno, the correlation would have been obvious. How stupid of me to jump to an ill-formed opinion.

Had I taken more notice, I would have realised that the good fellows behind me were silent during the first half of the match when we were doing holding our own (so to speak) and Dougal was enjoying the end-to-end play (so to speak again). However, it was no coincidence that their behaviour deteriorated significantly after Liverpool scored. It was no coincidence either that Principia Dougalia was evident immediately after Camara's goal. From that moment forward, all around were subjected to language and behaviour the like of which I would never have expected to come from a member of the Toon Army. It was simply unacceptable behaviour. I can perhaps now begin to understand what made these mild-mannered fellows turn on the bl@ck one. Talk about being provocative. "We're gannin' to lose". "Liverpool are going to score again" (just as Shearer headed the equaliser), "Well actually fer fuxsake pet" and "Ooh - Floods". And all this with heed burried below seat level. No, I now see I was wrong and Principia Dougalia was indeed the cause. I appologise from the heart of my bottom to those two behind and look forward to another chapter from "Principia Dougalia - A Treatise on the Law of Averages in relation to the forecasting of Newcastle football matches" again on Saturday. Keep it up Dougal pet, we love you really!

-- Anonymous, March 30, 2000

Damn - forgot to switch off me italics. Too many beers tonight with Ace!

-- Anonymous, March 30, 2000

Well written Screacher....and so observational........however don't fall into the 'lets write in invisible ink' trap that Ace is obviuosly steering you down......Tony Twoshoes leading on the effects score with MOVING text of the 'Fulham have Sack Bracewell' thread. Well I was impressed by it!

-- Anonymous, March 30, 2000

The good(?) news is that a new edition of "Principia Dougalia" (simply referred to as "The Principia" in intellectual circles) is to be released shortly. In a bold attempt to make this work available to a wider audience, the book is to be issued in the familiar bright yellow covers and renamed "Doom and Gloom for Dummies".

Despite the title, there is little change to the original which the publishers confess that they couldn't understand either. One major addition is that a foreword has been provided by none other than Pruritis ANI, some time contributor to this august forum. I quote PA's very concise foreword in full here (with permission of the publisher):-

"Aa've seen it aall before"

PA was extremely critical of the first issue of the book claiming that it painted far too rosy a picture of Newcastle's prospects. In a recent interview PA admitted that he now shares a season ticket and only watches half the games at SJP which means that "At least aa divven't have to suffer quite so much now". When asked the obvious question, "Why then, go at all?" Pru rapped "Wey it's the only bit pleasure a get man."

Doom and Gloom for Dummies is released next week and is priced at #23.95. It is expected to enter the best selling charts at number one on it's day of release due to massive advanced orders from the Voluntary Euthanasia Society.

-- Anonymous, April 02, 2000

Priceless Jonno! (:o)

-- Anonymous, April 02, 2000

a foreword has been provided by none other than Pruritis ANI

I have the honour to be PA's financial adviser, and as the miserable owld b*****d forecast, he hasn't been paid yet for one of the most lucid, succinct foreword's (note the aposcatastrofe-a pathetic attempt to curry favour by using current literary style) your (not 'you're' - current literary style again) ever likely to read. Not a bleedin pence -('penny' is also currently unacceptable).

So why should it surprise youse (plural of 'you') that PA leapt at the chance to support such a brilliant piece of socio-mathematical reasoning ? The fact that no payment has yet been received is an example of the wider implications of the law. Which incidentally and most definitely has not yet been debunked. See who's smirking come May the whatever. I'd canonise Dougal, backdated.

-- Anonymous, April 03, 2000