According to some current projections, sea level will rise 200 inches by 2100, 20" by 2010. Evidence of this can be seen in the Mississippi floods in 93, the North Dakoda flood of 97, and Mozambique this year. For folks living at or near sea level, the results will be catastrophic.

Coupled with storms like Gilbert in the Yucatan in 98 and Floyd in NC in 99, the future looks all wet to me.

-- Hugh Tad (hughtad@hightide.com), March 25, 2000

Answers

Hugh:

From your post [let me guess], you don't follow the technical literature in this field [that is obvious] Try the following:

According to some current projections

According to some current projections, the earth will be destroyed by an asteroid in July; or by solar activity in May; no end to these current projections; science disagrees.

Best wishes,,,,

Z

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), March 25, 2000.

Now that is a new mistake for me. Let's see how to correct a missing carat.One mistake I haven't made before.

Maybe the sysop will need to fix this one.

Best wishes,,,,

Z

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), March 25, 2000.

It worked!!!

Best wishes,,,,

Z

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), March 25, 2000.

Global Warming -- perhaps. Global Warming caused by man -- perhaps, or perhaps not.

But, the one thing that I think really detracts from the global warming debate is statements like "Evidence of this can be seen in the Mississippi floods in 93, the North Dakoda flood of 97." For some reason, some people seem to think that any "unusual" weather even is somehow unique and portends great disaster. Couldn't they all just read a little history?

Let's start with the assumption that anything that happened before about 1940 was not caused by "greenhouse gases" or by man. Even this is an incorrect assumption, I'm not willing to go back to pre-1940 technology to keep sea levels down, and neither are many other people.

Now, do a little reasearch. Alaskan glaciers have been retreating since they were surveyed in the 1800's. The Red River flood of 1997 was small change compared to the great flood of (I think it was) 1898. The "dust bowl" of the 1930s was one of the most impressive climatalogical events since this country was settled. I live in Minneapolis; six blocks from the Mississippi -- the flood of 1993 was minor compared to the floods of 1965 and 1968. Anyone read the Wizard of Oz recently? -- written in the 1930's and reflecting the fact that major tornados in Kansas were considered a problem at that time.

Global temperature goes up and down. Right now it is going up a bit. Sea levels go up and down -- most of Florida was underwater only a few 10s of thousands of years ago. Whether the current variation is due to man's efforts remains unknown.

But, suggesting that floods and hurricanes are "proof" is just plain ignorant.

-- E.H. Porter (Just Wondering@About.it), March 25, 2000.

Hugh,

Could you please provide some information on any of the projections that show the sea level will rise as much as you say. In particular I am interested in the projection that shows a rate of rise of 20" (thats 50cm) in only 10 years.

Current scientific studies shown here indicate very much lower rates of change.

20 Mar: The Poseidon estimate of sea level rise of +0.5 mm/yr contrasts with an even smaller figure from the National Tidal Facility in Adelaide who find that their network of 27 tide gauges around the geologically stable Australian coast shows a sea level rise of only +0.3 mm/yr with an average data span per tide gauge of 36 years. This is a rise of around 1 cm from the post war cool period of the mid 1960s to today,hardly an unexpected result, but it does contradict other tide gauge studies from elsewhere, such as the IPCC estimate of +2 mm/yr. An increase of 5 cm/yr will require massive warming to occur consistantly in Antartica to levels above freezing point. There is no indication of this happening yet. Have a look at this graph to see what has been happening at Mawson Base in Antartica only a short distance from where the large ice flow is currently breaking loose. Then have a look at this temperature record from Vostok, a Russion base at the top of the Antartic plateau. Are you really suggesting a temperature rise of 50oC (90oF) for this land locked ice sheet to start moving at the speeds required?

-- Malcolm Taylor (taylorm@es.co.nz), March 25, 2000.