Ed Yourdon has posted a new March 18, 2000 essay 20-20 Hindsight: A Y2K Postmortem at http://www.yourdon.com/books/y2k2020/index.html

He starts out with:

I was wrong about Y2K. Not about the magnitude and pervasive nature of the problem, and not about the likely consequences if millions of computer systems and embedded chips around the world had not been repaired or replaced. But I was wrong about the likelihood that enough of the repair/remediation would be finished in order to prevent serious disruptions. Indeed, it has gradually become apparent during the first few weeks and months of 2000 that Y2K has caused a number of moderate-to-serious problems in various parts of the world -- but it has not turned out to be the crisis that some of us had anticipated.

Some of you might detect a change of Ed's course here, so I heartily recommend that you read this new essay. The rest will find it interesting, also.

In addition, Ed inaugurates a new discussion forum and explains why his previous essays disappeared from his web site for a while, but are back now. Go see for yourself -- he has links to all of them in a table of contents at the end of the new essay.

(I know this is on-topic, so somewhat out-of-place among the plane crash, Twinkie strike, and political postings, but I'm old-fashioned. :-)

-- No Spam Please (nos_pam_please@hotmail.com), March 25, 2000

Answers

It is the hardest thing in the world to say," I was wrong." I know, for I've had to say it a few times in the past three months. I think this was the right thing for him to do. I thought he was sincere in his book, and I think he is sincere now. Even though he added a few qualifiers, he still admitted he was wrong, and that's what is important. Hell, I added a few qualifiers myself. I admire him very much for writing this essay, and he's a bigger person for having done it.

I'm glad I did the preparation on food and water, I just wish I'd stopped there.

Now if some of those Doomers, who were so fond of beating up every "polly", or person that didn't fall in line with their FUD craziness, would say, "We were wrong," I'd be so impressed, I'd probably fly the flag."

-- gilda (jess@listbot.com), March 25, 2000.

"Wrong" but hardly sorry for all the people he willfully mislead because he was wrong to, through and after 1/1/2000.

Now we get another book? "20-20 Hindsight"? New forum to sucker in the gullible who still want to believe this hack so far out of his expertise that he dared appear in front of the Senate and talk about impact on civilians 7 months before an event?

Humpty failed. Yourdon's pleadings to find Y2k failures on his list so he could play "expert witness" failed (lack of serious problems). Now he shifts gears again and dedicates a web site forum to "Hindsight". He can't be real.

"Deja Vu" was Yourdon's long winded defense of Y2k as computer software projects.

Now in a slip of memory, he seems to have forgotten its Arg[] because he now wants to apply the lessons of Y2k from Y2k back to "Software Projects". That frankly is more proof that Yourdon is not only the head fear monger of Y2k with the deplorable Gary North but simply an "Intellectual Weasel" and rest assured his Peers in I.T. will remember.

Yourdon may think that only his C.W. articles were read by the trade. The fact is many of the I.T. and Y2k Project mgrs. know very well everything he was saying about them on the MIT forum TB2000 First Ed. and even now. After "Death March" and "Rise and Resurrection" he had lost a lot of followers who realized that Yourdon was merely a shadow of the 1970s. His Y2k "work" was something else to them.

The word for that is "disgraceful" because they all knew Yourdon had to know that most Y2k work was progressing well. Yourdon even stated that "my analysis shows that 93% of Mission Critical software will be ready by 1/1/2000".

Few will forget the "I know what I know" lines about lynching every Politician and burning every programmer at the stake. http://www.yourdon.com/books/y2k2020/25.iknow.html

Even in his latest he refers to coverups, Oil industry examples that may or may not be Y2k related (he offers not a shred of proof).

And we now get a NEW BOOK IN THE WORKS with a NEW FORUM on yet another venue? That makes five. This one he calls Ed Yourdon's Y2k Fans Discussion Forum. (Coolboard) http://www.coolboard.com/boardshow.cfm/mb=827429801892357

More exposure to the Bots with a new set of Meta keys? More traffic for what? To answer the questions or sell books? (See K. Decker's comments at the end about Yourdon being a good businessman who will write books, blah, blah).

Ed Yourdon's Y2k Fans Discussion Forum. Interesting collection of words. His fans or Y2k fans?

The real question as Flint and many others from Hoff to CPR to Andy Ray to his oown I.T. critics is "Why was Yourdon still so far in error about Y2k?"

My question is why did he willfully mislead so many others. Here you have the classic beating on the fear drum.

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001akr -- ______________________________________________________________________ _______________

Y2K Deja What??: http://www.sightings.com/ufo/y2kyour.htm

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Korean missionary in rural Thailand seeks Y2K info

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread ---------- Folks,

I received the following email message yesterday afternoon; any info that you could supply would be appreciated (his email address is peter96@ksc.th.com). ********************** "Dear Edward, We are Korean Missionary working here at KhonKaen which is located about 500 km northeast of Bangkok in Thailand. Regarding Y2K problem which seems to be so sophiscated issue to handle, and somehow we need to prepare, we would really appreciate you if you give us any advice about the followings. 1. What'll happen in the developing country like Thailand in which we're living, specially in a rural province like KhonKaen ? 2. What and how to prepare as missionary who is receiving money from Korea monthly basis ? 3. How can we help the local people to whom we are ministring ? 4. Is Y2K the problem that will take place only after 01.Jan,2000 ? or can happen anytime before that date ? 5. How much possible Is the nuclear war ? 6. It seems to us that people here in Thailand do not pay any attention to Y2K problem. After reading some articles of Y2K through the internet and talking over this with some Thais, most of them are saying "maipenrai" in Thai which means in English "No problem." Is it truly maipenrai ? If you were in our situation, how could you help these people ? Thanks for any help you can give Peter Kim's family ********************** I responded by asking him if he had access to the Web, as it seemed to me the best source of information would be various web sites. He responded thusly this morning: ********************** Dear Ed, Thanks for your immediate reply and concern. I fully understand how difficult for you to answer to each question in detail under this circumstances. Even though I am well aware of your hectic schedule, I am forced to request you to consolidate your information in an email message because I've already visited many web sites of Y2K issues which made me only more confused maybe due to language barrier. If you have time to do that, please do so. Even now in my desk are there more than 30 www sites of y2k issues. Thanks for your hospitality and kindness. Love in Christ. Peter Kim ********************** So I guess he has access to the "standard" Y2K sites. If anyone has info about the situation in Thailand, or the issues being faced in rural third-world countries, or guidelines for missionaries, etc., that might turn out to be most helpful. In any case, anything you can provide him would be appreciated.

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), October 16, 1999

Answers

Sorry about the formatting; here's a more legible version:

I received the following email message yesterday afternoon; any info that you could supply would be appreciated (his email address is peter96@ksc.th.com).

**********************

"Dear Edward,

We are Korean Missionary working here at KhonKaen which is located about 500 km northeast of Bangkok in Thailand. Regarding Y2K problem which seems to be so sophiscated issue to handle, and somehow we need to prepare, we would really appreciate you if you give us any advice about the followings.

1. What'll happen in the developing country like Thailand in which we're living, specially in a rural province like KhonKaen ? 2. What and how to prepare as missionary who is receiving money from Korea monthly basis ? 3. How can we help the local people to whom we are ministring ? 4. Is Y2K the problem that will take place only after 01.Jan,2000 ? or can happen anytime before that date ? 5. How much possible Is the nuclear war ? 6. It seems to us that people here in Thailand do not pay any attention to Y2K problem. After reading some articles of Y2K through the internet and talking over this with some Thais, most of them are saying "maipenrai" in Thai which means in English "No problem." Is it truly maipenrai ? If you were in our situation, how could you help these people ?

Thanks for any help you can give Peter Kim's family

**********************

I responded by asking him if he had access to the Web, as it seemed to me the best source of information would be various web sites. He responded thusly this morning:

**********************

Dear Ed, Thanks for your immediate reply and concern. I fully understand how difficult for you to answer to each question in detail under this circumstances. Even though I am well aware of your hectic schedule, I am forced to request you to consolidate your information in an email message because I've already visited many web sites of Y2K issues which made me only more confused maybe due to language barrier. If you have time to do that, please do so. Even now in my desk are there more than 30 www sites of y2k issues. Thanks for your hospitality and kindness. Love in Christ. Peter Kim

**********************

So I guess he has access to the "standard" Y2K sites. If anyone has info about the situation in Thailand, or the issues being faced in rural third-world countries, or guidelines for missionaries, etc., that might turn out to be most helpful. In any case, anything you can provide him would be appreciated.

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), October 16, 1999.

---------- Thailand is a beautiful,Buddhist country,I'll bet thos missionarys have a hard time getting people to convert to their zombie worshipping death cult.

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), October 16, 1999.

---------- Stan, send him your list.

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), October 16, 1999.

---------- Website of Y2K Info from Chinese Christian living in Malaysia. Hope this address comes out right...

http://207.82.250.251/cgi-bin/linkrd? _lang=&lah=94a1e54b384530c4bb23abf530b92cda&lat=940084863&hm___action= http%3a%2f%2fwww%2egeocities%2ecom%2fchingpin%2f

-- eubie (eubie@inChrist.com), October 16, 1999.

---------- Website of Y2K Info from Chinese Christian living in Malaysia. Hope this address comes out right...

http://www.geocities.com/chingpin/

-- eubie (eubie@inChrist.com), October 16, 1999.

---------- I attended a Y2K / business continuity conference in Bangkok in April that included presentations from the Thai electrical generating authority, the state petroleum authority, and a number of private sector organisations such as Royal Dutch Shell, British Airways, Unilever, etc.

The electrical & petroleum authorities both stated that they had been testing and remediating for some time {unfortunately, my conference notes are at the office so I cannot quote specific timeframes).

The multinationals were dealing with Y2K as part of what seemed to be serious, well-organized international programs.

My overall impression was that the local authorities were making progress, but that the financial crisis that started in 1997 was not making life easy for them. The recent slide of the Thai baht against the US dollar will not have helped either.

One of my biggest concerns would be money, as many of the Thai banks are in poor shape. If Peter can visit Bangkok, I'd recommend establishing an account with Citibank, as they are likely to be much better prepared for Y2K than the local banks. I would also suggest getting a few months extra cash wired to Thailand in advance.

In the 10+ years that I have lived in Asia, I have made more than 20 trips to Thailand for both business and pleasure. One of the things that will help the Thais get through Y2K is their nearly superhuman patience, which comes from long experience in dealing with a range of infrastructure-related problems. Charity is also a big part of the Thai culture (including public support for Buddist monks and Wats) which should be a plus.

Hope that this helps

-- Avalon (cdillon@hk.super.net), October 16, 1999.

---------- If he is so confused now, I hope he doesn't stumble onto this forum!! Can you imagine a non western person trying to figure this conglomerate of personalities, slang, sense of humor, etc,. out? God forbid. Taz

-- Taz (Taz@aol.com), October 16, 1999.

---------- http://www.insidechina.com/y2k/

-- spider (spider0@usa.net), October 16, 1999.

---------- According to a June listing of Global National Y2K Coordinators, the coordinator for Thailand is Dr. Kanchit Malaivongs. The coordinator for the Republic of Korea is Chongsang Yu. (Presumably the coordinator for Korea could be most helpful since he might be able to provide preparedness information in Korean.)

The International Y2K Cooperation Center (IY2KCC) should be able to supply e-mail addresses for these two coordinators. Two points of contact there are Lisa Pellegrin at and Art Warman at . The missionary can also check out the IY2KCC's website at http://www.iy2kcc.org. Y2K websites for each of the countries might also be found at the IY2KCC's website.

I will send similar information to the missionary who made the request and to the two persons mentioned at IY2KCC.

I hope this helps.

-- Paula Gordon (pgordon@erols.com), October 16, 1999.

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001akl -- ______________________________________________________________________ _______________

Y2K Deja What??: http://www.sightings.com/ufo/y2kyour.htm _

BIG DOG smears HOFFMEISTER---Time for an apology ???

Big Dog,

I find it very funny that you rant and rave about Hoffmeister and his phoney email address while continually calling for an apology.

When was freedom of speech in this county abolished? This is a public forum. I have seen people called assholes, morons and every other cussword in the book. Did you call for their apologies? If you did, I must have missed it.

Please publish your real email address so we can see what a Big Dog you really are?

-- (Phoney@ddress.com), October 16, 1999

Answers

Is this kinda like:

"sticks and stones may break my bones but words will never hurt me?"

It ain't recess is it?

Children, children.

-- no talking please (breadlines@soupkitchen.gov), October 16, 1999.

---------- I've emailed BigDog at his posted address, he wrote back, apparently it is a real email. Just send him an email?

-- Helium (Heliumavid@yahoo.com), October 16, 1999.

---------- And who are you?

The thread about Hoffmeister is quite specific. This fictitious person has made libelous charges against a REAL person. In my opinion, those charges are baseless.

Either Yourdon is a coward and snake or Hoffmeister is. There is no middle ground on this one. Let people who read make up their minds.

Calling someone an asshole is not the same as libeling them.

My email is real. Yours isn't. I have been in personal contact with dozens of regulars from this forum. Have you?

Right. Nor has Hoffmeister. BTW, perhaps you ARE Hoffmeister? Probably so.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), October 16, 1999.

---------- Big Dog,

I think calling someone an asshole is libel only, if in fact, they are not an asshole. Which might be a tough case to prove in court. Besides who wants to sit there while all ones' co-workers and ex- partners tromp through with testimony about the verity of ones' assholeness.

-- R (riversoma@aol.com), October 16, 1999.

---------- Big Dog:

You seem to be losing it a bit here.

[The thread about Hoffmeister is quite specific. This fictitious person has made libelous charges against a REAL person. In my opinion, those charges are baseless.]

Hoffmeister listed what Yourdon has unquestionably done. Not a baseless charge, a statement of verifiable fact. Hoffmeister then speculated that Yourdon's motivations for doing so were essentially similar to the motivation *anyone* would have for doing so -- to make money. Certainly you can speculate that Yourdon did these things out of sheer boredom or some other reason, but such speculation isn't libel.

[Either Yourdon is a coward and snake or Hoffmeister is. There is no middle ground on this one. Let people who read make up their minds.]

So a complex discussion is reduced to either/or extremes? Granted some of your intended audience is disposed to reduce any complex issue to pitch black or pure white, but you know better. For shame. Isn't it possible that Yourdon had multiple motivations, from earning a living to sounding a sincere warning? Isn't it possible that Yourdon's *effects* may not precisely match his original intentions? Declaring there's no middle ground doesn't remove such ground from reality, only from your assessment, largely invalidating that assessment. Think, man.

[Calling someone an asshole is not the same as libeling them.]

As a hair-splitter myself, I recognize legalistic weaseling when I see it. Calling someone an asshole simply reflects (perhaps willing) lack of thought. Speculating about the motivations of public persons is fair game. Otherwise, where were you when de Jager was being accused of "selling out"?

By all indications, what's bothering you is the sheer common sense and cogency of Hoffmeister's arguments. Focusing on Hoffmeisters anonymity rather than the arguments themselves is a transparent exercise in misdirection. Misinformation, anyone?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), October 16, 1999.

---------- There is no gray for Russ (aka Big Dog). Imagine the most dogmatic fundamentalist you've ever met... and just make the faith Y2K.

Heeeeeeere's, Big Dog.

Russ is incapable of apologizing for his attacks on Hoff and the other forum optimists. His faith will not allow it. For the same reason, Russ is incapable of seeing fault in Ed Yourdon. Yourdon has the Y2K version of papal infallability.

To Russ, the optimists are servants of Satan... any tactics are justified in battling these evil creatures. This is why he has been a eloquent, but nasty, debater during his time on the forum. Oh, in calm moments Russ can weave a beautiful story about Y2K. Get under his hackles, though, and he's a little Bantee rooster.

There are people one can take seriously on both sides of the Y2K debate. Hoff is one of them... and "Big Dog" has yet to effectively answer the "Hoff Challenge." There are reputable people who think Y2K will cause problems. Ed Yardeni is a good example. To the serious pessimists, however, Yardeni just isn't gloomy enough...

As an aside, I am seeing the birth of a new "Russ" argument. The "thousand cuts" argument just isn't enough, so we have the "only a few sacred IT types understand Y2K." OK. It's a recycled argument, but you'll see it again... and again.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), October 16, 1999.

---------- Big Dog:

I guess the question I'd like most answered is "Why are you even pursuing this?" In one thread you didn't notice that Hoff was the one being smeared, even though the title itself suggested it, just as the one you started later this week was designed with the same effect in mind; yet in another you felt that Hoff, et al were smearing Yourdon and took exception. If you're against smear campaigns, I would think you would be against ALL smear campaigns...not simply those of whom you agree. Personally, I'm against ALL of them, which is why I chose not to reply to yours against Hoff yesterday.

The anonymity question on this forum is a joke at best. I posted using my real E-mail address (and full name as part of same) for QUITE some time. Each morning I was met with spam from this action.......not from people on this forum, but from folks who scan forums looking for valid E-mail addresses. I HAVE received communication from Hoff, know who he is, etc.

Just for the record, I don't agree that Mr. Yourdon is responsible for folks deciding to over-prepare or "bug-out." I share that feeling for the others who have encouraged folks to over-prepare for an event that (IMO) has yet to prove to be devastating. In that same vein, however, I fail to see how discussions of successful remediation efforts or discussions of positive attempts at remediation somehow result in dissuading folks to prudently prepare.

In a nutshell, I've expressed my disappointment in you before, and I remain disappointed. Where others agree to disagree on the unfolding of Y2k, you take every opportunity to use language that you feel will "smear" the dissenter of YOUR unfolding and those with whom you share that philosophy.

-- Anita (notgiving@anymore.com), October 16, 1999.

---------- Flint..do you make your wife IRON THE SHEETS??????....WITH A CREASE IN THE MIDDLE????????? Have you thought of getting some psychiatric help for "middle of the road compulsiveness"? Do you divide the food on your plate into equal portions before eating?...start reading in the very middle of a book?.........rotate your tires every monday?....neatly refold your hankerchief...down the middle, of course, after using?...Step over or on every crack in the side walk? Do you ever listen or read yourself? You truly need some help, my friend. You have become obsessive to the point where you are destroying your value. Looking at both sides is an attribute,... but not when its compulsive behavior. Its like cleanliness...but when you have to wash your hands 200 times a day, the cleanliness is more dangerous than the dirt. In a nutshell (printed equally on each half) you are destroying any value to your message. It seems that the message is no longer important to you...just the division and remediation, or clarification, of the message. In otherwords, you have lost your originality/creativeness/free thinking to being JUST a technician.

Taz

-- Taz (Taz@aol.com), October 16, 1999.

---------- Flint probably likes to drive in the middle of the road at 80 Mph with no headlights on. Got to respect a man like that. Yep we do.

-- The Cat's Butt (catsbutt@umailme.com), October 16, 1999.

---------- Yeeee HHHHaaaaaawwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww

Here we go again....

More time wasting clatter...

-- no talking please (breadlines@soupkitchen.gov), October 16, 1999.

---------- Big Dog,

I bet you feel like a big man using a real e-mail address. We should rename this forum Big Dog 2000. We should hold a parade in Manhattan in you honor just for using a real e-mail address. Yep, the pope should cannonize you as a saint. We should bombard the news networks that they should break into the broadcasts with the important news that Big Dog uses a real e-mail address. Monday should be declared a National Holiday in your honor. Yep, you have replaced me as the cat's butt around here. Congratulate yourself, you've earned it.

You have motivated me to start using a real working e-mail address in my correspondence. I do hope to regain my title as the cat's butt around here, but I have to earn it, just as you have earned the right to the title.

:-)

-- The Cat's Butt (formerly) (catsbutt@umailme.com), October 16, 1999.

---------- Taz:

I guess some of us are natural partisan fans, and some of us are natural umpires. When the fix is in, the game suffers. Sorry.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), October 16, 1999.

---------- It's pretty simple, but apparently simplicity is a tough one for some people.

Hoffmeister has accused Yourdon of DELIBERATELY promoting FEAR in order to DELIBERATE promote his own profiteering from Y2K.

I see no evidence from the other thread that "Hoffmeister" denies this charge. Quite the opposite. He continues to defend it as stated. Flint and Decker also support it: they're just not as honest as Hoffmeister about it.

I am perfectly happy to leave the evaluation of the supposed merits of that charge and the people involved at this point in the hands of everyone who comes to this forum.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), October 16, 1999.

---------- Subject Lipton has been very consistant through out the course of y2k religious evolution. He attacks and smears anyone who is a perceived threat to the cult mind set. Thank you Russ, for being so consistent. My studies of you will gain me much notariety, and hopefully fame as well. A few factual points if I may,

1. Mr. Yourdon has indeed been a top promoter of fear, uncertainty and doubt. To his credit he relies on a differing order of the ingredients namely, doubt, uncertainty and then lets the fear come as a natural by-product. You only have to read a sampling of his numerous essays to plainly see that. As you say, it is indeed simple but lost on some.

2. Hoffmeister is hardly an anonymous individual.

And 3. (because you ARE so predictable!) No, I am not Hoffmiester.

-- Psych Major (psychob@b.le), October 16, 1999.

---------- BigDog- You can pick up this self-improvement book at Amazon.com. Hope it helps...

Chapter 4: Three steps to breaking your constant "whining" problem Chapter 7: Bulldog dreams - Chihuahua realities (How to recognize your true role and actual position in the pack) Chapter 9: Hoffmeister or HoffMASTER? (Learn why you need to recognize and accept your master's voice) (No. I'm not Hoffmeister either.)

-- CD (not@here.com), October 16, 1999.

---------- Hmmm... I don't agree with Hoff completely. I think Yourdon's trying to sell books, videos, etc., AND maintain enough credibility to work after the rollover. He could have put the fear of God into the Senate sub-committee... but he just asked for better information. From the TB 2000, to TB 2000 Revised and Updated, it has been a virtuoso performance. The "retirement" from Y2K was a nice touch. Ed is not pushing hard core "fear." He's just jacking up the anxiety level a few notches... enough to make money, but far short of aligning himself with the Big Dog movement.

Sorry, folks, but you can't have it both ways. The pessimists ream private firms and public agencies for "self reporting." They cry out for "independent, third party verification." When Yourdon serves as Y2K vendor AND Y2K reporter, an amazing blindness comes over the pessimists. "What conflict of interest," they ask. (laughter)

Personally, I take my hat off to Yourdon. He's a sharp businessman and he'll be writing books well into the next century. He'll not only claim to be right on Y2K (even if we dodge the "Beruit" bullet). He will also take credit (a la de Jager) for sounding the alarm. Who knows, he may be right to take some credit.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), October 16, 1999.

-- The Shadow (shadow@knows.com), March 25, 2000.

I wish Yourdon was running for president rather than the pond scum Bush/Gore. It would be nice to be able to vote for a man with genuine convictions and integrity.

-- Yourdon 2000 (@ .), March 25, 2000.

Interesting, No Spam. Thanks.

Some of us have been using THIS forum for the Y2k post-mortem, and it's unlikely that many would entertain the thought of posting on a coolboard forum entitled "Yourdon's Y2k fans". Marianne Michaels seems to be the only one to "bite" so far, but she has her own agenda in this regard.

I've already expressed my opinions of Ed and others who tried to "sell" folks on the doomsday scenario. IMO, there was ALREADY a predisposition toward distrust of government/corporations, and/or a predisposition to live a more self-reliant lifestyle. This "sell" appealed to "those of like mind."

Personally, I'm losing interest in discussing Y2k, or any OTHER topic wherein the predispositions of distrust set the emotional pace. Look at the discussions on the census, for instance. Folks WANT to believe that the government has just now produced a census that is asking for more information than the constitution requires. I presented on both the EZBOARD forum and THIS forum the census questions from 1850 onward. THIS forum resulted in ONE reply. The EZBOARD forum thread turned into a discussion of government employees.

In summary, I think Ed was incorrect in HIS appraisals because a) he used metrics to extrapolate on Y2k work, b) he had NO hands-on experience with Y2k, c) he had predispositions towards distrust of government/corporations, and d) he had predispositions towards a more self-reliant way of living. Extrapolating on b), it seems that he didn't even keep up with the progress made in remediation, perhaps because it interfered with c and d.

-- Anita (notgiving@anymore.thingee), March 25, 2000.

Trust in the "government/corporations" a few more years Anita. See where it gets you.

-- In (God@we.trust), March 25, 2000.

IN:

I suspect we'll reach the same road at the same time. Of course you may spend the few years beating a dead horse, while I spend those few years moving forward. Life IS what we make of it, ya know.

-- Anita (notgiving@anymore.thingee), March 25, 2000.

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

Anita, you got that one right!

I wonder how long it will take for Ed's cult Fans to "stuff the box" as it were, on his "coolboard" forum? (I think coolboard is appropriate for Ed--- he is off to the intellectual Siberia!)

Enjoy your "cool", EY! (And the realists were called "pollyanna" by these doomidiots?)

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

"I was wrong, but I really wasn't." - Ed "Don't talk to me about failed y2k predictions" Yourdon

-- Super Polly (FU_Q_Y2kfreaks@hotmail.com), March 25, 2000.

From some comments here, it seems some folks are implicitly claiming that their utter certainty last year (that Y2K problems would range from few to none) was based on technical expertise and thorough familiarity with all hardware and software systems worldwide and their many interdependencies. For some of these people, this claim may even be true. Good for them.

The rest of us, having no such insider knowledge, and having also no reason to believe everything posted here (or anywhere else) was factual, had to make hard decisions without such certainty. Among this group estimates varied widely both as to the level of disruption to expect and the appropriate level of preparation, taking available resources into account.

It seems churlish to dodge responsibility for one's own decisions by saying now that "the devil made me do it." Gary North didn't make me do anything. Ed Yourdon didn't make me do anything. Neither did Mark Frautschi, Rick Cowles, Paula Gordon, Sen. Bennett, or Cong. Horn.

What these people did do was to bring the possible problems to my attention. Every one of them stressed the uncertainties involved, and the need to make one's own decisions. I became aware of Gary North's extreme bias early in the game, and realized that caution was advisable.

In the end there's only one prep item that I have no use for, namely 2- 200 gallon water bags. The Berkefeld filter is in constant use. My Baygen radio came in very handy during a 3-day power outage here following a severe ice storm. We're working through the food stores, nothing there we don't normally consume.

The only person inside your head is yourself. Nobody makes your muscles move but yourself. Those who feel they've jumped through someone else's hoop should ask themselves why they did so.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), March 25, 2000.

Yourdon for President?

Why not? of Gary North's new nation dedicated to all the fine principles Herr North has advocated for years.

Poor Ed would only be a puppet Pres. but he has proven that he can mouth most of North's thoughts quite well about the collapse because of Y2k.

They should both go with Jim Lord to Tonga and ask for some land. Lord could become the Minister of Defense. Hyatt could go along to help them become "self reliant" and Gary's protege' "Dear Karen" could take care of the Cooking and all those wimmen folk thangs.

If they start now, they could declare their Nation ready by October 31st, Garee's most favorite day.

-- The Shadow (shadow@knows.com), March 25, 2000.

Hmmmmm....

January - Power is on, NY looks like NY, "WHEN IS YOURDON GONNA SAY HE WUZ WRONG AND APOLOGIZE?"

February - "WHEN IS YOURDON GONNA SAY HE WUZ WRONG AND APOLOGIZE?"

Feb 29 - Everything runs OK, (mostly) and there are only about 30,000 documented Y2K failures and glitches, "WHEN IS YOURDON GONNA SAY HE WUZ WRONG AND APOLOGIZE?"

March - There are only about 35,000 documented failures, "WHEN IS YOURDON GONNA SAY HE WUZ WR - oh, well, lemme read it..... WHEN IS YOURDON GONNA SAY HE WUZ WRONG AND APOLOGIZE? AND BE SINCERE."

What exactly would satisfy you, Shadow? Perhaps a public Pillorying??

Besides, what on earth (or in my Starlanes) has that long, reprinted cut'n paste thread of drivel have to do with a man, being a MAN and standing up to admit he was wrong??

Most of that was OTHER PEOPLE, who are answerable on their OWN, and not on Ed.

ZOOKS!!! Some folk are NEVER satisfied. GIVE US WHAT WE ASKED FOR, oh yeah well WE DIDN'T ASK FOR ENOUGH!! GIVE US MORE!!!!

Take yer damned pound of flesh, but you can't take any blood.

(loosely Wm. Shakespear.... Merchant of Venice)

Joss

-- Joss Metadi (warhammer@Pride.of.Mandeyne), March 25, 2000.

A good thread with all points of view on Ed Yourdon can be found at http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=002mDC . 'On Yourdon.'

-- (y2k@rchiv.er), March 25, 2000.

No spam:

I took the initiative to post the thread presented here to the EZBOARD forum. It's important to let folks there know that the Y2k aftermath discussion has moved. I don't understand why Ed didn't present this there.

-- Anita (notgiving@anymore.thingee), March 25, 2000.

Anita the reason Ed didn't present it here, is because he couldn't censor posts he or his toadies disliked. I'm glad he admitted he was wrong. That's a bitter, but necessary first step. But anyone who has censor mania, especially a writer, has lost all credibility with me.

Tom, I made my own decisions too, but I was certainly influenced by Yourdon, DeJaeger and Hyatt. Those who predicted a 10, in the surety of their knowledge, do bear a little responsibility for influencing other people, especially when they didn't know what they were talking about.

I'll never be desperate enough to post on EZ board.

-- gilda (jess@listbot.com), March 25, 2000.

Carey and anyone who repeats the same nonsense that he made his own decisions is operating in denial. Its litte different than those who denied that EY was in it for the money by saying that "I didn't buy the book" or "I didn't stock months of food or buy gold coins". No, they merely supported the growth of the intolerance to a point of bigotry.

Carey made his own mind up independent of what? The screed of the doomers and the mental Berlin Wall set up by the TB I online screamers at anyone who dared question the "beliefs". "Off with their heads" in the Reign of Terror in France 1791 on became "delete, delete, delete" in 1999.

WRONG, WRONG, WRONG. THEY DID MAKE YOU "DO SOMETHING".

You became as did all others to some degree a bunch of Y2k BIGOTS unable to tolerate even the presence of anyone who dared disagree with you or the Sainted Yourdon who used censorship and P.R. cheap tricks through 1/1/2000.

BIGOTS. Think about it. What differentiates you from any others "intolerant" of other views??

Name it? What makes you different from a common hate or race or gay BIGOT?

It seems churlish to dodge responsibility for one's own decisions by saying now that "the devil made me do it." Gary North didn't make me do anything. Ed Yourdon didn't make me do anything. Neither did Mark Frautschi, Rick Cowles, Paula Gordon, Sen. Bennett, or Cong. Horn.

What these people did do was to bring the possible problems to my attention. Every one of them stressed the uncertainties involved, and the need to make one's own decisions. I became aware of Gary North's extreme bias early in the game, and realized that caution was advisable.

BULL. You saw through a prism of the filters that were used on you by the above. Even Bennett was highly influenced even though he was 2 to 4 levels removed. His aides would pick up all the doom messages and the messages did not get through until Spring, 1999 that things would be a 3 day storm or less.

Still you people would not listen. You drove away as heretics any who dared question your opinion.

By Fall, 1999 you were nothing more or less than Y2k BIGOTS refusing to listen to anyone.

Deny it all you want and pretend to yourselves that that was what happened but then go ask all the people you know that you irritated, isolated and alienated yourselves from to listen to the crap from people like "R. C. " and the rest of the Fruit Loops who kept you ever so happy feeding your Y2k BIGOTRY.

WRONG, WRONG, WRONG. THEY DID MAKE YOU "DO SOMETHING".

You became as did all others to some degree a bunch of Y2k BIGOTS unable to tolerate even the presence of anyone who dared disagree with you or the Sainted Yourdon who used censorship and P.R. cheap tricks through 1/1/2000.

BIGOTS. Think about it. What differentiates you from any others "intolerant" of other views??

Name it? What makes you different from a common hate or race or gay BIGOT?

It seems churlish to dodge responsibility for one's own decisions by saying now that "the devil made me do it." Gary North didn't make me do anything. Ed Yourdon didn't make me do anything. Neither did Mark Frautschi, Rick Cowles, Paula Gordon, Sen. Bennett, or Cong. Horn.

What these people did do was to bring the possible problems to my attention. Every one of them stressed the uncertainties involved, and the need to make one's own decisions. I became aware of Gary North's extreme bias early in the game, and realized that caution was advisable.

BULL. You saw through a prism of the filters that were used on you by the above. Even Bennett was highly influenced even though he was 2 to 4 levels removed. His aides would pick up all the doom messages and the messages did not get through until Spring, 1999 that things would be a 3 day storm or less.

Still you people would not listen. You drove away as heretics any who dared question your opinion.

By Fall, 1999 you were nothing more or less than Y2k BIGOTS refusing to listen to anyone.

Deny it all you want and pretend to yourselves that that was what happened but then go ask all the people you know that you irritated, isolated and alienated yourselves from to listen to the crap from people like "R. C. " and the rest of the Fruit Loops who kept you ever so happy feeding your Y2k BIGOTRY.

-- The Shadow (shadow@knows.com), March 25, 2000.

Shadow,

There are thousands of Tom Carey personalities reading this forum on a regular basis. Count me among his number. Most reading this forum do NOT post here as I seldom do. If I am to be called a y2k bigot, what else is new? Intolerance for others is certainly NOT a virtue on these forums.

Tommy

-- Tommy Rogers (Been there@Just a Thought.com), March 25, 2000.

I'll give this to Ed... he recycles. His "new" book is really his collection of Y2K essays from 1999. And we're supposed to believe his insight into Y2K because....? (chuckle)

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), March 26, 2000.

Oh, Yourdon, I love your apology. You are fabulous, the way you write a big book and then try to back off. I like your Time Bomb 2000 book very much. It is the best book on my shelf...FOR ME TO POOP ON!

-- Triumph, the insult comic dog (Forme@poopon.com), March 26, 2000.

Link

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/daily/feb99/y2k24.htm

The interdependent nature of technology systems makes the severity of possible disruptions difficult to predict.

-- (y2k@history.buff), March 26, 2000.

Typical Doomer SPIN: take old article from long before 1/1/2000 to justify some point.

ARTICLE IS OVER A YEAR OLD !!!!

Senate Study: Y2K Risks Are Widespread By Stephen Barr Washington Post Staff Writer Wednesday, February 24, 1999; Page A1

A report on the Year 2000 computer problem prepared by a special Senate panel warns that a number of foreign countries and U.S. economic sectors, especially the health care industry, appear at significant risk for technological failures and business disruptions.

The report, scheduled for release this week by Sens. Robert F. Bennett (R-Utah) and Christopher J. Dodd (D-Conn.), includes a letter to Senate colleagues describing the problem of computers' ability to recognize dates starting on Jan. 1, 2000, popularly known as Y2K, as a "worldwide crisis" and as "one of the most serious and potentially devastating events this nation has ever encountered."

-- Anon (anon@anon.anon), May 30, 2000.