Before we all get overheated, let's look at the credible threat that China presents to the US.

The following is from http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/index.html

China only has one missile currently operational that's capable of reaching the US, the CSS-4 (DF-5 in Chinese . There is currently some dispute among military analysts about the numbers in service with the range being from 4 to 20. These missiles are capable of carring a warhead in the 25-50 megaton range.

The Chinese air force has no aircraft capable of carrying a nuclear weapon to the US.

The Chinese navy has no aircraft carriers. It has one ballistic missile submarine that is usually in port due to mechanical breakdowns in its nuclear reactor. It is probably the noisiest nuke sub in existence. Assuming it got underway and presented a threat it could be quickly disposed of by the US Navy.

So, the real threat is up to 20 missiles that could reach the US and the remote chance one unreliable ballistic missile submarine could get to within 1000 miles offshore without being detected and fire its 16 missiles.

Against this, you have the massive retaliatory strength of the US ballistic missile system, nuclear bombers, 20-30 ballistic missile subs at sea, and 9 aircraft carriers each carrying 60-70 aircraft capable of delivering nuclear weapons, disregarding any additional damage that would inflicted on China by Taiwan, which is also rumored to have tactical nuclear weapons.

The Chinese might be mad but they're not crazy.

-- Jim Cooke (JJCooke@yahoo.com), March 20, 2000

Answers

Jim:

I usually agree with your posts; but this time I can't agree. Based on the information that I have, I believe that you have, at this time, overestimated the military threat from China. Of course, I have no way to confirm my information; so you could be correct.

Best wishes,,,,

Z

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), March 20, 2000.

The March run of the McAlvany Intelligence Report has a brief that states as following. "Last year in a training exercise in the Negev desert between Israeli Air Force F-16 pilots and U.S. Navy pilots from the U.S.S. Theodore roosevelt, Israeli Air Force pilots, according to the Jerusalem Post, "shot down 220 navy F-14s and F-18s while only "losing 20 F-16s. In one exercise, the paper said, the reported kill ratio was 40:1 in the Israelis' favor, an outcome so stunning, according to an officer quoted by the Post, the results of the Post, the results weren't made public to save the reputations of U.S. Navy pilots."

Take that for what its worth, if anything. Can anyone can post the actual article and verify its truth. If so, then it is indeed bad news for our pilots. Pray for those boys who put their life on the line for our safety. They have aging equipment and hurting morale.

By the way, Mosco is selling the Su-37 to the Chinese government. That bird is their best and most technologically advanced.

-- trafficjam (road@construction.ahead), March 20, 2000.

Jim,

So....20+16=36 50 megaton nukes, along with submarine and US-designed missiles for delivery ....is supposed to make me sleep better? Hardly.

Furthermore, war with China would probably quickly expand into war on at least two additional fronts: the Mideast (Iran would ally with China) and Korea (The North would seize the opportunity to invade the South). The US military (which after Kosovo has essentially zero sea launched cruise missiles in its arsenal) would not be able to manage that scale of conflict, and our military planners know it. Apparently you don't.

Let us hope what is going on is just posturing for pecking order in the NWO/WTO, and that the "independence issue" will be resolved diplomatically.

-- Long Dong 2 (@ .), March 20, 2000.

The McElvaney Intelligence Report?

That is a contradiction in terms and/or an oxymoron. However, in the unlikely possibility that this time he is correct for a change, the solution to this Chinese problem is obvious.

Send the Israelis off to the Orient for a week or two. They should love it. I'm told all the Chinese restaurants in NYC are utterly dependent upon the Jewish residents of the NY area.

-- The Shadow (shadow@knows.com), March 20, 2000.

long dong:

Furthermore, war with China would probably quickly expand into war on at least two additional fronts: the Mideast (Iran would ally with China) and Korea (The North would seize the opportunity to invade the South). The US military (which after Kosovo has essentially zero sea launched cruise missiles in its arsenal) would not be able to manage that scale of conflict, and our military planners know it. Apparently you don't.

This is the kind of long string of what ifs? that I read last year concerning Y2K. Didn't buy them then; don't buy them now.

Don't know how far you go back? I remember the wheeling out of "military experts" who said that Iraq had a a major military and how losses would be great. Then Serbia; same group of experts said that Serbia wasn't Iraq. Losses would be great. Now, I hear the same group [I even recognize some names] saying the same about China. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me forever; shame on all of us.

This argument is Y2K all over again.

Best wish

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), March 20, 2000.

What are the chances of China using the so-called 'suitcase bombs?'

I don't recall hearing or reading anything about them having access to them, but what if?

Is there a possibility,even if remote?

-- luggage handler (s@mso.nite), March 20, 2000.

Lets take these one at a time.....

Traffic,

You mean the Don McAlvany of Y2K, Christian Reconstruction and Gold Bug fame? The guy who sells his newsletter based on the level of fear he can generate? The same McAlvany who repeated the ridiculous story about the Chinese jets flying off to bomb Taiwan this morning? The same McAlvany who believes that WorldNetDaily and NewsMax are reliable news sources? I've never read any reports about the US Navy doing this poorly against any opponent. Since McAlvany, as usual, offers no way to verify his story, I don't know what else to say.

Everything I've read says the Chinese are buying SU-27's - I've never heard of an SU-37. They are fine aircraft but they are strictly air defense fighters and have no bearing on whether China can attack the US. In addition, the last time the Chinese were involved in air to air combat was against Vietnam in 1979-80 and they were soundly thrashed. US Air Force, Navy, and Marine aircraft are superior to anything the Chinese can field and our pilots, regardless of any perceived morale problem, are still the best in the world.

Long,

"along with submarine and US-designed missiles for delivery"...what submarine missiles are you talking about? What US designed missilies are you talking about? The only submarine launched missiles other than the ballistic sub I've already noted, are Eagle Strike missiles, a very dated design similar to but much less capable to Sub Harpoon's. They have a range of less than 200 miles and are easily defeated by US anti-missile systems.

Your evaluation of the US military's ability to manage conflicts is much more pessimistic than mine. As Z has already noted, we've heard the same thing before and it has proved to be incorrect. Like you, I hope we don't have to find out that diplomacy will prevail.

Luggage, I guess there are always remote possibilities for almost everything including the sun not coming up tomorrow. I refuse to worry about them until they become a little less remote.

Z, you are such a scamp :^)

-- Jim Cooke (JJCooke@yahoo.com), March 20, 2000.

And, I meant to say "Like you, I hope we don't have to find out AND that diplomacy will prevail."

-- Jim Cooke (JJCooke@yahoo.com), March 20, 2000.

Yessirreee...those Chinamen might kill millions of their own citizens, but they wouldn't dare hurt an American! No sir ree bob...no way

-- The Year 1999 + seven months (@ .), March 20, 2000.

I think we should start by sending in a surgical strike on their missiles silos by using the stealth fighters. I am sure US Satellites have photos of where the Chinese missiles are located. For the Nuclear Submarine, the US submarines can located quickly and neutralize it so fast that the Chinese sailors will not know they are being hunt. For the American plane on the Island send in the Navy Seals and blow it up or use a curise missile to destroy it.

With out a nuclear arsenal China have no hand in the game and they will have to fold. For other countries that protest against the US, we will just have to cut economic ties with that country.

-- hotboykiller (hotboykiller@hotmail.com), April 08, 2001.

I think we should start by sending in a surgical strike on their missiles silos by using the stealth fighters. I am sure US Satellites have photos of where the Chinese missiles are located. For the Nuclear Submarine, the US submarines can located quickly and neutralize it so fast that the Chinese sailors will not know they were being hunt. For the American plane on the island send in the Navy Seals and blow it up or use a curise missile to destroy it.

With out a nuclear arsenal China have no hand in the game and they will have to fold. For other countries that protest against the US, we will just have to cut economic ties with those countries.

-- hotboykiller (hotboykiller@hotmail.com), April 08, 2001.

OUr chinese missile can reach every where of US. You all will be bombed to be dusty. and all US people become china people,slave.

-- Chinese missile (lfidlkd@yahoo.com), July 15, 2002.