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Vacation costs to rise at pumps; Gas prices to make 2000 road trips costly

By Chris Vaughn Star-Telegram Staff Writer

FORT WORTH -- If Bob Conley drove anything larger than his minivan, his family wouldn't be going anywhere for spring break next week.

But a week off is hard to ignore, as is the thought of spending a few days in the cool weatherof western Pennsylvania. So Conley, a Fort Worth public school teacher, will pony up $100 more on gasoline than he normally does, thanks to soaring prices.

And he will feel the pinch.

"It definitely makes a difference on what we're going to be doing there," he said. "We're not going to have the money to do a lot of extra things."

Students and their parents emptying North Texas schools and universities for spring break this month will find gas prices across the state averaging 50 cents a gallon higher than last year at this time.

The annual pilgrimage to South Padre Island will cost almost $31 more this year, for example, for students driving a Chevrolet Suburban round- trip. A year ago, regular unleaded averaged 88.08 cents statewide. This year, the price had climbed to $1.3855 as of March 6, according to the Oil Price Information Service.

But although Texans may be grumbling about the rising costs, they don't appear to be changing too many travel plans.

"They're still traveling, even with the price of gas this high," said Dorothy Brodie, a supervisor at AAA auto club on South Hulen Street in Fort Worth.

The Texas Department of Economic Development, Department of Transportation and Department of Public Safety don't track spring break- related travel. But every year, the Alamo and Riverwalk in San Antonio, the Fort Worth Stockyards, Six Flags Over Texas and Padre Island rank among the top annual attractions in the state.

Brodie said her office traffic has picked up considerably of late, particularly teen-agers and young people headed to ski resorts and beaches, and parents with young children bound for Disneyland.

Spring is also typically busy, with bird-watchers on the Gulf Coast and wildflower excursions in the Hill Country.

Garth Ramsey, a sophomore at Texas Christian University, is driving to northern New Mexico next week for rock climbing with a friend.

He, too, thought about fuel prices, but that pain is eased by his mode of transportation -- an efficient Japanese-made four-cylinder that he can fill up with a $10 bill.

"If it was just for a weekend, I wouldn't go," Ramsey said. "But for a whole week, it's worth it."

Conley, a history and geography teacher at North Side High School in Fort Worth, said a two-day driving trip through Pennsylvania normally costs him about $200 in gas. But he's figuring on spending $300 next week.

Unfortunately, that means members of the family won't be taking day trips to Cleveland or Philadelphia as they normally do.

"We're going to be staying in New Castle and doing local things," he said.

Those in the travel and tourism industry said surveys point to similar habits among drivers: They won't cancel driving vacations, even for high gasoline prices.

"What they do instead is look for ways to cut down on day-to-day fuel use," said Rose Rougeau, a AAA spokeswoman in Houston. "It's the total opposite of what happens with airfares. If airfares get too high, people will look for other ways."

Part of the explanation, Rougeau speculates, is the continued strength of the economy, which is different from during the 1970s and early 1980s when high gas prices were combined with recessions.

Officials at the state economic development office said travel inquiries are running at record levels this year, confirming their research results that fuel prices aren't always an indicator of travel.

"People look at the bottom line: `Am I going to cancel my entire vacation over $5 or $10?' " said Tim Fennell, a spokesman for the department in Austin. "The trip is usually more important than the price increases that we're seeing."

Some businesses, however, say they have evidence that high fuel prices might be keeping some people home.

Business at the Tire Factory Outlet on West Berry Street typically hums the week before spring break in Fort Worth, according to manager George Salinas.

"We haven't been nearly as busy as we were last year, even with students, who normally come in here for service before they go home," he said. "It's been kind of weird."

Salinas understands why some people might want to hang around Fort Worth this year. He just returned from Lubbock.

"I paid $1.69 a gallon" in a small town on Interstate 20, he said. "I was 100 miles from Lubbock and 100 miles from Abilene. I had to."

) 2000 Star-Telegram, Fort Worth, Texas

http://www.star-telegram.com/news/doc/1047/1:METRO51/1:METRO510309100.html

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-- (Dee360Degree@aol.com), March 10, 2000

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More Texas--Dallas/Ft.Worth

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Few leaving life in the gas lane

Higher prices haven't brought drivers down to sacrifices of '70s

03/10/2000

By Brooks Egerton / The Dallas Morning News

Everybody talks about the weather, as the old saying goes, but nobody does anything about it.

The same might almost be said these days for gasoline prices, which have jumped about 50 percent over the last year and show as much sign of slowing down as a runaway train.

Sure, some motorists shop around a little more to save a few cents a gallon, but few are altering basic habits. They still tend to commute historically long distances alone, many in gas-guzzling pickups and sport-utility vehicles; they still plan to drive hundreds of miles on vacation.

Trade in for fuel efficiency? "It's not a consideration at all," social worker Margaret Haynes said Thursday, filling up her SUV at a discount station near Dallas Love Field.

With unemployment and inflation low and luxury spending high, such comments are common. Gas, after all, takes a smaller share of most folks' pay than it did in the bad old days.

For many, experts say, that would be true even if self-serve regular rises from the current average of $1.50 a gallon to $2. The American Automobile Association predicts such a scenario by summer, while the U.S. Energy Department's forecast is a little lower.

To cope, "I'd give up Diet Coke," said Mary Smith, refueling an SUV near Ms. Haynes. Or maybe take "one less horseback riding lesson."

What would it take to shape Americans' behavior the way the Energy Crisis of the 1970s did, to push large numbers toward smaller vehicles or carpools or buses?

"Consumers have to view this as a permanent kind of change," said Texas A&M economics professor Jim Griffin, who has been studying the subject for a quarter-century.

History teaches the opposite lesson: The lines and shortages of the '70s didn't last. Gas has been as high as it is now and come down; it was cheaper than bottled water just two years ago.

Then it was oil producers, not users, who were squawking about how the sky was falling. And the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries got serious about cutting supply.

"They've gotten their act together to the detriment of the American consumer," Dr. Griffin said. "They've jacked prices up, and there's been very little reduction in demand."

The result is billions of dollars in added revenue for OPEC countries. Yet they've never managed to cooperate indefinitely, the professor noted. Often someone tries to cash in by cheating on production quotas; some are already signaling openly, in advance of a March 27 OPEC meeting, that they want to pump more crude.

"I think they know that if they get too greedy, it's going to cost them in the long run," Dr. Griffin said.

Especially in developing countries, higher prices could stall the economic growth that fuels demand for fuel. U.S. residents could switch to smaller cars, as they did in the '70s.

For now, however, most drivers grudgingly play wait and see.

Rose Rougeau, a spokeswoman for AAA Texas, hears from some travelers who are contemplating somewhat shorter driving trips this summer. Or they ask which states have the highest gas taxes and chart their courses accordingly.

On a personal front, "I wanted to buy an SUV," the Honda driver said. "Maybe I'll hold off."

Prices approaching $2 a gallon would have to hold for another six months or more before many people started trading in, Dr. Griffin said.

That, he said, would be the primary form of consumer reaction. Suburban sprawl might slow a bit, he suggested. And there might be some shift to mass transit in urban areas such as Dallas, which is aggressively expanding its light-rail system.

Meanwhile, life change is coming primarily to those who drive for a living. And they do have options, at least as long as the boom times last.

"I'm looking for another job," said Masoud "Max" Behbahani , who delivers for Domino's Pizza in Addison and must cover his own gas costs. "We cannot survive with this kind of minimum wage."

In the trucking world, "I know independent contractors who are having to sell their rigs or let them be foreclosed on," said Bill Webb, president and chief executive of the Texas Motor Transportation Association.

But many will find work driving for companies, he said. And it won't lead to any major change in the way freight moves, he added.

"This is a flush out," he said. "It's not going to make any fundamental changes in our industry."

http://dallasnews.com/metro/46135_BEHAVIOR10.html

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-- Dee360Degree (Dee360Degree@aol.com), March 10, 2000.