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Author Comment SANman2000 Moderator (3/1/00 3:28:33 pm) Reply A MUST See Graph! These Guys Look Right On Target ----------------------------------------------------------------------

I hope everyone still has all those prep's!

"For Educational Purposes"

Looks like these guys are right on target. I am surprised to see a late summer or fall peak.

www.ciaosystems.com/...h020.jpg

Magnitude of "Actual" Timeframe is dependant on future system failures or the lack of. Either way you view this graph, Y2K Related System Failures will peak during the summer or fall season of this year.

www.ciaosystems.com/...tral.htm

Dorrit Administrator (3/1/00 5:11:18 pm) Reply Re: A MUST See Graph! These Guys Look Right On Target ----------------------------------------------------------------------

SANman, you get an A++ for this one!!

Hang on to those preps is right! Interesting to note they see the embedded problems will peak then too, I think you are right these guys may just know their beans. Be sure to keep track of them and keep us posted! Non magna loquimur, sed vivimus - We do not talk great things, but we live them!

SANman2000 Moderator (3/1/00 8:24:20 pm) Reply Re: A MUST See Graph! These Guys Look Right On Target ----------------------------------------------------------------------

Dorrit,

What I can not figure is the late month dates? What do they know? That we do not? We have tracked this for to long. Ya Know. WELL, I guess, lets see if they keep on target here? I was really, wanting to start down sizing. BUT, NO. NOW, I have wait until late summer or fall. SANman, "Gone Fishin"

BVJ Global user (3/1/00 9:57:26 pm) Reply A Must See Graph! These Guys Look Right on Target ----------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't understand? The black part of the graph is sourced from the Senate Committee, yet there is another thread today announcing that Senator Bennett is closing down the Year 2000 Committee, declaring Y2K officially dead. What gives?

JackW Global user (3/2/00 1:24:25 am) Reply Glitch Central Graphs ----------------------------------------------------------------------

I've been in touch, via e-mail with the guy, Nathan (don't know whether that's his first or last name), who runs Glitch Central.

Loosely, this is the way he compiles data: I guess much of it is from e-mail feedback recounting personal experiences, whistle-blower information, and, he says, a number of family members and friends working in IT. So, much of it is of the rumor-type information, though he's got everything carefully weighted. Example: a single piece of unverified data is divisible by 13, up to unverified with 4-way substantiation divisible by 1.5, etc. A very elaborately worked out charting system. He only prints those items that are published elsewhere, and claims that a rough multiple of 20 applies. (i.e. 10 published items would equate to some 200 actual, similar, occurrences.)

I was particularly fascinated by this new graph because his projections correspond so closely to my own thinking. All of last year, while others were buying generators, I was buying battery-operated fans (I now have 6). I've long been planning for the peak to hit about July. I see he's a little past my estimated time frame. Perhaps I should adjust, and extend, my preps a bit.

Dorrit Administrator (3/2/00 7:54:06 am) Reply Re: Glitch Central Graphs ----------------------------------------------------------------------

Thanks for the insight, Jack, that does help put it in perspective, and I'd say he has some pretty good perspective! Non magna loquimur, sed vivimus - We do not talk great things, but we live them!

Rich R Moderator (3/2/00 12:37:53 pm) Reply Re: Glitch Central Graphs ----------------------------------------------------------------------

I have dreaded a late summer/fall scenario since last year. Why? Because it's just enough time for everyone to get comfortable and use up their preps ("Oh, well, nothing happened."). On top of that, it's pretty much the end of the growing season, so those who might have started an "emergency garden" no longer can.

Rich

SANman2000 Moderator (3/2/00 9:08:33 pm) Reply Re: Glitch Central Graphs ----------------------------------------------------------------------

Jack & Rick,

Please give some insight here. Why did you guys forecast so far out? I have forecast Apr or May for a peak. My mind is starting to think about this very seriously. I have ideas here, but want to here from you first as to why you believe these late dates?

SANman, "Gone Fishin"

JackW Global user (3/2/00 11:23:48 pm) Reply Glitch Graphs ----------------------------------------------------------------------

I had some 10 reasons for figuring on July as my target month, SANman. But, to save time and space, I will boil it down to the biggest single reason, the fundamental essence of the whole thing.

It's the SUPPLY CHAIN.

From the distillation of so much I read last year, it seemed to come out in the wash that there could be about 3 categories of disaster that might occur on New Year's Day.

1. A 25% partial or temporary shutdown of the world's computers would be close to a Gary North Scenario, but not quite. No instant meltdown of the world's infrastructure, but a 60-90 day semi-normal supply chain "flow" before massive shutdowns.

2. A 15% partial or temporary shutdown, which the Gartner Group held as a possiblity for even some of the industrialized, advanced natons, would have added another 60-90 days to the supply chain's longevity.

3. A modest 5% partial or temporary shutdown would add still another 60-90 days to the supply chain "work through."

Viola! As I decided it would be a "modest" shutdown, when you add up 3 60-90 day supply chain intervals for shortages "work throughs," you come up with about mid-summer. Thus, July.

(The BITR's always proclaimed a light 1% shutdown. But, I never believed that. I always opted for the modest 5%--at the very minimum--and, it could yet prove to be worse.)

Consequently, because in the beginning so much of the low-profile failures can and are being covered up, the big thing I'm looking for these days are signs that the supply chain is being tested. So far, I've found a few. In mid-Feb. rumors that the Port of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil would have to delay soybean shipments to the U.S. 2 weeks due to "technical problems" sent the traders in the Chicago futures pits into a buying frenzy. Then, a week ago, I saw another sign See my post, "General Motors Closes 4 Car Mfg. Plants," in this forum.

A third sign could be the price and shortage of residential siding. This product hadn't moved in price hardly at all for the past 10 years. Now it has shot up 150% the past month, and a 30-60 day waiting list is in place, something that normally never occurs before summer.

All these signs are on schedule. I figured they would start appearing around late February, early March.

Thus, I am holding to my long-range plan calling for mid (maybe late) summer to be the big "crunch time" that so many were expecting in this January past.

SANman2000 Moderator (3/3/00 12:17:45 am) Reply Re: Glitch Graphs ----------------------------------------------------------------------

AAAAH Jack,

Your thoughts are very similar to mine except for the time frames (I think my thoughts might be wrong).

The famous JIT system (Just In Time). Hummm, My mind is spinning right now. So I might be a little out of focus and I will not go too far at this point. But, I am going to revisit the embedded chip thing one more time. I think I missed something here (is very simple). Thanks. I will be back to discuss. You BET! Thanks Jack.

You know what I am talking about (JIT), don't you....

SANman, "Gone Fishin"

Edited by SANman2000 at: 3/3/00 12:17:45 am

Riverwn Moderator (3/3/00 12:11:49 am) Reply Re: Glitch Graphs ----------------------------------------------------------------------

Isnt late summer what was predicted by analysts last year, when it came to lowering energy production--either from FOF or cascading oil events (which we see now). I remember they stated that energy usage is higher in summer than winter (as most people think).So failures would be more evident then.

Now add that to the oil situation worsening (production falling), oil/gas prices hiking, transportation dragging, supply prices escalating-passed on to us, the consumer, and shortages beginning-I can see a recipe for trouble. "Be the change in the world, you want to see." Gandhi

JackW Global user (3/3/00 12:31:28 am) Reply Glitch Graphs ----------------------------------------------------------------------

You're right, River. I didn't even enter the oil situation into my (general) supply chain equation, examples of which I cited above.

Oil is the BIG EXCEPTION to my modest 5% failures thinking. Here, the disaster scenario started shaping up fast. There were four explosions, fires, outages at U.S. refineries in the FIRST WEEK of Jan., and the situation has been degenerating ever since.

This disaster waiting to happen should, of course, speed up and intensify the whole supply chain breakdown.

Rich R Moderator (3/3/00 6:59:02 am) Reply Re: Glitch Graphs ----------------------------------------------------------------------

Sanman - I just sat down and thought, "What would be the worst possible time for troubles to hit?" "The end of the growing season" was my reply -- this would leave the most people in dire straits for the longest amount of time. Not at all scientific! And hopefully it is a prediction, because my predictions are usually 100% WRONG!

Rich

JackW Global user (3/3/00 2:05:54 pm) Reply Glitch Central Graphs ----------------------------------------------------------------------

I forgot to touch on the power generation portion of your comments, River. This time of year the utilities are only running at some 50% of capacity. So, there is quite a cushion against power shocks--sudden outages from any source.

BUT, say, for example, the recent Indian River Nuke Plant hot shutdown had occurred in July, when Con Edison would have had an approximate 95% drain on its capacity, OH, WHAT A DIFFERENCE. The Indian River facility provides 1/7th of Con Ed's total generating capacity. Which means that, if they were unable to quickly get make-up power from other regional grids (unlikely in mid-summer), New York City would have faced a potential blackout situation.

SANman2000 Moderator (3/4/00 1:54:17 am) Reply more ----------------------------------------------------------------------

Ya Know,

I keep thinking about this graph and how it relates to the embedded chips. As many know by now these chips have an internal clock. This clock is actually a counter, which increments by weeks. They count from 0 thru 1023 (thus 1024 weeks). The internal counter is set at zero on its manufacturing date. The first ones that completed through all 1024 weeks reset back to zero sometime last year around Oct.99? When this happened some GPS (2,000 users in Japan, a couple on the West Coast) users had problems. I guess one or two of the GPS Satellites had a problem.

So, if you count back from Oct.99? a 1024 weeks, that will be the year they were made. These chips did not appear all of a sudden everywhere in the market place. It happened over time. It probably took several months to get many of these chips out and for manufacturing to ramp up production.

So, I look at this graph and think about that peak time. It is several months after the first chips reset. As every week goes by, I suspect more and more of these chips are resetting back to zero (0000). Some maybe causing problems and some maybe not. It depends on how they are integrated into what type of application.

Now, I look at our famous JIT systems, that save corporations big bucks in not having large inventories. The supply chain if you will. Like you said Jack.

Do I need to go on .... It is just a thought.

Edited by SANman2000 at: 3/4/00 1:54:17 am

JackW Global user (3/3/00 9:47:56 pm) Reply Glitch Centrl Graphs ----------------------------------------------------------------------

That's right, SANman. The government kicked off this whole embedded chips era in the early 1980's with their satellite network. Commercial development followed. Figuring the usual lead-time for developemnt, 6-10 months, that would mean a lot of clock re-settings would be going on--NOW.

Hmmm! Something to ponder.

SANman2000 Moderator (3/4/00 2:06:35 pm) Reply Re: A MUST See Graph! These Guys Look Right On Target ---------------------------------------------------------------------

To the TOP. It's not done with yet! SANman, "Gone Fishin"

JackW Global user (3/5/00 3:18:57 pm) Reply Re: A MUST See Graph! These Guys Look Right On Target ----------------------------------------------------------------------

Termites.

Rich R Moderator (3/6/00 7:07:39 am) Reply Re: A MUST See Graph! These Guys Look Right On Target ----------------------------------------------------------------------

I want the names of those jerks! What kind of moron would write software for a system and not test at least the edges? (i.e., what happens when the counter rolls over to 0000?) How'd it get past QA?

Sanman - the 1024 number was for a specific chip. Many 8-bit micros have 16-bit (65535 max) counters, which if they are counting weeks, gives us 1260 years before problems show up.

All- Ya gotta get some info on micros! I work with them all day, every day, and if I showed this stuff to my co-workers, they'd ROFL fer shure!

Rich

Riverwn Moderator (3/6/00 7:37:17 am) Reply Re: A MUST See Graph! These Guys Look Right On Target ----------------------------------------------------------------------

Rich, that is what we have YOU for!... so educate us! "Be the change in the world, you want to see." Gandhi

Rich R Moderator (3/6/00 8:21:41 am) Reply Re: A MUST See Graph! These Guys Look Right On Target ----------------------------------------------------------------------

O.K., but what forum does it go under?

--Rich

Also, it'll take a while to write it up....

End.

-- Zdude (zdude777@hotmail.com), March 07, 2000

Answers

Sorry about the links not working try these:

Link #1

Link #2

-- Zdude (zdude777@hotmail.com), March 07, 2000.

What is this supposed to "prove"?

If the data in is "GIGO", (garbage in and garbage out), this amounts to fingerpainting or coloring in with Binney and Smith's finest Crayons. In a court of law, the Y2k Judge is getting ready to say, "case dismissed for lack of evidence".

This particular site traffics in "reports" from media and from "other sources". When you chase them down, you find out that the Widget Making Company in Duluth's time clock had to be reset and that took a matter of hours because Jed, the gate keeper had to find the key that opened the clock and it had been 7 years since he last used it.

I exaggerate but most get the point. Humans screwed up and Humans fixed Y2k just like they do every day. Those who don't understand the role of human fragility and weakness are directed to Gary's numerous essays on the Fall of Man.

1. The second curve on the glitch site shows the number of "actuals" is far less than the Senate Report. DUH!! What it shoud be "plotting" is the number of the unresolved breakdowns vs. the "time to fix" vs. the overall number of things that could break (remember the "billions and billions" of embedded systems ?).

Hoff, Poole and many more claimed before CDC, that the number of failures on any given day whether in software or embedded systems was substantial and yet somehow we recover every day. Nowhere is there a study that can show that the number of breakdowns from Y2k is substantially greater than what has happened since one Eve pushed an apple on her man Adam.

2. It is a misapplication to show the number of problems from Y2k origins in a cumulative fashion other than as a matter of historical note.

What counts is *the number of unresolved problems*. What is not fixed?

How many reports of these glitches when tracked contain statements that "the problem was resolved by staff in minutes (hours)?"

How many "Open Cases" of Y2k Glitches are there.

Last but not least, how in the world can anyone make a case for the "grand total of glitches" "causing" any cascading or domino effects **IF** the problems have been corrected?

Its time to move on from this sort of thinking which lead so many astray to begin with and all the rhetoric about the number of glitches so far denies one fact.

When I hit "submit" this comment will be posted to a forum on the internet where it can be read by people using functioning computers (or web tv even) and that plus the amount of food and clothing on retail shelves plus the number of cashed paychecks plus the number of *failed predictions made before 1/1/2000* should show once and for all that :

Its "BAU" business as usual (or as WW II people put it: SNAFU).

-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), March 07, 2000.

$35 a barrel oil is BAU?

-- BNAU (@ .), March 07, 2000.

Is 35$/bbl related to Y2K?

-- CJS (cjs@noemail.com), March 07, 2000.

I believe that oil was up around $40 a barrel around 1990 or so. Pehaps that was really the Y1.9K glitch, and not OPEC, and the government just hushed it up to prevent panic.

-- E. H. Porter (E.H. Porter@just wondering.about it), March 07, 2000.

O.K. it's not Y2k, it's computer glitches. Feel better.

Jacques Bernier Oil and glitches

Snipped from Kitco:

-------------------------------- "Date: Tue Mar 07 2000 15:50 Khan (Crude One and Y2k (Post on USA Gold Forum) ID#90199: Copyright ) 1999 Khan/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

MarkeTalk ( 3/7/2000; 11:22:14MDT - Msg ID:26486 ) Oil prices @ $33.75 The oil market continues its relentless move higher today, as light sweet crude just hit $33.75 per barrel. Today's Wall Street Journal, section C, carried a story about Norway and Nigeria unable to pump oil due to "computer glitches." Thus, the real Y2K story is and remains oil. Rumors are now circulating that Clinton will resort to rationing." --------------------------------------

Rumor mungerings! There ought to be a law!

JB

http://www.remarq.com/read/sftwry2k/qANU14WPBkOgC_aXd#LR

-- - (x@xxx.com), March 07, 2000.

(snip)

Disruptions in Nigerian and North Sea oil production have also added to the day's bullish trade, traders said.

(snip)

Link

-- - (x@xxx.com), March 07, 2000.

Actually, it IS just rumor mongering. Or deliberate misstatements.

The WSJ stated that:

The market drew further support from a suspension of oil exports from Nigeria and a decision by Norway's state-owned oil company, Statoil, to slash production because of bad weather.

A spokeswoman for Royal Dutch/Shell Group said the company's Nigerian subsidiary -- by far the largest producer in Nigeria -- has suspended liftings of crude oil from two of its terminals because of a disruption caused by a strike.

No mention whatsoever of "computer glitches".

-- Hoff (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), March 07, 2000.

The methods used by this "glitch" site have bothered me since I first saw them. If you look at the number of incidents posted you'll see they are far smaller than the numbers on the graph. So, where are these other data points coming from? How can you judge the veracity of the graph without seeing the raw data?

This site also predicted a huge jump in incidents before the leap year day - it didn't happen. As cpr points out, the only thing that's important is how many problems don't get fixed and how many affect other systems.

Without some way to be able to plot similar types of problems from previous years (they did actually happen before Y2K) it seems that the data should be taken with a large grain of salt.

-- Jim Cooke (JJCooke@yahoo.com), March 07, 2000.

Will people please start using inflation adjusted prices?!! It makes no sense to say that $30-35 per barrel oil today is equivalent to $30- 35 per barrel oil in 1990 or the 1970's. The link below is to CPI data. The CPI has risen from 127.4 in the beginning of 1990 to 168.7 at the beginning of 2000, an increase of over 32%. That would make 2000's $30 a barrel oil the equivalent of about $22.50 in 1990 terms. Oil has gone from being the cheapest that it has ever been to being about what it should historically cost.

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiai.txt

-- ABC (DontCompare@Apples.andOranges), March 07, 2000.

ABC -- Good point. This may explain why OPEC took action to raise the price of crude.

-- E. H. Porter (E.H. Porter@just wondering.about it), March 07, 2000.