China
and North Korea Coordinate
7
March 2000
Link
Summary
With Taiwans elections
less than two weeks away, China has not only strengthened its warnings
against independence but increased diplomatic contacts with North Korea.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Il recently paid an unusual visit to the
Chinese embassy in Pyongyang. China appears to lack the political will to
launch an aggressive military operation and a crisis like the one
that took place in the Taiwan Strait in 1996. Yet, Beijing appears to be
positioning itself to coordinate simultaneous challenges alongside North
Korea, sending a powerful warning to the United States, with less risk of
conflict.
Analysis
Amid intensified Chinese
rhetoric directed against Taiwan, North Korean leader Kim Jong Il paid an
uncharacteristic visit March 5 to the Chinese embassy in Pyongyang.
Kims visit occurred on the same day that Chinese Central Military
Commission (CMC) Vice Chairman Zhang Wannian, in an advance of Taiwans
March 18 elections, stated bluntly, Taiwan independence means war.
Kims embassy visit and
the increased bellicosity in Beijing may not be as unrelated as they first
appear. China is searching for a way to pressure Taiwan and send a message
to the United States, without drawing substantial international
repercussions. While a repeat of the 1996 missile tests in the Taiwan
Strait would interfere with Chinas current international relations, a
coordinated action, with North Korea in the Yellow Sea and China in the
Taiwan Strait, can send an even more powerful message with less risk.
Beijing is looking for a
way to influence Taiwans presidential elections and prevent Taipei from
making further moves toward independence. In addition, China wants to make
it clear to the United States that Taiwan remains a sovereign part of
mainland China; any attempt to interfere with this, particularly by
supplying Taiwan with arms, is unacceptable. But Beijing is politically
and strategically unprepared to initiate a conflict at this time.
Not only is it in
Chinas economic interest to maintain an open door to the United States
and other Western nations. Beijing does not yet possess the military
capability to defeat Taiwan in a war. Chinas actions during March will
likely determine its accession to the World Trade Organization and increased
U.S. defense cooperation with Taiwan. Any
direct provocation would give Taiwan the added evidence needed to gain
increased international and U.S. military support.
While an invasion of
Taiwan or even a repeat of the 1996 missile tests in the Taiwan Strait
is unlikely, Beijing still emphasizes its determination against a more
independent Taiwan. But the government in Beijing is looking for ways that
dont trigger an immediate crisis. Beijing has resorted to increased
rhetoric, threatened timetables for reunification and talk of a Sino-Russian
strategic alliance to establish a just and reasonable new world
order.
Renewing the focus on
North Korea, as signaled by Kims visit, presents a major opportunity
for Beijing to increase the impact of the threat, while minimizing the
risk.
The governments of China
and North Korea have steadily warmed ties recently. During the tensions
last summer over Taiwan President Lee Teng-Huis declaration of
state-to-state relations with China, China and North Korea reaffirmed
military ties and began preparation for a series of high-level
exchanges, including a potential visit of Kim Jong Il to Beijing.
Some have speculated that
Kims recent visit to the embassy is an attempt to make up for not
having traveled to Beijing. But Pyongyangs official Korean Central News
Agency (KCNA) stated that Kims visit March 5 was on the occasion of
the New Year 2000 at the request of the Chinese ambassador. It is
likely that the visit had greater implications. For Kim, who rarely meets
foreign guests, going to a foreign embassy is an unusual move. The visit
emphasizes the heightened level of Chinese-North Korean relations. Rather
than the Chinese ambassador going to Kim, he came to the embassy, clearly
showing that China is calling the shots.
Stronger relations at
this time between China and North Korea lay the groundwork for a
potentially troubling situation for the United States. In addition to
concern about the Taiwan Strait, the United States faces problems in the
Yellow Sea. On March 3, North Korean Navy Command announced the
nullification of the Northern Limit Line (NLL), the maritime extension of
the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) on Koreas west coast. Following the
declaration, South Koreas JoongAng Ilbo reported that North Korea was
conducting high-speed attack training in the Yellow Sea under the guise of
search and rescue training.
The North Korean action
raises the possibility of repeating the June 1999 firefight with South
Korean vessels in the same area that ended with the sinking of a North
Korean ship. The confrontation raised tensions in the area and prompted the
United States to send two Aegis-class cruisers and aerial reconnaissance
to monitor the situation.
North Korea is once again
pushing its maritime boundaries along Koreas west coast. The timing
matches a series of upcoming North Korean political exchanges, including a
planning session this week to prepare for a high level visit by a North
Korean official to the United States. Prior to such meetings, North
Korea often raises tensions in order to highlight a particular issue
it wishes to be foremost on the table.
With Taiwans elections
approaching, China is looking for a way to impress its resolve upon the
United States over the status of the island. At the same time, Beijing is
not prepared to jeopardize its international relations and trigger
increased military aid to Taiwan. A North Korean provocation along the
Korean peninsula, coupled with Chinese exercises in the Taiwan Strait,
targets one of the United States greatest concerns two simultaneous
high-intensity conflicts.
While
gaining maximum political impact, China reduces its risks in not having to
hold live fire exercises in the Taiwan Strait rather it may simply
hold naval and air maneuvers. In this way, China does not directly
threaten Taiwan and minimizes U.S. justification to respond. As well,
given North Koreas own motives, China can distance itself from North
Koreas actions. If Taiwan continues to lean toward independence,
Beijing and Pyongyang may coordinate a simultaneous, yet low-risk,
provocation in the Yellow Sea and the Taiwan.
