CPR's oil price prediction

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TB2K spinoff uncensored : One Thread

Now that we have an "uncensored" forum, can we expect to hear some criticism of CPR for his January 24th prediction on oil prices: Oil PRICE BOZOS are very quiet today....****PREDICTION****..... OIL PRICES WILL ****CRASH*** SHORTLY. REASONS WHY? No, I guess not. After all, he isn't a "doomer", so his wildly incorrect predictions don't matter. Right?

-- None (none@none.none), March 04, 2000

Answers

I believe that anyones claims are open to discussion, just not sure what the motive is for a fake email address poster is in bringing a post in another forum to this forum is.

In any case, prices haven't gone down, and if a month can be considered "shortly", cpr missed the mark. But "wild speculation"? Hardly - his comments were based on oil futures. Quite different than claiming that prices are up due to mythical downhole embedded systems and oil refineries blowing up at the rollover....

Use a real email address, and I might give you a little more credibility. Unitil then, I will classify you in the cheap shot artist category, right along with me...but at least I use a real email address, lol.

-- FactFinder (david@bzn.com), March 04, 2000.


Use a real email address, and I might give you a little more credibility.

What does my email address have to do with whether CPR was completely wrong in his absolute, unhedged predictions? Nothing, obviously. So this is just the usual "bafflegab" when a favorite of the "pollys" is proven wrong.

-- None (none@none.none), March 04, 2000.


Well, I won't speak for Charlie, but I don't think he'd have any problem admitting his mistakes. Who DOESN'T make them? However, I think I can safely say that Charlie would admit it and move on, rather than re-defend a faulty presumption over and over and over regardless of the evidence.

And his track record is still pretty darn good, comparitively. :) :)

I don't know if that is the answer you wanted, but there you go.

Jonathan

-A computer glitch yadda yadda-

-- Jonathan Latimer (latimer@q-a.net), March 04, 2000.


However, I think I can safely say that Charlie would admit it and move on, rather than re-defend a faulty presumption over and over and over regardless of the evidence.

I know he posts here, so what's his excuse for not replying to this thread by admitting his mistake?

-- None (none@none.none), March 04, 2000.


First, I really can't quite follow the reason why any of us should run around to every possibly related forum "admitting" every prediction we got wrong. Hell, this would consume the remaining days of the majority of TB2K posters all by itself.

Second, there's a qualitative difference between not broadcasting one's confessions of error with each missed prediction, and continuing to claim you made no error when it's obvious to everyone.

Third, I wasn't aware CPR posted on this forum. Can you provide a link? I have honestly never seen this.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), March 04, 2000.



Answer today and for the foreseeable future. Traders trade and amateurs brag about trading.

http://206.28.81.29/HyperNews/get/gn/2132/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1.html

I do not gamble nor do I shoot my mouth off without facts. The charts are bullish for Oil and Energy. But the technicals to not resemble the situation of the late 1970s. Where were the Bulls in early 1998 when we all knew Oil was *too* low??

50% of theApril contract open interest traded Friday. And the open interest continues to fall. That indicates trading and gambling by beginners. The oil market is inverted. I have traded commodities for 38 years. I learned how from Gold who taught the required Commodity Courses I needed for my NYSE and Commodity licenses in the early 1960s. I started with Maine Potato futures a market that dust.

Look at the prices of the options long term and *learn*.

http://www.mrci.com/ohlc/ohlc-06.htm

If the market was not inverted, I would not be certain that Oil price will fall. The rest is HYPE.

It doesn't matter what you trade. At the bottom every report will tell you the world is saturated with the stuff and at the top, the predictions of ongoing shortages come out every 15 minutes.

Oil is the great commodity for traders because everyone who drives a car and pumps his /her own gas thinks he/she is an Energy Expert. So did the Ph.D. who wrote "The Prize". which barely mentioned any ongoing shortages of oil. However 10 years before, in the late 1970s, Dr. Yergin wrote another book called "Energy Futures". He predicted that we would run out of oil by 2020 I believe. Estimates of $50/bbls. oil were on every Brokers' report.

Then someone woke up and realized there was a 300 year supply of Coal and likewise Natural Gas in the USA alone. This was pointed out to the King in Saudi Arabia and shortly the price of oil began to soften. Cars hit the market that you could drive and get 25 mpg.

LEARN FROM THE PAST.

All the tripe online about oil is a replay of all the same things I heard during the 1970s. Life is wholesale and retail. Where were all these online experts when I posted on Biffy that Oil Producers were better investments than the Gold, Gold coins or even the Gold mining companies. In DFW we knew oil at $12 was too low. You could not drill or ship it because you lost if you did (unless you had a well with the purest of crude).

Gas at 79 cents /gal. reg. was an aberration. The lowest I paid for diesel was 96 and I thinkl a truck stop E. of Dallas was at 89. Then we started to rise and by Summer broke over $1.10. However, I paid up to $1.24 during the 1990s and mostly between 1.15-1.1.19.

Now every the rig count is jumping 50 rigs up per week. We haven't seen that in Texas for a long time. Its clear that the majors are exploring marginal maps again. Its also clear that OPEC will squeeze as much as possible but the Options market is saying that in one year prices will be lower. One thing OPEC knows is that Americans can more than afford to pay $2 even 3 dollars a gallon at the pump. At a certain point, they also know they have to let the oil flow or demand will soften. In the latter case, some of the members will dump and the Cartel will break again. RUSSIA needs money, goods and services as does Iraq. Someone will ship and suddenly the price will break. At the worst, Americans might cut vacation driving and then the supply /demand curves will kick in. Any build up of inventory will force someone to dump.

Like Y2k ......its only a matter of time.

The MARKET is telling you this is a "spot shortage" (shortage in spot oil). Otherwise the price of long term options would be greater than short term. Common sense tells you taht if you buy something today and hold it the price must be higher in the future to make a profit because of lost "opportunity costs", carrying charges and your profit margin.

If I can buy cheaper in the FUTURE why would I buy for inventory today?? The prices of long term options for NYMEX are below. BRENT is cheaper (usually 1.25-35 +/- per option).

Want to buy one million barrels for delivery in March 2001 at $27?? There isn't a trader in the world that wouldn't take your order no matter what today's spot price of either Brent or Light and Sweet is.

A clearer set of tables for closing Fri. is on Moore: http://www.mrci.com/ohlc/ohlc-06.htm

http://206.28.81.29/HyperNews/get/gn/2132/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1.html Link

HERE is why: http://tradingcharts.naq.com/futures/quotes/1CL

NYMEX Crude Oil (Price quotes for this commodity delayed at least 30 minutes as per exchange requirements) Click here to refresh data Month Click for chart Session Prior Day Options Open High Low Last Time Sett Chg Sett Vol O.Int Mar 00 23.32 23.47 23.29 UP 23.47 15:46

Sep 00 26.25 26.25 25.85 UC 26.15 15:18 26.21 +0.01 26.2 24 19365 Call Put Oct 00 25.45 25.59 25.25 DN 25.55 15:21 25.62 +0.01 25.61 8 17374 Call

Put Nov 00 25.1 25.1 24.9 DN 25 14:05 25.13 +0.01 25.12 4 12865 Call Put

Dec 00 24.6 24.6 24.41 UC 24.5 13:19 24.67 +0.01 24.66 28 38572 Call Put

Jan 01 24.2 24.2 24.2 UC 24.2 14:56 24.22 +0.02 24.2 2 16793 Call Put

Feb 01 23.7 23.77 23.65 DN 23.65 15:21 23.79 +0.02 23.77 9 5491 Call Put

Mar 01 - - - - 14:22 20.28 - 20.26 3 2075 Call Put

Apr 01 22.95 22.95 22.95 UC 22.95 14:46 22.97 +0.02 22.95 2 2057 Call Put May 01 22.58 22.58 22.58 UP 22.58 14:43 22.6 +0.02 22.58 1 2498 Call Put

Jun 01 22.23 22.23 22.23 UP 22.23 14:38 22.26 +0.02 22.24 1 18458 Call Put Jul 01 - - - - 13:56 21.96 - 21.94 1 3135 Call Put

Aug 01 - - - - 11:03 21.68 - 21.66 1 991 Call Put Sep 01 - - - - 15:04 21.42 - 21.4 2 2384 Call Put

Oct 01 - - - - 12:28 21.18 - 21.16 3 669 Call Put Nov 01 - - - - 14:12 20.96 - 20.94 - 672 Call Put

Dec 01 - - - - 15:35 20.75 - 20.73 8 21729 Call Put

Jan 02 - - - - 13:30 20.58 - 20.56 1 1119 Call Put

Feb 02 - - - - 12:13 20.42 - 20.4 4 337 Call Put

CPR

http://206.28.81.29/HyperNews/get/gn/2132/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1.html

Link

CPR

-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), March 04, 2000.


I was right: CPR is defending his completely wrong call, which saw oil prices go almost straight up after he said they would "crash soon". Obviously, he can't admit it when he is wrong. Sounds a lot like what he always accuses "doomers" of, doesn't it?

-- none (none@none.none), March 04, 2000.

1. If you read every last word I wrote anywhere you will find I never ever suggested or told anyone to short oil. Only a fool shorts a rising market or buys into a falling one.

However, I am still waiting for the $50-60 bbl. that some of the online Experts stated were a certainty by Feb.,2000. It could happen. I once saw snow on Memorial Day Weekend in the Hamptons instead of a daily high of 82F.

Even the Dallas Mavericks win a game now and then. I do not gamble on such things but then I don't gamble or drink either. Buying Oil futures in January required the nerve of a drunken gambler. Was that you?

I stand by what I wrote a month ago. The market is in a "top" and if you don't know that you don't know how commodities are peddled to "investors". This does not mean it can't go higher but when you evaluate such things, you have to look at "how far can it go up vs. how far down".

So at 27-28, could anyone argue for a doubling to the 50s? Yet, one could argue for a 50% price crash because that is exactly where the price had come from in less than one year. I also wrote that oil *could* go to 30 even 35 before falling. So, 10-25% up vs. 50% down is not exactly a "prudent gamble" IF the options start to fall *THE Daily LIMIT" day after day for 3-4 days and you can't sell out. You can't get out and the Margin Department really would like to have a nice long chat with you.

If you have stayed long at $27 options and the price fell to only 20, you would probably make a few trips the Bank when the Margin Call came.

So, don't put words into my mouth about any "unhedged" position. If I were to ever play a market which the public has entered it would only be with Strips or Straps. (Straddles only work now with stocks.)

Last year, I also suggested that people might buy not only the Oil producers stocks as good value (still not a bad idea) but also the Gold fans might do better with the rare (strategic metals)rather than GOLD and had some loud mouths point this out when gold went up to 320 from 265 or so. I didn't tell anyone to buy or sell gold but Garee' told one and all to purchase coins when bullion was only $328 that day.

I did not tell anyone to buy the options nor the metal. However, I see few posts anywhere about PD or PT in the high 300s and low 400s or Rhodium the most volatile and thinnest trade of all.

You seem to have found a DATE associated with my calling the current state of oil a top which will precede a crash.

Would you happen to have a URL for that??

Or would you rather I wait until June or August and post this thread and we will see who was right and who was wrong.

-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), March 04, 2000.


cpr, Thanks for the background. None does have a fair question though, whens "soon"? I would like prices to drop...soon, lol.

-- FactFinder (david@bzn.com), March 04, 2000.

So a month isn't "shortly"? Sounds to me like you're trying to get out of admitting you were wrong about prices "crashing shortly". Just like the position that "Y2K isn't over, because it's still the year 2000". Is that the same argument? Sounds like it to me.

If a month (actually over 5 weeks) isn't "shortly", when is it? June, or August, as you suggest? When August comes, if oil hasn't "crashed", will you move it out to October, or maybe next year sometime?

-- none (none@none.none), March 04, 2000.



Soon??

Everything is relative. Its only a matter of time. Unlike the Doomzies 1929-1941 re-run of the Depression.

Its for sure that $1.50 gal. gas will look like a bargain to people after they have paid $2.00 or more for awhile. It is sort of a way to "condition" consumers for price increases.

Of course, a nice juicy WAR would send prices into orbit because the Cartel would not have to negotiate anything. They have the Lovely Islands of Japan willing to pay or die. Simple. We have some options the Japanese do not. (Coal and Gas).

As it stands now, we will all have to wait until the late March meeting and before then, the Market will tell you because the members of OPEC have trading accounts to hedge their bets with.

Its for sure as of today, if long term prices were heading North, the futures would start rising over the short term and that is not happening. I suspect but have no evidence that long term large contracts have or are being negotiated by buyers and sellers that reflect the futures market.

The trouble with oil is that unlike Crops you can't watch the weather and the growth rate of the seedlings to get an idea of what the Crop production will be.

-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), March 04, 2000.


Soon??

Everything is relative. Its only a matter of time.

In other words, if you're wrong in August, then you'll just move "soon" later, just like the "doom zombies" that you're always screaming about. Thanks for confirming my suspicion that you can never admit to being wrong about anything.

-- none (none@none.none), March 05, 2000.


None.

Please let us all know exactly what it is that you do not understand about an *inverted market* or what you do not understand from the following prices given for the months in the future. We are all here to "help you". If not me, I'm sure everyone else will be happy to assist.

A clearer set of tables for closing Fri. is on Moore: http://www.mrci.com/ohlc/ohlc-06.htm

http://206.28.81.29/HyperNews/get/gn/2132/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1.html Link

HERE is why: http://tradingcharts.naq.com/futures/quotes/1CL

NYMEX Crude Oil (Price quotes for this commodity delayed at least 30 minutes as per exchange requirements) Click here to refresh data Month Click for chart Session Prior Day Options Open High Low Last Time Sett Chg Sett Vol O.Int Mar 00 23.32 23.47 23.29 UP 23.47 15:46

Sep 00 26.25 26.25 25.85 UC 26.15 15:18 26.21 +0.01 26.2 24 19365 Call Put Oct 00 25.45 25.59 25.25 DN 25.55 15:21 25.62 +0.01 25.61 8 17374 Call

Put Nov 00 25.1 25.1 24.9 DN 25 14:05 25.13 +0.01 25.12 4 12865 Call Put

Dec 00 24.6 24.6 24.41 UC 24.5 13:19 24.67 +0.01 24.66 28 38572 Call Put

Jan 01 24.2 24.2 24.2 UC 24.2 14:56 24.22 +0.02 24.2 2 16793 Call Put

Feb 01 23.7 23.77 23.65 DN 23.65 15:21 23.79 +0.02 23.77 9 5491 Call Put

Mar 01 - - - - 14:22 20.28 - 20.26 3 2075 Call Put

Apr 01 22.95 22.95 22.95 UC 22.95 14:46 22.97 +0.02 22.95 2 2057 Call Put May 01 22.58 22.58 22.58 UP 22.58 14:43 22.6 +0.02 22.58 1 2498 Call Put

Jun 01 22.23 22.23 22.23 UP 22.23 14:38 22.26 +0.02 22.24 1 18458 Call Put Jul 01 - - - - 13:56 21.96 - 21.94 1 3135 Call Put

Aug 01 - - - - 11:03 21.68 - 21.66 1 991 Call Put Sep 01 - - - - 15:04 21.42 - 21.4 2 2384 Call Put

Oct 01 - - - - 12:28 21.18 - 21.16 3 669 Call Put Nov 01 - - - - 14:12 20.96 - 20.94 - 672 Call Put

Dec 01 - - - - 15:35 20.75 - 20.73 8 21729 Call Put

Jan 02 - - - - 13:30 20.58 - 20.56 1 1119 Call Put

Feb 02 - - - - 12:13 20.42 - 20.4 4 337 Call Put

CPR

http://206.28.81.29/HyperNews/get/gn/2132/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1.html

-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), March 05, 2000.


I know exactly what a market in "backwardation" looks like. The question at hand, of course, is why the price hasn't CRASHED as you said it would. I believe we haven't seen the highs yet, by a long shot, and I'm not alone; many respected oil analysts feel the same (as does my commodities broker). You, however, KNOW what is going to happen. Too bad reality isn't cooperating, eh?

I notice no one else seems to be chiming in to support you. But they also aren't commenting on your complete unwillingness to admit that your predictions of "CRASHING SHORTLY" as of 5 weeks ago are WRONG. I wonder why?

-- none (none@none.none), March 05, 2000.


NONE

Stay tuned.

Saturday March 4 5:03 AM ET

Kuwait Hints Rise in Oil Output By Ashraf Fouad

KUWAIT (Reuters) - Oil price hawk Kuwait on Saturday gave the first official hint it might back a plan to put more oil on the world market after months of insisting that output curbs in place to end March should be extended.

Oil Minister Sheikh Saud Nasser al-Sabah said in a statement to Reuters the result of talks between OPEC members Saudi Arabia and Venezuela and non-OPEC Mexico was ``a step in the right direction...to safeguard oil market stability, guarantee supplies to consuming nations and avoid price fluctuations which harm all countries and global economic growth.''

Oil ministers from the three countries which forged the accord that sent oil prices spiraling to their highest level in nine years said after talks in London this week that additional supplies were needed but they did not say by how much or when.

Sheikh Saud had said in the past that raising output ahead of the northern hemisphere summer, when demand for crude oil begins to wane, would be a mistake. He had supported extending the global oil output cuts accord beyond its end-March expiry when OPEC meets on March 27.

On Saturday, he said: ``Any decision taken by OPEC at its next meeting will take into consideration (various important factors) to serve the common interests of oil exporting and consuming nations.

``OPEC is aware of world interest and its need for this strategic commodity which should be available for the world community based on a balance between supply and demand and the size of world stocks, which reached a high level, and estimates of its drop.

``...prices fell sharply to unprecedented levels over the past two years, triggering a deterioration in the economies of oil exporting countries and a grave impact on their balance of payments,'' added the sheikh.

He said Kuwait ``seeks and supports any inclinations which leads to stabilizing prices in a fashion which serves the common interests of oil producing and consuming states.''

Kuwait, which sits on 10 percent of the world's oil, is producing 1.836 million barrels per day under the present agreement. Kuwait crudes are currently trading above $27 a barrel after dropping last year to $7 a barrel, compared to an average price of $10 a barrel used to calculate state budget income.

U.S. Energy Secretary Bill Richardson said on Friday he planned to meet Sheikh Saud next week.

Richardson visited the Gulf Arab state last month to lobby for higher oil output to ease the impact of high prices on the United States, the world's biggest oil consuming nation gearing up for the summer driving season when gasoline demand peaks.

Kuwait has come under attack in the United States by some lawmakers who reminded the Gulf State and U.S. ally of Washington's role in leading the 1991 Gulf War which ended Iraq's seven-month occupation of Kuwait.

They have also mentioned Washington's continued military presence in the area to defend Saudi Arabia and Kuwait against what they see as Iraqi threats to neighbors.

-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), March 05, 2000.



Steve H. , you don't happen to be none do you?

-- a possible outing (right@here.rightnow), March 05, 2000.

none,

Good heavens. If you're nitpicking the definition of "soon," consider that, in *JULY*, Paul Milne said in CSY2K that I'd be "dead soon."

Therefore, by your strict definition of "soon" (that it should be limited to a month or less), Paul should have admitted that he was wrong by September 1 at the latest, rather than mid-Feb, because the rumors of my death were exaggerated at that time. Therefore, you need to go fuss at Paul, too.

(Tongue firmly in cheek here. Do you have any concept how SILLY you look with the whiny argument?)

Of course, if you actually bother to read what CPR says instead of nitpicking a single word in an attempt to score a cheap testosterone point, he has warned that gas prices might go higher than $2 before dropping back to some intermediate level. He has also said that oil prices will crash "soon" -- WHICH, TO ANYONE WHO UNDERSTANDS MARKETS, means anytime in the next several months (that's "soon" to a trader).

You know, the real problem that Doomers (and anti-CPR types in general) have ISN'T that the Pollys and non-Doomers were right, but that they should be permitted to enjoy it. :)

(Or, even worse from their point of view, that they should be perceived as -- gasp! -- HEROES or something like that for being right!)

-- Picklemeister (yeahright@uhhhuhh.net), March 05, 2000.


I went to buy some Brylcreme and the shelves were empty due to the oil shortage.

-- (nemesis@awol.com), March 05, 2000.

Yea!! You tellm, CPR! Yull be rite evntuly! Mabe next yr, mabe enxt centry! I'l jst wa!T t fill p my tank untl thn!!!!

-- RIGHTN! (master@bai.xx), March 05, 2000.

Funny and totaly ironic that the doombrood HATED when their failed predictions were brought to light (and it happened SO OFTEN they just couldn't take it!)

Now Heller (or Diane) thinks they found a failed prediction and they want to jump all over it.

Gawd, you doomers are funny!! Here is a clue: Try using the same lame defenses that you tried on your petty would-be god Youdonfor or North, when they were WRONG. and they were very VERY WRONG.

On another note, Diane "just shag me" Squire will still be posting here anon; sorry meme-girl, you were caught lying one to many times on the old board. I saved copies of the posts where you tried to frame me (remember the out of order dates? the inserted white space? the "trolling" you claimed came from me when it didn't? your "slip up" in postings signed "outingsR" when it should have been your "regular" handle? hmmm? remember?)

You make me laugh!

-- Super Polly (FU_Q_Y2kfreaks@hotmail.com), March 06, 2000.


Durn it, I'm reading 2 posts at once. the comments on Diane belong on another thread.

-- SP (same@as.always), March 06, 2000.

"Gawd, you doomers are funny!! Here is a clue: Try using the same lame defenses that you tried on your petty would-be god Youdonfor or North, when they were WRONG. and they were very VERY WRONG."

That won't be necesary. you and CPR ha've done it already!

-- Who cares (who@cares.xb), March 06, 2000.


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