Read Jim Lord's Y2K Apologygreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
I have just posted Jim Lord's latest weekly column (March 2). It is called My Y2K Apology. I think you will find it interesting.
-- Michael S. Hyatt (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 02, 2000
all good advice particularly
1. Get out of debt. Congratulationswhat a great way to live your life.
2. Maintain paper copies of all important records. Good for youyour affairs are in better order than at any time in your life.
3. Hold three to six months living expenses in the form of cash. OK, at worst you missed a bit of interestperhaps $6070 a month. On the other hand you're now ready for an unexpected job loss, illness, or financial turmoil of any kind. You could also jump on any great financial opportunity that comes along. You might even take a few months off to play with the kids (or the spouse), take a long trip, or even write that book.
4. Hold the same amount in gold and silver coins. This (plus the cash mentioned above) prepares you for any economic calamity. Hyper- inflation, a massive depressionary spiral, bank failures, economic or governmental collapse, etc., however likely any of these things might be. These coins are not an investment; they are calamity insurance. Hold them for the long term and give them to your kids when you die. If you get to do this with these coinsyou win. (Besides, they're really fun to play with.)
5. Close bank accounts and transfer funds to a Cash Management Account (denominated in treasuries) at a large brokerage house. Dollar cost to you is zero and you can still write checks and draw interest on your funds. Not only that, you've protected yourself from the fragility of the banking system due to fractional reserve banking practices. Incidentally, the reserve is at its all time lowless than a penny on the dollar. The banking system has never been weaker in its history.
6. Get out of the stock market (see below for tax deferred investments) . Few things in this world are more perilous than this market. A simple return to the average historical P/E ratio would result in a crash greater than 70 percent. Don't try to capture the final rally. Remember the fundamental rulebuy low, sell high. Guess what? It's high!
7. Reallocate tax deferred investments into treasuries and Central Fund of Canada (a gold and silver holding companystock symbol CEF). Same comments as the preceding paragraph. (Before the rollover I recommended a fifty-fifty ratio. Today, make it 25 percent treasuries and 75 percent Central Fund.) The ride up on your mutual funds has been great folks, but the ride back down will not be thrilling.
8. Maintain a three- to six-month supply of food, water, energy and medicine. Well, just get busy and use it up. You'll spend a lot less time at the grocery store for awhile and I'm sure you got a real bargain by buying in bulk. If you dont want to use it, give it to your church or a food bankI'm sure they would really appreciate it. Better yet, hold on to it and stay prepared for any of the other unpleasant things life might bring your way. I can testify that this is a great lifestyle to liveI've maintained a year's supply of food in my own home since my first deployment to Vietnamthirty-three years ago.
9. Avoid large population centers. If you built a bunker in a mountain cabin (in spite of my recommendations to the contrary) you're probably stuck with an uncomfortable home you would rather not have. If, however, you followed my advice and moved to a small, rural community, the quality of your life has improved. For the first time in years, you probably know your neighbors. Life in an American small town is something to be treasured. Enjoy it.
I would make these same recommendations today without hesitation (with only the small change noted above). Many potential problems exist today that warrant these same preparations. The steps above outline a great strategy for dealing with an uncertain world within which Y2K was simply the most recent threat. The basic premise is to prepare for the worst in such a way that being wrong won't do any damage. You think nothing of insuring your home, your car, your health and your life. Whats so extreme about insuring your food, water, energy, medicine.........
-- Sir Richard (email@example.com), March 02, 2000.
I can summarise Lord's article in a few lines, for anyone who can't be bothered to read the whole thing. Here goes:
I was wrong about Y2K because I listened to a bunch of experts who told me it was going to be bad. So it's not my fault, honest! And it wasn't irresponsible of me to tell people to prepare for something that didn't happen, because if you followed my advice, you're now better off anyway.
As they say in my part of the world: What a load of cobblers!
My advice would have been: Always be wary of people who speak about themselves in the third person. It's usually a sign of an inflated sense of self-importance.
-- Richard Dymond (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 02, 2000.
This post is not about preps. It's about Y2K, and the panic- mongerers.
"I believe the government was terribly wrong in telling the people of this nation not to prepare for Y2K. I think they played Russian Roulette with our well being. The hammer came down on an empty chamber but I hold them in contempt for putting the gun to our head. As things turned out, it looks like we get to have that party. But I dont think the government deserves any credit for the way they behaved. More than anything, they just got lucky."
It's not an apology at all. It's an attempt to save face by pretending all Mr Lord did was rely on OTHER experts (the "Yourdon" defense) and accuse the government of behaving badly (by protecting the financial health of the Nation, for instance). It is major sour grapes, and it completely avoids the central issue: Mr Lord, Mr Hyatt, Mr Yourdon and countless others just never figured out that Y2K computer issues would be:
1. Spread out across time,
2. Would disrupt individual systems but be lost in a larger denominator of other computer disruptions that happen every day, and
3. Would begin occurring well before rollover so that we could judge their macro effect. By early to middle '99, when a huge percentage of the corporate world had experienced significant Y2K problems, it was pretty obvious to thinking individuals that macro effects from Y2K would be minimal.
Mr Lord at once criticizes the government and then admits things turned out well. Instead of being able to admit HE was wrong, he simply calls the other guy "lucky". Those of you who listen to Mr Lord now, who insist on buying into this self-serving rhetoric, are simply joining the ranks of an idiot.
If it took a Y2K scare to get you to prep, fine; nothing wrong with being prepared. But nothing about wanting to be prepared should make you feel like you have to follow a turkey to get permission to do so.
-- Jim Thompson (email@example.com), March 02, 2000.
I should have said (at the top), MY post is not about preps. It's about Y2K, and the panic- mongerers.
-- I'mSo (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 02, 2000.
Hey Sysops, what happened to your no 'vendors' rule. By allowing Hyatt, the 'King of the Food' pimps to keep posting on this forum, you are sanctioning his continued activities. But that's what TB2000 is all about, isn't it?
-- Ra (email@example.com), March 02, 2000.
thanks for sharing your cliches with us
-- Sir now Saint Richard (sanctified) (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 02, 2000.
Everybody y2kpro will be adding his pearls of wisdom and good natured responses to EZ
-- Lord Richard (email@example.com), March 02, 2000.
Good column and so true.
-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), March 02, 2000.
y2kpro has been bounced out of EZ
i expect he'll be back somehow
-- Sir richard (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 02, 2000.
Well I agree with Lord Jim, G. North, Hyatt and the others that had the will to give their time to warn the people.
If you watched the BILL MONEY spent to stop the problems and the actions of the Government only a FOOL would not protect his faimly.
In the Y2K CEO's report for the Roll over he said that they left 2 mainframes (un fixed) on line and they shut down ! Get a CLUE ! Billions of dollars and hundreds of problems reported even with a BLACKOUT on reporting problems; thousands of problems will probably never be known. I'd say be thankful the light stayed on!
The reports I read for 3 years never said everything was going down only on the rollover. The Oil is becoming a problem, planes are falling from the sky, and FEMA is still ready and in place to take control of America under the Executive Orders. If Nothing Happened, be real thankful! Living in Hurricane country, I'm prepared the best I can be and I'll stay that way.
Thats my 2"
-- Awdragon (email@example.com), March 02, 2000.
I like the bit where he implies that the USA is run by doomers who thought it would all fall apart. Nice to know that the decision makers are so thoroughly clueless, eh?
-- _ (_@_._), March 02, 2000.
Jim Lord for president,Charlton Heston for Vice president. America needs Humble before God responsible leadership.
-- y2k aware mike (y2k aware mike@ conservation . com), March 02, 2000.
"But that's what TB2000 is all about, isn't it?"
You are one smart puppy. Of course, that what TB's always been about!
It has existed simply to fill the pocket books of Yourdon, Hyatt and their croonies. I'll bet you money the same stuff happens at the new site too!
(Why don't all the forum members recognize that?)
-- Linda Carter (Librian@school.edu), March 02, 2000.
"I believe the government was terribly wrong in telling the people of this nation not to prepare for Y2K. I think they played Russian Roulette with our well being. The hammer came down on an empty chamber but I hold them in contempt for putting the gun to our head."
Gee, that's EXACTLY how I feel about it too!
-- Brooks (firstname.lastname@example.org), March 02, 2000.
Linda, without the brain-dead doomlits how would Ed and his fellow scam artists make any moola. Hell, hes even clever enough to gather up these lifeless sysops and drag their sorry asses over to the new forum. You can only imagine what horrific lives they must lead to have the job of sysop be the highlight of their existence. Adios losers!
-- Ra (email@example.com), March 03, 2000.
What are "croonies"?
-- J (Y2J@home.comm), March 03, 2000.