McCains campaign received a bit of good news Wednesday in a new poll showing the senator holding a slight edge over Bush among Republican voters in New York. The Quinnipiac College survey of 1,842 registered New York state voters taken from Feb. 22-28, showed McCain leading Bush 47 percent to 40 percent. The poll has a margin of error of 2.3 percent. Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.

-- Vern (bacon17@ibm.net), March 02, 2000

Answers

I DO NOT CONSIDER [Falwell and Robertson] evil, McCain said in a statement issued by his campaign Wednesday, and offered his regrets that his flip remark had created that impression. Appearing Wednesday on MSNBCs Hardball, McCain told Chris Matthews he had been on the bus with the media and had merely been extending one of his frequent analogies  comparing himself to Luke Skywalker in Star Wars, confronting the Evil Empire. I say theyre wrong, he told Matthews at a special town meeting held at the University of Southern California. I say theyre bad for the Republican Party and they are taking us in the wrong direction. ... But Im not saying they are evil people. McCain insisted, however, that he stood by his speech Monday in Virginia Beach, Va., in which he accused the religious right of disingenuous fund-raising practices and of manipulating control of the Republican party. A day later Bush soundly defeated McCain in the Virginia primary, propelled in part by overwhelming support from religious conservatives. I stand by that speech, McCain said, repeating his charge for a new direction for the GOP. Where our party is going is going to doom us to permanent minority status unless we become a party of reform, a party of inclusion. McCains partial retreat came after mounting criticism, including a harsh rebuke from former GOP candidate Gary Bauer, who endorsed McCain last month, but said Wednesday, I must in the strongest possible terms repudiate Senator McCains unwarranted, ill-advised and divisive attacks on certain religious leaders. ... I call on Senator McCain to retract his recent statements and apologize. Former U.S. Education Secretary William Bennett also lashed out at McCain for his remarks. I think to take disagreement with a couple of people and enlarge it to the point that hes done by characterizing them as evil, an evil influence, is beyond the pale, Bennett said. I appreciate his constructive criticism, McCain said of Bennetts remarks, when asked about them by Matthews.

-- Vern (bacon17@ibm.net), March 02, 2000.

Who the hell is "Quinnipiac College" and why haven't we heard from them before?

Could it be that the McCrankies had to search long and far to find some rinkydink outfit who would say what they wanted to hear?

I'll wait for Zogby.

-- Charles Underwood Farley (chuck@u.farley), March 02, 2000.

Chuckie...don't you ever get off line?...if I post at noon, you respond soon after, if I post at 1 a.m., you respond soon after!!! This was reported by MSNBC. NY got ya worried? Well, when McCrank takes Ohio, NY, Mass, Maine, and CA, next week!!!....by the way, how did the boys do on Leno and Letterman tonight? I had to work late and missed 'em?

-- Vern (bacon17@ibm.net), March 02, 2000.

Campaign 2000: Bush, McCain and the Primaries

Link

Thursday, February 24, 2000; 11 a.m. EST

With his victories over Texas Gov. George W. Bush Tuesday night in Michigan and Arizona, Sen. John McCain has made the contest for the Republican presidential nomination a race again. With primaries in Washington state and Virginia around the corner, followed quickly by the multi-state primaries on March 7 and 14, both candidates are hoping to build momentum on their respective bids and draw voters from both the Republican base and across party lines.

Pollster John Zogby talked about voter turnout, appealing to the base and the effects of cross-over voters in open primaries on Thursday, Feb. 24. The transcript follows:

Free Media: Good morning, John, and welcome. Can you talk a little bit about the models that you've been using to take into account the Democratic and Independent voters in open primary states? How does it differ from the VNS model, and how do you develop them?

John Zogby: I don't know what the VNS model is, but we have been polling likely voters using the usual very careful screen we always use. Quite frankly, we have been letting the chips fall where they may when it comes to Democrats and Independents. I have not touched it [the model], weighted it or done anything with it. In the three states that we have polled, in two of them we have hit the sampling model right on the money in terms of Democrats and independents. In New Hampshire, we had 31 percent who were independent, which was much higher than it's been in the past. In the final analysis, VNS showed that it was 39-41 percent, which to some degree explains why we had McCain up by 12 and his ultimately winning by 19.

Voters need to understand that we can only poll up to the day before the election. And there can always be, and often is, a last- minute trend as people make up their minds. In 1998, there were 11 U.S. Senate races that were too close to call. Eight percent of the voters said that they made up their minds the day of the election, which looms large when you have elections that are too close to call.

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Temple, Tex.: How much support does McCain have in Texas and Florida right now? And if he wins more primaries, how much will he gather?

John Zogby: I honestly have not seen any polling in Texas or Florida. I would have to assume that these are big Bush states for obvious reasons. But I have not seen any polls.

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Cedar Rapids, Iowa: Have George W. Bush's negative TV ads in Michigan and elsewhere damaged his claim to be a "compassionate conservative" candidate who is a "uniter, not a divider"? In other words, are his actions in the campaign undermining his original promises?

John Zogby: I think that that is the perception by many. And thus far, it's hurting Bush.

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Bloomington, Ill.: It's been pointed out that the influence of cross-over voting diminishes as the primary season rolls on with more closed Republican primaries on the horizon. What are McCain's favorability and unfavorability numbers among registered Republican voters in the big three primaries: California, New York, and Ohio? Have you seen any movement in his numbers since coming out of Michigan and Arizona?

John Zogby: Honestly, no one has actually conducted a poll since Michigan. The polls that came out yesterday in Massachusetts, New York and Connecticut all had been in the field prior to Michigan. But thus far, his favorable/unfavorable ratings are very high in many of the states that hold primaries on March 7.

Two factors here: One is that now you do enter into closed primaries. We have McCain ahead in Connecticut, he's tied in New York  those are two closed primaries. So there is evidence that he can appeal to core Republican voters. Two, will crossover voters continue to vote? That can only come under the category of "we've never been here before"  this hotly contested and this kind of appeal.

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San Francisco, Calif.: Good morning,

Perhaps an impossible question to answer, but whose opinion on voter cross-over behavior in November do you think is more accurate, Bush's  that Democrats and independents now voting for McCain will jump to Gore if McCain wins the nomination  or McCain's  that those Demos and independents now voting for him will stay with him? It seems to me that Bush's assessment is the least logical, for it assumes a kind of Machiavellian group intelligence on the part of a lot of voters who don't even know each other, and that McCain's judgment is closer to the truth, because it assumes that many Demos are so desperate for a credible and honorable candidate that they're even willing to look outside their own party for such an unusual political animal. Now that I've done such a fine job of answering my own question, to my own satisfaction of course, what is your more expert opinion? Thanks.

John Zogby: I obviously cannot have an expert opinion. Any attempt at an opinion would probably come off as biased, and I don't want to be biased. Essentially, what I think we ought to do is let the voters decide that one.

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Cambridge, Mass.: Hello.

As a foreign political scholar, I was just curious about what motivations the Michigan voters had for such a huge turnout in the Michigan primary. Did you find anything in your polls that could be a proof of "protest vote" against the GOP establishment (i.e. against Gov. Engler's control over the state's politics) or against negative campaign conducted allegedly by the Christian rights?

Furthermore, was it possible to assume that the Democrats and independents may have become more inspired to vote in the GOP primary as they came to recognize that their ballots would extraordinarily count after they observed the outcome in South Carolina?

Thanks.

John Zogby: Good questions, all. Number one, there was indeed some evidence that some Democrats came out to embarrass Gov. Engler. But for the most part, Democratic voters came out to vote for John McCain because they like him. This posts a potential danger for Democrats in November, as some of these voters might stay with McCain if they have the option.

Secondly, in terms of the impact of the Christian Right, the campaign was so consolidated that it was very hard for the messages that we saw to actually ferment and be processed among voters in Michigan. The Michigan campaign was less than 72 hours.

I think that the process is energizing voters  just look at the turnouts. I can also add that our response rates are so very high in our polls that that's another measure of voter interest and enthusiasm. I think it's attributable to the fact that this is a very hot contest, and perhaps more so the McCain candidacy has appealed to constituencies that otherwise might not have voted.

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Free Media: Commentators like Arianna Huffington and Molly Ivins are urging people to hang up on or lie to pollsters. What's your take on this?

John Zogby: I know Arianna very well, and I know that she can cite every poll in every state imaginable. She's a bit of a poll junkie herself, and I don't take her sentiments too seriously.

Molly Ivins is a humorist. Say no more. Polls serve a very useful purpose. They keep people connected, and they produce scientific evidence to either support or negate what talking heads, albeit very lovely talking heads like Arianna and Molly, are saying. I think this comes under what psychologists call status anxiety  the fear that one's status may be taken over by people who do things better than one's self (laughing).

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Somewhere, USA: Are you related to the brilliant Liz Zogby?

John Zogby: Yes, I am, Liz, and I love you. She is my proud and beautiful niece, and she should be working instead of taking time to ask her uncle questions.

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Belton, Tex.: Does John McCain have a chance to pull enough Republican votes in California?

John Zogby: The answer is yes. What we're seeing in states like New England and New York is that he has sufficient appeal among registered Republicans. If he wins the state of Washington substantially, that could help him considerably in California.

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Hagerstown, Md.: How is John McCain going to be able to win the Republican nomination without Republican votes? He seems to be trying to become the first candidate ever to win a GOP primary without a majority of Republican votes.

John Zogby: Good question. But he won among Republicans in New Hampshire, and he's tied in New York, where it's a closed primary. And he's leading substantially in Connecticut  also a closed primary.

So there is evidence he can attract Republican voters.

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Free Media: That was our last question today for pollster John Zogby. Thanks to John, and to everyone who joined us today. Once again, the questions were great.

Stay tuned for future discussions with John. But in the meantime, he extends an invitation to come to the Zogby Web site and register to participate in their online polls, which will be a regular feature.

Back here on washingtonpost.com, tune in tomorrow at 11 a.m. EST for Holding Court with Post Supreme Court reporter Joan Biskupic. It was a big week for the court, which heard the HMO case and struck down a voting rights case in Hawaii.

) Copyright 2000 The Washington Post Company

-- Possible Impact (posim@hotmail.com), February 24, 2000.

What does Mr. Underwood have to comment about this?

-- Vern (bacon17@ibm.net), March 02, 2000.

Vern, how McCainish of you to attack me for being online as much as you!

Your Short Angry Man will be a sight to see come Tuesday night! I bet he has his "you won't have Nixon to kick around anymore" speech ready to go.

Lets hope his handlers have the common sense to lock up the sharp objects before the exit polls start coming in.

-- Charles Underwood Farley (chuck@u.farley), March 02, 2000.

Honestly, I think that it would be REMARKABLE and SUPERB if the miscreants walked into the Convention hall at 40%, 40%, 20% and had to fight it out for the first time in just under 50 years.

Chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), March 02, 2000.

Vern, it looks like Kissinger has tainted McCain with his personal endorsement. It loooks like vee may be dealink mit der Shrubya.

-- KoFE (your@town.USA), March 02, 2000.

From the Washington Times:

McCain's campaign falls into disarray By Ralph Z. Hallow and Dave Boyer THE WASHINGTON TIMES

Visit our Election 2000 page for daily election news and analysis

The wheels have come off Sen. John McCain's "Straight Talk Express" as his campaign finds itself in disarray over a mounting backlash against his diatribe on Christian conservatives and swirling questions about the candidate's truthfulness. Over the last few days, Mr. McCain has: * Apologized for comments to the media that Christian conservatives, including the Revs. Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell, are "forces of evil" after Christian conservatives in Virginia turned out in droves to vote against him. * Remained silent over reports by a former campaign adviser who quit as Mr. McCain continued to hammer Mr. Bush's visit to Bob Jones University  that he lied about his involvement in attempts to make his own campaign speech at the school. * Interceded in an internal campaign staff squabble that led to reports his communications director had been fired for publicly criticizing his boss's initial decision to bypass an important California debate today. * Suffered a stinging rebuke by Gary Bauer, his most prominent supporter among conservative leaders, for his diatribes against Mr. Robertson and Mr. Falwell. * Engaged in a fierce on-air argument with radio talk-show host Michael Reagan in which the former president's son hung up on the angry candidate, who refused to talk about anything but Mr. Robertson and bigotry. * Admitted orchestrating a series of telephone calls to voters that implied Texas Gov. George W. Bush is an "anti-Catholic bigot." Mr. McCain had steadfastly denied being behind the calls. * Demeaned voters in Virginia and Washington state after being trounced in both states, saying, "Most people in Super Tuesday states are not going to be affected by what happened in Virginia or Washington, to tell you the truth." The campaign's erratic steering has grown more apparent as the two candidates approach Super Tuesday on March 7. Mr. McCain's gambit Monday against religious conservatives was targeted at voters in New York and California the two big prizes that day  but polls show Mr. Bush has closed a huge gap in New York among Roman Catholics and leads by more than 20 points in California, where Mr. McCain has actually lost ground. California state Sen. Chuck Pooschigian said Mr. McCain's campaign is "drowning in its own vitriol." "The bitterness and uncontrolled angers being demonstrated by him and his campaign here in California suggests to me that something is going very wrong," Mr. Pooschigian said. He said Mr. McCain in an appearance Wednesday embarrassed his own supporters by appearing to praise Interior Secretary Bruce Babbitt and the Clinton administration's water policies in the state. "That didn't sit well with farmers here. How could a campaign that has not gone to pieces not know that?" he said. Mr. McCain's temper was also on display in a contentious interview late Tuesday night with Mr. Reagan, whose radio show is aired on 220 stations. Mr. McCain sidestepped questions about issues and repeatedly tried to return the discussion to Mr. Robertson and bigotry. Mr. Reagan curtly ended the call by saying, "Mr. McCain, goodbye. . . . All he wants to talk about is Pat Robertson and bigotry," he then told listeners. "He doesn't want to talk about education. Man does not have the temperament to be president of the United States." Mr. McCain has belittled Mr. Bush for his visit to Bob Jones University in South Carolina, which bans interracial dating and has been connected to anti-Catholic rhetoric. But ABCNews.com reported yesterday that Mr. McCain considered a visit to the Greenville school. The Web site said Terry Haskins, who was the McCain campaign's South Carolina co-chairman and is speaker pro-tem of the state's House of Delegates, confirmed that "negotiations took place around the same time Bush delivered his address at the school" and that "the national headquarters tentatively signed off on the idea, schedule permitting." Mr. Haskins added that the visit was to build support for the South Carolina primary and not to denounce the university's policies on race or its anti-Catholicism  a lapse for which he has derided Mr. Bush. ABC also quoted him as saying Mr. McCain had hoped to speak there not to make any statement on race or religious bigotry. "There were a lot of primary voters up there and we thought it would be good to be seen and not heard," Mr. Haskins told ABC News. Rep. Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican supporter of Mr. McCain's, had led the negotiations with the university. Mr. Graham holds an honorary degree from Bob Jones. No one from the McCain campaign returned phone calls seeking comment on the report. As for his role in a telephone campaign dubbed a "Catholic voter alert," Mr. McCain, after days of denying involvement, finally acknowledged being behind the calls. After Mr. Bush had defeated Mr. McCain in a bitter South Carolina primary, aides drafted a telephone script, bought lists of Catholic voters and contracted with a telemarketing company to call 24,000 Roman Catholic households in Michigan. In a television interview on Feb. 25, Mr. McCain said he had personally approved the calls. But two days before, Mr. McCain was asked "Have you ordered that those phone calls be stopped?" Mr. McCain replied, "I didn't have anything to do with them to start with." Bush spokesman Ari Fleischer said Mr. McCain's statement last night was clearly at odds with what he had said earlier. "This startling revelation," he said, "undercuts the entire premise of John McCain's campaign  that is, straight talk and that he will never tell a lie." In another misstep, Mr. McCain, musing with reporters on his bus, the "Straight Talk Express," said that Mr. Robertson and Mr. Falwell are "forces of evil." Yesterday, he issued an apology. "While I disagree with the political message and tactics of Reverends Falwell and Robertson, Mr. Jones and other self-proclaimed leaders of the Christian right, I do not consider them evil, and I regret that my flip remark may have mistakenly created that impression." The candidate suffered another blow yesterday when Mr. Bauer, a Christian conservative who gave up his run for the presidency last month and endorsed Mr. McCain, condemned him for assaults on Mr. Robertson and Mr. Falwell. "As a Reagan Republican and a man of faith who has endorsed Senator John McCain's candidacy for president, I must in the strongest possible terms repudiate his unwarranted, ill-advised and divisive attacks on certain religious leaders," Mr. Bauer told The Washington Times. Mr. Bauer yesterday called on Mr. McCain "to retract his recent statements and apologize to Pat Robertson and the Reverend Jerry Falwell, as well as to all men and women of faith. Comparing these respected conservative leaders to the demagogic race-baiter Al Sharpton and the anti-Semitic Louis Farrakhan was unfounded and unwise." As for communications director Dan Schnur, Mr. McCain stepped in to mediate a dispute among top campaign staff. Mr. Schnur publicly called for Mr. McCain to attend in person the Los Angeles debate. The candidate  who at first said he would not attend at all  eventually decided to participate by satellite from St. Louis. A senior campaign official, speaking to the Associated Press on condition of anonymity, told reporters early yesterday that Mr. Schnur would be leaving the campaign as early as March 8, the day after Super Tuesday. That was news to Mr. Schnur, who said he had no plans to quit. "If I'm leaving, it's definitely not by mutual decision," Mr. Schnur said. Aides said the struggle over Mr. Schnur reflected increased tension among top campaign staffers after a disappointing loss Tuesday in Virginia. Mr. McCain interceded last night to smooth things over and to ask Mr. Schnur to stay on. "We squabble a lot," the Arizona senator said, dismissing the drama.

-- X (X@X.com), March 02, 2000.