With the events transpiring, how do you good people think this will play out????????????Is it just saber-rattling, or are they really threatening to nuke us if we protect Taiwan???

-- Annie (livenear@siter.com), February 29, 2000

Answers

They threaten to nuke us about every other week. If it comes to a showdown, I think they will nuke our fleet in the area. Since we don't have much of any military left, we (Bill Clinton) will probably just lay low and stay out of the immediate area.

-- Y2kObserver (Y2kObserver@nowhere.com), February 29, 2000.

If those missiles were aimed at Wash D.C., I would say lets call their bluff.

-- JB (noway@jose.com), February 29, 2000.

...can you say Cuban Missile Crisis? The spoiled Americans of today can't!!! Along with my ex., there are way too many Americans who's comprehension of the world does not get past the Grammy's and WWF!!!

-- Vern (bacon17@ibm.net), February 29, 2000.

I don't think there will be any direct confrontation. China's army is not equipped to invade Taiwan. If China really wanted to harm the US, a more effective way would be to plant a small nuclear weapon in the Wall St. area. If done carefully, the US would not even know who was responsible.

-- Dave (dannco@hotmail.com), February 29, 2000.

Not much chance...maybe 20%...

They might not want to lose their investment in our government...

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), February 29, 2000.

MAO wrote in his auto biography that when the population was on/around 1 billion, that he would risk war with the west and be willing to lose 700 million, with 300 million to run things.

He believed that it would be in their interests to create large mobile horse calvary units. When I read this I thought how stupid. I look back now and think this isn't such a stupid idea, because if WWIII starts up the oil fields will be the first to go. Thereby reducing any mechanized military counter strike.

-- bobby knight (rknight@nb.net), February 29, 2000.

Hmm...maybe those verses in the Book of Revelation (Rev 9:16 for example) are more accurate than previously thought! Most modern writers usually attribute the descriptions to John's attempt to convey scenes of modern armored columns. Genghis rides again...?

-- chairborne commando (what-me-worry@armageddon.com), February 29, 2000.

I think after Vietnam , China will always think of us as a paper tiger. With a buddy in the White House , the military in decline , low supply of cruise missles , a STUPID " we are not to launch UNTIL we are HIT " policy , plus, NO LAUNCH CODES for our subs , it will play out like an old western . The " wanabe " top gun keeps practicing , building his rep , and looks for an advantage/opening that gives him odds of success .

China has those now ! However , they will probably wait till they have the Panama Canal sealed off , build as many missle subs with the new " give away " technology for small, sub launched missles , plans that may involve BOTH Russia and North Vietnam and some problem that we self induce or they create , before they " make their play ".

All the above goes by the boards IF , they must " save face " where Tiwan is concerned . That is , if they paint themselves into a cornor with moves/words/threats from which they can not retreat . With the elections only weeks away on Tiwan , our fleet too close and a threat escalation preceived , it could happen sooner than anyone guesses . I think they will take Tiwan , even if it's by massive junk invasion , because they have their man in charge here who they are sure will 'cave'. And he WILL ! Eagle

-- Hal Walker (e999eagle@FREEWWWEB.COM), February 29, 2000.

You got that right Hal

I fear we are in trouble.

-- salene (salene814@hotmail.com), February 29, 2000.

For you who believe in the bible, what is the worse thing a nation can do in gods eye? The sheding of inocent blood. Who are the most innocent? I'll leave that for you to answer.

-- ET (bneville@zebra.net), February 29, 2000.

ET,

Original question

Subject: OT- chance of nuclear exchange with China?

With the events transpiring, how do you good people think this will play out????????????Is it just saber-rattling, or are they really threatening to nuke us if we protect Taiwan???

I assume you aren't thinking of the good people of The United States of America. or The Peoples Republic of China as the innocent people in your question..... so what was your point? :-)

-- Casper (c@no.yr), February 29, 2000.

If the Chinamen ever lob a nuke or two into the West coast they will be the least of America's problems. Nukes going off will so ignite earthquakes and volcanic activity world wide, but espicially around the Ring of Fire and our New Madrid fault, that the death and radiation problems from the nukes will pale in comparison to these problems.

-- Logan (fisher4@earthlink.net), February 29, 2000.

Annie,

Easier to introduce some sort of biochem weapon in the good ol' USA, and MUCH cheaper. Dave suggested a nuke in Wall St. area; why not the plague instead?

Especially if as Dave suggests, it isn't directly linked to China. As a result, terrorist poisonings can continue around this country whilst the assailant enjoys political immunity from retaliation.

All for the fraction of the cost(and the global political headache of) launching one nuke.

Waddaya think, folks?

Peace,

Don

-- Shimoda (enlighten@me.com), March 01, 2000.

Stratfor, a day or so back, took the position that this is all subtle globalpolitic, and played well, on China's part. Maybe so, maybe not.

Another post today "China Threatens..." is definitely on-topic. That post contains a Gertz article on this topic, and another about North Korea's mischief.

Intentions are one thing, miscalculations can be another. It's been getting obvious that that part of the Pacific could be an extremely exciting place for a carrier group. Also consider that China is not playing this hand out alone; you can bet that everyone from India through Russia is watching very, very closely. Also consider that Hutchinson Wampoa (China) has been moving into the Canal Zone quite rapidly, and that the two highest bidders for the Zone's Howard Airforce Base are, guess who -- China and Russia. Also consider the faint possibility of a black op. targeted at Panama still possibly building up (see an earlier post today re. Stansfield Turner and Costa Rica). Now, were I a Chinese general, I would certainly strike when and where you would not expect. Cruise missles from a freighter maybe? Also make a grab for the Spratley's (oil and mineral resources) perhaps?

Annie, I cannot answer your question straight up, yes or no. Events are moving along, and there does seem plenty to keep aware of.

-- Redeye in Ohio (not@work.com), March 01, 2000.

Clancy's "SSN" scenario looks like it might actually hit this time (AWK!!!!!!)

CHuck, who thinks that the timing of the re-release of this 1996 book is INTERESTING

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), March 01, 2000.

All I can say is that I wish Bob Dole was in office. Then if China did lob a nuke at us, we'd have a good chance of returning the favor.

Personally, if my family (or yours)dies, I'd like the favor returned 10 fold,

Frank

-- Someone (ChimingIn@twocents.cam), March 01, 2000.

Redeye, I believe I have read on this forum that China already has occupied the Spratly Islands.

All, I personally think this is global geopolitics and saber rattling on the part of China to draw attention while they implement the real attack - Economics. A better move by the Russia-China-India-Iraq group appears to be playing as we watch the military moves and that is:

Russia and India buying gold (may destabilize the US Investment banks as price rises trigger margin calls).

China is shutting down their provinicial Investment Trust Banks (stiffing the foreign lenders for billions).

Iraq is with holding crude and may be pressuring other OPEC members to follow suit.

I suspect the Chinese are aware of the concepts of Mutually Assured Destruction and Nuclear Winter so that they will avoid a global thermonuclear war. Tactical use in Kashmir by Pakistan or India appears more likely, though still a low probability.

As for military confrontation, it does not appear that China is yet ready to directly confront the US and US allies.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), March 01, 2000.

Bill,

The last I knew, China had treaty rights to part of the Spratleys, the Phillipines most of the rest, and Viet Nam has been making noises about their fair share. If my info is dated, I will certainly stand corrected.

Chuck,

There have been times I've gone back and reread Clancy novels written years back precisely because the scenario is eerily close to current events. Either that dude is a seer, or he was and is amazingly well wired into very well versed folks in and out of he intel community.

Somehow I think you may be referring to his latest one, just out in paperback. Think I'll snarf up a copy soonest!

-- redeye in ohio (not@work.com), March 01, 2000.

Bill,

Got myself sidetracked by work stuff for a bit. Should have spent more time considering your last.

Your economics scenario, both what you wrote and what you left unsaid, is a strongly arguable scenario. Darn, another Clancy scenario!

That scenario may also be just the opening moves.

Theyt are probably aware that we have abuilding energy supply problems, and aware that these have not yet played all the way out.

It would seem to be logical to play that economic scenario out, assess how much it weakened and distracted us and our allies, weaken us and distract us some more, and then decide if blackmail alone will finish the job for now. I cannot discount China lobbing nukes at us in certain circumstances, especially if their credibility or 'face' will take major hit otherwise.

-- redeye in ohio (not@work.com), March 01, 2000.

Redeye,

I remember hearing in an interview with Clancy once that the FBI showed up at his door once to question him for espionage. They were wondering where he got all the secret information from. When he showed them that everything he used was in the public domain in one way or another, they were satisfied.

In "Sum of All Fears", all the information req

-- Powder (Powder47keg@aol.com), March 01, 2000.

(oops, hit submit by accident)

In "Sum of All Fears", all the information required to build the H- Bomb was/is available in the public domain. It just takes an exceptionally sharp mind to glean all the usable info from what's publicly available.

-- Powder (Powder47keg@aol.com), March 01, 2000.

Powder,

Have a well-worn copy, and come to think of it, I know what you mean.

It still helps to know where to look, and he sure seems to have golden contacts with folks who have that nailed. Too bad we can't find a way to sic him on Mena and that whole snake pit, including CIA.

-- redeye in ohio (not@work.com), March 01, 2000.

Link

U.S. Reviewing Selling Arms To Taiwan

-- XXXXX (xxxxx@you.gues.who), March 01, 2000.

The recent testing of our missile defence shows that we do not have a viable system to rely on. Now if they would lob a few over right now, they are virtually assured a hit. So why would they wait for the day when we could defend ourselves? The words they have been using seem to convey they are looking for a reason for an altercation. Their actions even more so, and,the Russians are also seeking some glory. Taiwan almost seems almost beside the point. Westerners are the "great evil" (but our money isn't, they're happy to take that) . Funny how this government, which lies with ease every minute of the day, has been generous enough to show them every weakness we have. What's wrong with this picture?

-- Gia (laureltree7@hotmail.com), March 01, 2000.