A profile of market action preceding previous crashes

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

http://www.hussman.com/hussman/html/armagedn.htm A: Bull market peak. B: Initial selloff. C: Rebound fails to better prior high. D: Sharp selloff, quickly taking prices 10% or more from peak. E: Strong 1-2 week rebound, representing the last good opportunity to get out. Failure of this rebound sets up a pattern of declining peaks. F: Breakdown: Market closes below the trough at point D. Prices are now 12-14% below the peak set less than 7 weeks earlier. G: Relief rally: October 22 1929, October 13 1987. then...

These are strong similarities. They do not mean that the market must follow the same pattern, but with market internals collapsing, interest rates rising, bellwethers such as utilities, financials and consumer stocks weak, new lows soaring, and a Crash Warning from our Market Climate model, we certainly do not rule out a rapid 20-30% market crash. The labeling of the current chart should not be taken as a forecast of an imminent crash, but rather indicates the most likely points corresponding to prior pre-crash action if historical patterns were to repeat.

Keep in mind that these patterns are presented to give you an idea of what a crash looks and feels like, so you can be prepared psychologically as well as financially. We don't place much weight on historical patterns replicating themselves identically (as the sign on a veteran trader's wall says, "It ain't gonna happen that way"). Still, with every conceivable pressure on the market, the elements are certainly in place for a major plunge ahead. ...................................................................... Go to sight for Graphs.

-- Ponzi (Crash@march.2000), February 27, 2000


To be concerned about a stock market crash it utter foolishness. Allow me to explain why...

First, it is only money. Money is not what defines success or value or worth or one's character. Money is a sorry second for intelligence, will, pluck, moxie, courage, initiative, determination, guts, balls or strength.

Second, adversity and challenges provide opportunity to truly grow in wisdom and in ability. Ability is the very source of self esteem and unshakable personal confidence.

Third, No matter what happens, good or ill, you were at your best whilst thinking and then laboring toward the attainment of your private goals. When one achieves the security blanket of a fat bank account (or stratospherically inflated stock portfolios), one gets lame, weak, fuzzy, fat and boring.

Fourth, humility is a precious virtue and humble circumstance is the only means whereby we may again appreciate the simple, the true and the good.

Finally, America is as unto a drunken rich college boy. A bastard. Pompous. And like all dolts, needs desperately to be thrown into the nearest mossy wadingpool.

I have been rich and I have been poor. But I have never been afraid for long, and I will never, ever cower over such a petty device ans mere money.

Now, do I hope for a meltdown? No. I pray for it!

Millions of children are alienated from both father and mother, who have chosen to briskly walk on the treadmill of wealth.

What this nation needs is a good lickin' and for a good long time. Believe it: It is just around the corner. Shame on us.

Now deal with it like men and women. Stop being such worms, ever cowering that things might dry up!

-- Joseph Almond (sa2000@webtv.net), February 27, 2000.

uh, ponzi. thanks. that is actually quite helpful regardless of what the prior poster "said".

-- tt (cuddluppy@aol.com), February 27, 2000.

Hey,Joe,time for another warm Beer?Careful with that"DEAD"Cigar Butt,might burn a hole into Your greasy T Shirt.:):)

-- Doomer (time@to.think), February 27, 2000.


The problem is that I'm lame, weak, fuzzy, fat and boring, without the redeeming security blanket of a fat bank account (or stratospherically inflated stock portfolios).

Now what?

-- rocky (rknolls@no.spam), February 27, 2000.

-- Joseph Almond...... I share some of your very same opinions. Though i have never been rich i wouldn't trade it for more important things life has to offer..... Thanks for your post.

-- kevin (innxxs@yahoo.com), February 27, 2000.

The Crash of 1987 was a Controlled Test!

Dow Dives 508.32 Points in Panic on Wall Street

"The largest stock-market drop in Wall Street history occurred on "Black Monday" -- October 19, 1987 -- when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 508.32 points, losing 22.6% of its total value. That fall far surpassed the one-day loss of 12.9% that began the great stock market crash of 1929 and foreshadowed the Great Depression. The Dow's 1987 fall also triggered panic selling and similar drops in stock markets worldwide" -Source: Facts on File World News CD ROM

The stock exchanges had dramatic record losses, and a record volume of shares were traded on that infamous Monday in October 1987. We all asked ourselves how computers could have done this by themselves without someone knowing about it. After all, someone has to program a computer to tell it what to do, what not to do, or even when to do or not do it.

During my telephone conversation, Mr. McNeff was trying to assure me that they [the DTC] have "never lost a certificate or made a mistake in a book ledger transaction". In attempting to give me an example of how trustworthy the DTC is when I asked him how he could back up such a statement, he replied "DTC's first controlled test was 4 or 5 years ago. Do you remember Black Monday? There were 535 million transactions on Monday, and 400 million transactions on Tuesday". He was very proud to inform me that "DTC cleared every transaction without a single glitch!". Read these quotes again: He stated that Black Monday was a controlled test. Black Monday was a deliberately manipulated disaster for many Americans at the whim of a controlled test by the DTC.

What was the purpose of this test? Common sense tells you that you test something before you intend to use it. It's quite obvious that the stock markets are going to 'crash and burn' at some future date and for some 'unknown' reason since the controlled test was so successful.


-- Hello (WakeUp@Now.com), February 27, 2000.

A stock market crash would not be so bad, IF it weren't for the side effects. If the stocks of the big companies crash, the companies will downsize, if not outright collapse, and cause a domino effect taking many smaller companies with them. Unemployment will rise. And this means... a lot of people will have trouble getting money for the necessities of life like food and shelter. I would agree that money is not everything, but try doing the food and shelter thing without it.

-- nothing (better@to.do), February 27, 2000.

Whatabout banks, liquidity, and the price of property?

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), February 27, 2000.

George ... The price of property has run in 40 year cycles ; they are about to repeat that cycle ! Eagle ( ' lived the last depression ')

-- Hal Walker (e999eagle@FREEWWWEB.COM), February 27, 2000.


You are not the ghost of Christmas past, you have no moral lesson to confer upon our lesser beings, go away quietly or I will call Ghostbusters and you will get blasted with ectoplasm.
99% of the participants of this forum are OUT of the market watching the events unfold - We have no concern as to whether the markets tanks, we merely mark time and bear witness, also we like to have fun guessing the future. Instead of crystal balls, tea leaves or bones we use current events as our harbingers. Now go away or I'll turn a fan on you.

-- Guy Daley (guydaley@bwn.net), February 27, 2000.

I have been rich and I have been poor and rich is better.

-- (MaeWest@whydochacomeup.andseemesometime), February 27, 2000.

Nothing-- I won`t have to "do the food and shelter thing without it"(money). I`m prepped! And continue adding to those preps. At this point, I can`t seem to stop myself from exhibiting such behavior. The craziness! Ahh, I wouldn`t have it any other way. Keep on preppin'.

-- NoJo (RSKeiper@aol.com), February 27, 2000.


If you have a 401K, pension fund, bank account, insurance agent, stocks of any kind, money in the BANK, CD's, etc, other than gold or silver coin, in hand, then you are still in the stock market.

When this puppy crashes, and if oil supply keeps drying up then the crash will occur within months, EVERYONE will be shocked to see how deeply invested EVERY financial transaction in the world was tied into this greatest BUll of all time.

You are not out of it (including myself) unless you are hunkered and bunkered and 100% self sufficient.

As for those who pray for it - go read a couple of hundred history books on how ugly people have gotten through-out history when times are tough or their dander is up - be careful, you might just get what you pray for.

-- dragonslayer (ohoh@hereitcomes.com), February 27, 2000.

Is Joe a 'nut' or what--I like this guy-- "you can't have your pudding if you don't eat your beets "

-- Task Master (TenHut@gitinline.com), February 27, 2000.

Joseph Almond:

You have the effrontery to call "America" pompous! America is 280 million people, very few of whom are pompous. You, however....

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), February 27, 2000.

As were growing up in the Depression one of little Mother Schenker's favorite cracks was, "Rich or poor, it's always good to have money."

Bill, preparing for deja vu.

-- William J. Schenker, MD (wjs@linkfast.net), February 27, 2000.

Hey No: Sometimes one reads words between the lines when in reaility there is only space. McNeff's reference to the "test" may simply be a reference to having the system survive real world uncontrolled circumstances and having the IT guys/gals consider surviving "passing the test." I have seen many MIS guru's watch an unplanned event and after sweating declaring how brilliant they were for having a system survive the event. Of course they never considered the circumstances but sometimes you just get lucky. They test for peak market action plus an estimated worst case extra because a crash today would involve many more transactions and much higher value than has been seen yet to date.

-- Squid (ItsDark@down.here), February 27, 2000.

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