Bruce Beach predictions on oil, stocks

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Date: 26 Feb 2000 22:47:43 -0000 To: List Member From: "Y2K People Finding People" Subject: In retrospect

Y2K People Finding People - http://www.webpal.org/list.htm

Things are happening quickly. It is our perception of time that is out of focus.

It took millennia for humankind to reach the point that it did 2,000 years ago. Someone who was suddenly transferred from 2,000 years ago to 1,600 years later would have found civilization considerably advanced but still comprehensible. Horsepower, waterpower and wind power, would be more advanced but still recognizable. Peasants would still live in dirt floored huts. There would be wonders, but they would be recognizable. The traveler might have thought himself in a different locale but not a different time. The perception of the universe would have remained much the same.

In the 300 years from 1,600 to 1,900 the world for our time traveler would have become unrecognizable. Steam power, the beginning of the horseless carriage, communication beyond the line of sight. Lighted communities, and many marvels to numerous to report.

One hundred years more and it would have been incomprehensible. Wide-body aircraft, freeways, skyscrapers, television, telephones, organ transplants, missiles, nuclear weapons, not to mention computers and the Internet.

I expect the next ten years to bring an equally large change in the affairs of mankind. It may initially be no more comprehended by the majority of mankind than would the intricacies of a modern lab or the activities on the Internet be comprehended by a present day member of a remote North African tribe.

The day to day activities of our present society, are so rapid and seemingly often irrational, that it may appear that there is no overall direction or pattern. Nevertheless there is an inexorable march towards a world social order, and a milieu that will eventually lead to spiritual maturation of the human race.

Trying to take the pulse of a society that is entering the phase of catastrophic change, is much like being on a small ship in the midst of a hurricane. Feeling, gauging and rolling with the irregular smashing rhythm of the storm seems both impossible and (to those without confidence in the bark) frightening.

I have no claims to prophethood or insight beyond the normal vail of man, but nevertheless I have tried to share with others some of my insights and expectations regarding our immediate future.

This is perhaps a moment to stop and evaluate how accurate my predictions have been to the moment. I have delayed this particular presentation so that you might see movement over the last 12 months to determine the reality of the trend.

On January 23rd, 1999 I wrote about Y2K---------> You don't need to worry about the banks, insurance companies, stock markets and other financial institutions. With all their money they are fixing their problems. The government, even given Congressman Horn's failing grade quarterly report, will probably get by with Social Security Unemployment Insurance and most anything else that is critical. (Although not without many glitches). Big Business certainly has the talent and resources to fix its own. The rest may muddle through. For over a year ahead I had been predicting a drop in the stock market in October 1999. Then on October 31st, 1999 I wrote regarding the stock market-----------> Yes! The WORST WEEKLY POINT DROP IN HISTORY! At this point I COULD say that I was vindicated. But that was not what I expected at all. I expected the Dow to go down and stay down.

I further stated on that same day------------>

Today, stock market figures (and today I could almost say the same for oil prices) may be practically meaningless. The market prices are obviously controlled (or at least effected) by some large institutional players. (Not to say that they will always be able to manage it.) The public participation is based on speculation rather than expectation of coupon returns on individual stocks reflective of economic productivity.

Nevertheless, on Nov. 21st, 1999 I wrote---------->

So, anyway, as a single measure, of whether Y2K had any effect, look at the pump prices in February. (Nov. 21, 1999)

I reiterated many times that Y2K would be like the two fellows fighting with such sharp razors, and the fellow cut would not even realize that he had been slashed.

I stated over and over again for many months ahead of time that my greatest concern about Y2K was that the public perception would be that there had not been a serious problem.

I moved my stock market expectations forward to February (the Dow dipped under ten thousand yesterday) and last November I established an exact marker on oil being $30 a barrel on February 15th. (It went to $30.05 on Valentine's Day - February the 14th.).

I explained in lengthy papers the reasons for my dire concerns about European Oil, the Russian Pipelines, the failure of refineries, and the overall impact this would have on the World Economy.

More particularly I emphasized my concerns about the hardening of U.S., Russian, Chinese, Taiwanese, Iranian, North Korean and other attitudes. While these are harder to quantify I personally feel that these have been more borne out that even the stock market and oil predictions.

The scenario remains. Worsening economic situation throughout the world. A world recession/depression combined with still increasing oil prices (and the particular marker of saying to watch the pump prices during the coming months). (Farmers and truckers will be particularly devastated). This will lead to increasing social disruptions and geopolitical strains that I personally feel makes WWIII imminent.

The falsely supposed cause - OPEC. The immediate cause - Y2K (I know that I am the only even semi-prominent Y2K prognosticator - still saying this). And the real underlying cause, the moral and spiritual depravity of mankind.

My reasons for re-iterating all this, is not to blow my own horn as a prognosticator, but simply to stop and evaluate the trend and to see how accurate it has been.

That you will have to judge for your self. You will have to decide whether any past degree of accuracy warrants careful consideration of what is predicted for the future.

This has been a week (and very possibly next week) of interesting occurrences. But perhaps more on that next time. This was a time for retrospection, introspection, and perspection.

Peace and love, Bruce Beach survival@webpal.org

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-- I'm (wondering@alot.now), February 27, 2000

Answers

"Muddle through" and "Charlotte's Web" pretty well sum things up.

Anyone here can find examples of each to make a list of companies long and distinguished.

At my end of the food chain I can not find three entries for a list of "new and improved."

-- Tom Beckner (becknert@xout.erols.com), February 27, 2000.


Good summarization of where we are and what is Happening. I would have to agree with almost everything you said. One thing I would have to take exception with is "we are headed towards world social order and spiritual maturation of the human race". I strongly believe these 2 things will never occur. The world social order is, as we know, already in the works for years. It may occur briefly for a few years. However, I believe that the Bible prophecies it will lead to the final battle - armageddon (sp?). There will never be heaven on earth because of sin - just can't happen - won't even come close! Some will however reach spiritual maturation - but it is only thru Jesus.

Its all taking place right now before our eyes - but probably a little slower than we think or hope!

-- Weasel (Heistheanswer@Bible.God), February 27, 2000.


TPTB and the general consensus is that we are heading towards spiritual maturation. A growing awareness of the good contained within all major religions and the need for respect and tolerance of all spiritual viewpoints.

In reality this growing "respect and tolerance" is achieved by the sacrifice of Truth on the altar of our personal pleasures. In reality we are headed for a One World Religion that most everyone will be excited about but in reality will be headed by the "Replacement Christ", a false Christ who appeals to all but is the Anti-Christ of Biblical lore. He "replaces" the true Christ in his rightful role.

Check it out: Eastern religion says that what we perceive as reality is really an illusion. Judaism and Islam say that what we perceive is real and not an illusion. Both groups say that God has spoken and told them this underlying belief. They both can't be right unless God is a schizoid and has lied to one of the main groups and thus would have flawed character and not be worthy of being God.

But one world religion style beliefs say that everyone is right. Intellectual suicide at its best.

Sorry that this post was so long.

-- Dana (A_Non_O_Moose@xxx.com), February 27, 2000.


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