"Veteran US technical trader Mr Bill McLaren, regarded as a trader's trader by analysts and a Gann trading method guru, has stuck his neck out and predicted the date of the next Wall Street crash. This is the scariest market I have seen and I have been in the markets since 1965. I have been very bullish for quite a while, but what we have seen in the last few weeks has got me worried."

Link To Full Article

-- Zdude (zdude777@hotmail.com), February 20, 2000

Answers

Zdude, Why the 16th?

-- John Q (resting@home.com), February 20, 2000.

He's got the LOW for March 16th: DOW @ 1100 .....

-- Squirrel Hunter (nuts@upina.cellrelaytower), February 20, 2000.

Cancel that question. Shame on me. I Read the link.

-- John Q (resting@home.com), February 20, 2000.

If he's the first "expert" to be right about a crash then I'm ready for it. But then I've been ready for some time. And it doesn't have me worried because I've been ready. In fact, I've had paper loss flu for months

-- Guy Daley (guydaley@bwn.net), February 20, 2000.

From the McLaren Report

02-17-00

S&P 500

I was looking for the market to back and fill this week but to immediately reverse a one day rally is scary. If the market took off to the upside this week it would negate the crash cycle, so the index is still right on track for a crash. In the last message I indicated the price level would be marginally above 1455-that should be 1444. It is also possible to still test the 1354 level before testing 1444. A high between Feb. 28th and March 2nd is the next to setting up the crash cycle.

ALL ORDS

Yesterdays reversal at new highs can be significant. Anytime the market shows a possible "false break" the trend can reverse. On the last message on Feb. 6th I said "the index is obviously not ready to go down." And the "much strong cycle" for a high was the 120 day cycle. the reversal day was on 119 days from low, one day early.

We now have the probability of a very bearish pattern. A down day today on increased volume would help to confirm that probability. But the strongest confirmation would be a rally that we can confirm as a counter trend.

Remember we have two long term cycles that have expired so a significant move down is probable.

-- kevin (innxxs@yahoo.com), February 20, 2000.

Same report one day earlier....

02-16-00

S&P 500 cash index

The last S&P message I indicated price would go down into the 15th for a low and rally up into the 2nd of March for a high (28th to 2nd) . Now that the index has proven the 120 day cycle, what do we need to see to confirm the crash scenario? Basically price should move to marginally above the last high (1455) and fail. Looking at the number of days between then and now, price would need to back and fill for five or six days. The cycles expiring on the first and second of March are quite strong and will change the trend but not in the same manner as if price were below 1459.

In order for a crash to occur, the market needs to be in a cash starved position. Currently equity mutual funds are at a 30 year low in cash but there is still large monthly inflows. Margin accounts are at record levels which could cause forced selling. So we do have the necessary lack of support (small cash in the hands of funds) and selling that can get out of hand due to margin calls. There also need to be some long term cycles expiring at the same time or a little earlier. This is also occurring.

But right now the market just gave an indication of finding a low on the 120 cycle and will now go up.

-- kevin (innxxs@yahoo.com), February 20, 2000.

Please don't groan (or at least don't do it loud enough to hurt my feelings) but astrologically this make perfect sense to me.

In my post "An Astrological Look at Nasdaq" http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=002SMt

I also made very brief comments on the DJIA as follows:

"Just out of curiosity, I also dug up the "birth" data for the DJIA and - you're not going to believe this - but it's got a Saturn OPPOSITION Saturn coming up towards the end of March (4th/10th house axis)with Pluto Opposition Pluto (5th/11th house axis) joining the party. I'll write more about this in detail later for the non-astrologers when I have time but from the looks of it - with all these hard Saturn angles - the markets are in for some very rough sailing in the upcoming months. argh"

Saturn, as I mentioned before, if a planet of difficulty, hardship and frustration. Currently it is in an angular relationship called an "opposition" and works just as the name implies. Saturn is at odds with itself as it's half way through its cycle and making necessary adjustments for its last leg home. The 4th house represents our Foundations - the bedrock upon which we stand - and in this case the financial markets, while the 10th house represents our Power, Destiny and those in Control. Both houses/areas will soon experience major shifs.

BUT...the really dastardly combo is the Pluto opposition Pluto in the 5th and 11th houses. Pluto is Ruler of the Underworld and has a nasty reputation of totally destroying things so they can be rebuilt. The 5th house represents - get this - SPECULATION, while the 11th house represents THE MASSES. So it would appear that the financial house of cards will come tumbling down on the gazillion and one investors still in the market, and in short order. There is no doubt that this event will unquestionably destroy their illusion of wealth and destabilize their Foundations and Destiny.

Amazing, scary stuff! Keep your preps!!!

-- LunaC (LunaC@LunaC.com), February 20, 2000.

LunaC,you and others probably don't know this,but EVERY major brokerage firm employs astrologers.They know about this cycle and have prepared for it for over a year.Only the little people will be hurt in this mishap!!

-- just a thought (tigerpm@netscape.com), February 21, 2000.

So, Just A Thought, who do I see about a job with them thar folks? har-har

-- LunaC (LunaC@LunaC.com), February 21, 2000.

that is a hoot, just a thought.

-- tt (cuddluppy@aol.com), February 21, 2000.

Snip from article:

"In January, US mutual funds had the lowest cash levels in 30 years. Those cash levels are what support the market when it starts to fall, so we don't have a lot of support in the market."

As a contrary indicator this has been an excellent market tool. At market bottoms, mutual funds are holding a lot of cash and at market tops they are holding very little. This % is available on a monthly basis in many business publications.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), February 21, 2000.

Are the conditions meant to be simliar now to those that prevailed in Oct 1987.

-- dick of the dale (richard.dale@unum.co.uk), February 21, 2000.

Someone (JPMorgan, Rockefeller???) once said:

It's better to get out six months early, than to be one day late.

or words to that effect.....

-- Craig (sofpj@netscape.net), February 21, 2000.