Heads up: Coronal Mass Ejection Headed for Earth This Weekend

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I guess we have to take this for what its worth, because I lifted it from Drudge who lifted it from the UK Press Association.

Here's the LINK.

But then, what I don't know about CMEs could fill a book.

-- semper paratus (still_here_with@my.pals), February 18, 2000


Long-time forum veterans will recall that this was a serious concern all along, as something that might happen concurrently with whatever computer disruptions we might have faced during the rollover.

A common reaction from people in the power industry was that they had learned a lot from the 1989 experience in Canada, and that much of the equipment is more rugged today than it was in 1989. Also, I gather that the 1989 event took them somewhat by surprise, e.g., because nobody was watching for it carefully. Now they ARE watching for it carefully, and they've got enough time to take some preventive measures.

That may not help the more sensitive, delicate equipment up in satellites, or possibly even down here on the ground. I wouldn't be surprised if we have problems with some cell phones and other forms of wireless communication, along with a few sensors and transmitters that get fried ...

An interesting question to consider: is the oil industry vulnerable to any disruptions from this source? I don't know why they should be, but I figure it doesn't hurt to ask...


-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), February 19, 2000.

This have potential to fry our 'puters? Should we unplug just in case?

-- Firemouse (firemouse@fcmail.com), February 18, 2000.

Looks like the sun is not compliant and the buffers are overflowing, right on schedule with plane crashes, stock market glitches, and everything else.

Jeeeezus, those astronauts up in the shuttle are going to be baaarrr-beeee-keeeoood! Crispy critters.

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), February 19, 2000.

Firemouse, there are some other links from earlier; this is for real. Could be moderate to severe. Apparently it'll be worse for whoever is facing the sun...might get to us at night and zap N. Europe. I think they burn out transformers on the grid and the electric goes off before your computer sizzles. Could be wrong. All these Y2K threats of rolling brownouts and blackouts and you never got top quality surge protectors yet? Hike out to Sears or Walmart first thing tomorrow!!

-- computers (gotta@stay.on), February 19, 2000.

Power Failure in Canada During 1989
On March 13th, 1989 a huge solar induced magnetic storm played havoc with the ionosphere, and the earth's magnetic field. This storm, the second largest storm experienced in the past 50 years, totally shut down Hydro-Quebec - the power grid servicing Canada's Quebec province.

Montreal, March 15, 1989

Hydro-Quebec confirms that the March 13 blackout was caused by the strongest magnetic storm ever recorded since the 735-kV power system was commissioned. At 2:45 a.m., the storm, which resulted from a solar flare, tripped five lines from James Bay and caused a generation loss of 9,450 MW. With a load of some 21,350 MW at that moment, the system was unable to withstand this sudden loss and collapsed within seconds, thereby causing further loss of generation from Churchill Falls and Mania-Outardes.

Magnetic storms affect power system behaviour, mainly in that they cause transformer saturation, which reduces or distorts voltage. Hydro-Quebec's long lines and static compensators make the system particularly sensitive to such natural phenomena. For example, analysing the events that caused the March 13 blackout, the utility's experts noted a coincidence between the exceptional intensity of the magnetic storm and the tripping of several static compensators, especially at Chibougamau and La Verendrye substations. Immediately after this loss, records show voltage oscillations and power-swings increasing until the the lines from James Bay were lost. Within seconds, the whole grid was out of service.

(For educational purposes only)

As I understand it, a CME sweeping the earth induces very large static charges between the ground and the upper atmosphere, which in turn induce transient voltages in long-line power transmission cables. With the results described above.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), February 19, 2000.

Got preps?

-- (kb8um8@yahoo.com), February 19, 2000.

This could cause cancer, cataracts etc. The recommeded (CDC) is:

Stay indoors. Only go out after dusk and before dawn. Your house will provide some protection.

You can get lead-lined drapes from upscale home furnishing stores (they're used in bedrooms to deaden sound). Use them as bedcovers.

Good luck to us all.

-- (.@...), February 19, 2000.

Could somebody link, please. http://sec.noaa.gov/pmap/index.html

Cool and informative site! Shows current passes of NOAA's polar satellite which monitors aurora activity. Also measures power flux which produces aurora and may cause grid/communication problem

-- BP (BParker201@aol.com), February 19, 2000.

I'm sitting here LOL at myself. I misread the subject...thought it said "Coronal Mass Erection" heading towards earth.

Just had to share that...no disrespect meant.

Quietly.... ROLFLOL

-- queitly (quielty@preparing.com), February 19, 2000.

As many of you know I have been watching and reporting here about Solar Max the "Other Y2K" this past year. A note of interest that I have discerned over that time. Jan Alverstad , who does the Solar Terrestrial report each day, was an open and reliable source for comments about the data he gathered from other sites. That is until the last quarter of last year. During the 90 day countdown to CDC, we experienced a couple of major spikes which would have been reason for excitement by Jan A. in historical corollaries. But immediately after an event that "may have" bridged a major event horizon, the site was down for almost a week, and when he began reporting again it was in a VERY subdued fashion. I could only guess at the cause. The site has repeatedly smoothed the curve since, IMHO, at least verbally. It has since been used repeatedly to calm fears with adjectives that suggest normalcy. So I personaly have had to read between the lines. Even the other sites from NASA have been more forthcoming with possible impacts of spikes. They were supposedly the ones doing the smoothing/soothing prior to this.

The original research I did suggested that the scientists expected something in the range of a 240 sunspot apex during Solar Max. As you can see from a bit of research, that parameter has been breached many times recently, and regularly during the end of cycle 23. I am not suggesting that we are in any danger from the bombardment of the magnetosphere in a direct physcial sense. But I find it well worth watching in the collateral sense.

As this particular event seems to have 'spiked' interest as well, I would like to repost some links that I've accumulated over the last year. Enjoy. I really like YPOP, because as it says, you may be the first one on earth to witness an event.


Link dxl solar

Link uvisun

Link space weather

Link science nasa

Link uleth

""Solar Warning Site"" Link

Link seismo

Link maj.com



Link lasco navy

Link harvard

Link sunspot noao

Link umbra

Link solar njit

Link First_light

Link uvisun

Link iris

Link ottawa

Link artrans

Oh nouice..shhhhh...{|}.peek... quiet...shhh! peek

Some more too

Link helios

No wonder I've got a stiff neck.

-- Michael (mikeymac@uswest.net), February 19, 2000.

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